Between the lines

NFL Playoffs

2007-01-15T11:21:00.000-05:00

Again, I'm not really posting on this blog anymore - I'm doing my work now on the Times Union site - but I wanted to get this out there: I'm really disappointed with ESPN.com's coverage of the NFL playoffs. There's a reporter-like story out there for each of the four games, with a story of how the game went and quotes - but no real analysis whatsoever. Really, would it be that hard to break down what happened? For the MLB playoffs, they had Keith Law and Rob Neyer breaking down every part of every game, and it was great. Come on, there are only four NFL games a weekend, why can't they get someone actually giving us what we want?

On a related note, I definitely believe Marty was not at fault for the Chargers loss, but he did do too much to prove that he was not a "conservative" coach, and put the game in Phillip Rivers' hands instead of his star, LDT. There were a number of times he should have handed it off or run a screen pass or something, but instead let Rivers throw the ball (the drive before the Pats' game-winning FG, LDT ran for six yards on first down...and then Rivers threw two passes? What the hell? There was plenty of time left). But, this morning, I go to ESPN.com (usually the best all-around sports site on the Internet) to try to find some decent analysis of yesterday's games...and I find this John Clayton story saying that Martyball was at fault and that, if Marty had been more aggressive, the Chargers would have won the game. Huh? Did Clayton even watch the game? Read through the story closely - doesn't it look like Clayton wrote the story on Saturday, before the game was played, and then added a couple numbers and quotes to make it seem accurate? Is anyone else with me?

Barry Zito

2006-12-28T15:14:00.000-05:00

I've basically given up on this blog to focus on my other one (read the post below), but I had to get this out there: The Zito contract (7 years, $126 mill) is absolutely the worst deal of the offseason. He doesn't throw even mid-90's, doesn't have a good second pitch after his curveball, and doesn't strike out anybody. Pitchers like that don't age well. I know starting pitching is hard to find, but Zito's getting the sixth-richest contract in baseball history. You can't tell me he's worth that kind of money.

Another thing to think about - here's a lefty (meaning he'll face a lot of right-handed batters) who relies on his breaking ball and can't miss bats. That means a lot of action for the left fielder, right? And who do the Giants have in left field? The corpse of Barry Bonds. Plus, Zito doesn't throw a lot of strikes, so he won't eat up as many innings as you'd expect for that kind of money.

A third thing: Each of Oakland's Big Three (Hudson, Mulder, Zito) starters threw a lot of innings early in their careers, and this year both Hudson and Mulder broke down. Zito's thrown 200+ IP each full year in the big leagues, and he's one year younger than the first two. Is it crazy to think the same will happen to Zito?

Three things that make this deal a little less terrible: 1)He's going to the NL, 2)He's going to a pretty big park, and 3)He won't have to be the Giants' #1 starter (Matt Cain). But they're still spending way too much money for an average #2 starter.

A couple other opinions that I might elaborate on someday:

Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmerio, etc. should be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

But Pete Rose should not.

Drew Brees for NFL MVP is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. LaDanian Tomlinson is having the single greatest season by anybody, at any position, in NFL history. Imagine if someone like A-Rod hit 90 home runs next year while playing solid defense at third, stealing 20 bases, and hitting .320. That's what Tomlinson's doing this year - his 31+ TDs are the home runs, the rushing yards are the batting average, the receiving yards are the stolen bases and all the other things (blocking for Rivers, opening up the field for Gates and the WRs, etc.) are the defense. What more could LDT possibly have done to win the MVP? (Of course, at this point, if A-Rod did that, he still might not win the MVP because he hit only .280 in the "clutch". The lesson, as always: People are stupid.)

The only reason David Stern introduced the new ball was to add points onto his scorers' totals. All the stars in the NBA right now are either outside shooters or finishers around the rim. The new ball bounced better around the rim and off the glass than the old one, making it easier to make shots - nobody's disputing that. But everybody kept complaining so much about the ball that Stern decided it would be better to end all the whining once and for all and cut his losses.

Terrell Owens is being poorly portrayed by the media, and is nothing close to a clubhouse cancer. I'd take him on my team anyday. (Kidding! Just making sure you were paying attention)

I hate Vince Young - Every time I say something bad about Vince Young (I thought USC would win last year's title game - I still believe they were the better team, Texas just got lucky; I also thought VY would suck in the NFL), he proves me wrong so completely that I now hate him. If I ever get into the Football Writers Association (or whatever the hell they call it), you're never getting my MVP vote...

Finally, "Drew Bledsoe's" blog is the funniest web site ever. If you don't think this is funny, either you hate sports or you have no soul. Either way, I feel bad for you.

Temporary Hiatus

2006-09-23T12:12:00.000-04:00

Between the Lines is on temporary hiatus right now as I decide what to do with it. I'm doing my current blogging on the Times Union site; my blog is Fan In Motion.

NL MVP

2006-09-13T22:04:00.000-04:00

Not that I want to get in the habit of these short, one-line posts, but:

Could Albert Pujols be victimized by the Dontrelle Willis Theory? Jayson Stark thinks he might.

The End of an Era

2006-09-13T07:30:00.000-04:00

Thought this was worth mentioning - for the first time in my life, the Braves are eliminated from the divisional race. What an amazing run.

Football Power Rankings: Week 2 (Pt 2)

2006-09-12T21:22:00.000-04:00

Part two of my power rankings coming up, but first some good news: My TU blog is getting underway. I've talked with Mike and Jim at the TU, and I will hopefully be up and running by this weekend. Now, on to the Class B, C, and D power rankings: (see yesterday for AA and A)

Class B:

1. Ravena 2-0
2. Cobleskill 2-0 (up 1)
3. Albany Academy 2-0 (up 2)
4. Hudson Falls 0-2 (down 2)
5. Hudson 1-1 (down 1)

Ravena is clearly the best team in the class. That's one thing that nobody's going to debate right now. And I think Cobleskill has to be #2, after good wins over Watervliet and Hudson. But that's where the easy picks end. I put AA at #3 despite the fact that I don't think they're really that good - wins over Fonda and Schalmont aren't very impressive. But who else should go there? HF is the most impressive 0-2 team in the section, but anytime you lose to South Glens Falls you're going down in my rankings. Hudson has a good claim to the #3 spot as well, after just barely losing (20-19) to Cobleskill.

6. Fonda 1-1 (up 1)
7. Schalmont 1-1 (up 1)
8. Johnstown 1-1 (down 2)
9. Broadalbin-Perth 1-1 (up 2)
10. Cohoes 0-2 (down 1)
11. Taconic Hills 0-2 (down 1)

I put Fonda here, but I'm not really sure they're better than any of the next three teams. A win at Taconic Hills isn't a great victory, but nobody else really has much more to hang their hat on. Johnstown is too small to stop a good rushing attack, but they might be good enough to beat mediocre teams. And Cohoes and Taconic Hills are the two worst teams in the class.

Class C:

1. Chatham 2-0 (up 1)
2. Hoosick Falls 2-0 (up 1)
3. Cambrige 1-1 (down 2)
4. Voorheesville 2-0 (up 7)
5. Lake George 2-0 (up 1)

Chatham and Hoosick Falls have to be ranked 1-2 here, though the order is debatable. Chatham has looked awfully great playing two mediocre teams, and Hoosick Falls has two good, fairly easy wins (Cambridge and the rebuilding Schuylerville). I'm still putting Cambridge at #3, partly because I want them to make me look good for initially ranking them #1 and partly because I can't justify putting anyone else at #3. None of the other 2-0 teams have any great wins - Voorheesville has beaten CCHS and Schuylerville; Lake George has victories over Warrensburg and Whitehall.

6. Mechanicville 2-0 (up 6)
7. Stillwater 2-0
8. Canajoharile 1-1
9. Watervliet 0-2 (down 4)
10. Schuylerville 0-2 (down 6)
11. Granville 1-1 (down 1)
12. Catholic Central 0-2 (down 3)
13. Granville 1-1 (down 3)
14. Corinth 1-1 (up 2)
15. Coxsackie 1-1
16. Tamarac 1-1 (down 2)
17. Hoosic Valley 0-2

I really don't know what to do with the second half of this class. Mechanicville and Stillwater are both still unbeaten, Canjo looks like a decent team and Watervliet should be playing better than they are. Schuylerville is in major rebuilding mode at this point after winning the class championship last year, and then you're stuck with a bunch of 1-1 teams who have beaten each other, so you really don't know who's better than who. CCHS was a trendy sleeper pick for this year, but they haven't played well. And sorry Hoosic Valley - there's always next year.

Class D:

1. Fort Edward 2-0 (up 1)
2. Salem 1-1 (down 1)
3. Rensselaer 1-1
4. Warrensburg 0-2
5. Whitehall 0-2
6. Bishop Gibbons 0-1

I finally made the switch, putting FE ahead of Salem. I still think Salem has a really good shot to win their 9/30 matchup (and more importantly the class title game), but so far FE has looked like the better team. Not much motion in these rankings, and I don't expect there to be much more movement before the season's over.

Football Power Rankings: Week 2 (Pt 1)

2006-09-10T20:51:00.000-04:00

I'm going to split my power rankings up into two parts - Class AA and Class A on Monday, and Class B, C, and D on Tuesday. With school starting, I don't have as much time to write as I used to, and so splitting it up makes it seem like I'm writing just as much while I'm actually taking away one post per week. But anyways, on to the rankings: (ranking, team, overall record, and change from last week are listed)

Class AA:

1. Saratoga 1-1 (up 1)
2. Colonie 1-1 (up 1)
3. Columbia 2-0 (up 7)
4. Queensbury 2-0 (up 5)
5. Guilderland 2-0 (up 9)

Ah, the mystery of Class AA. I think Saratoga is #1, and I'm sticking to it until proven otherwise. Colonie stays at #2 - I know Queensbury, Guilderland, and Columbia have better records, but would you really take any of them over Colonie, for one game, at this point? I wouldn't. Columbia has the best wins of the four unbeatens (@ LaSalle, vs Shen), so I'm giving them the #3 spot. Queensbury has looked extremely impressive in beating Nisky and CBA, and Guilderland is surprisingly 2-0.

6. Bethlehem 2-0
7. Shaker 1-1 (up 6)
8. CBA 0-2 (down 4)
9. Troy 1-1 (down 8)
10. LaSalle 1-1 (down 3)
11. Ballston Spa 1-1 (down 3)
12. Shen 0-2 (down 7)
13. Nisky 0-2 (down 2)
14. Albany 0-2 (down 2)
15. Schenectady 0-2

Bethlehem is 2-0, but the teams they've beat - Ballston Spa and Schenectady - are two teams that they should beat. Even though I have them ranked ahead of Shaker, I'd probably pick them to lose when they play the Bison this week. Shaker is coming off a big win against Colonie, and that loss to Guilderland doesn't look so bad anymore. CBA lost to the emerging Queensbury, so I won't drop them too far. There's slightly off, there's very wrong, and then there's me putting Troy at #1 last week. Boy, I wish I could have that one back. They're probably too far down now, but that's what they get for making me look like a fool last week. LaSalle should be better than this by the end of the season. Will Shen end the season at #12? Doubtful. But this still is just a shell of the Shen dynasties of the past, and this team is not a legit contender for the class title this year. I think putting Schenectady at the bottom is probably the surest pick of the bunch.

Class A:

1. Burnt Hills 2-0
2. Lansingburgh 2-0
3. Amsterdam 2-0 (up 1)
4. Bishop Maginn 1-1 (up 1)
5. Glens Falls 1-1 (down 2)

Burnt Hills stays at the top after a 42-7 thrashing of Glens Falls last week. Right now, the Spartans' rushing attack looks unstoppable - running backs DJ Moore and Kyle Holmes have combined for nine touchdowns in two games this season. Lansingburgh looked great against Mohonasen this week; their offense looks just as good right now with Kenny Youngs leading a potent rushing attack and Connor Gallo making plays through the air. But their defense worries me - they gave up two touchdowns on deep passes to wide-open recievers, and were called for a number of personal fouls. Amsterdam has not looked good at all this season, but they are 2-0. And sometimes the mark of a great team is that they win games even when they play terribly. Maginn might not be a better team than GF, but they certainly looked better last week. Glens Falls has some talent, but they appeared to sorely miss all-state WR Jimmer Fredette last week (he's not playing this year to focus on hoops) - their offense was shut out by a very strong Spartans defense, as their only points came off a David White kickoff return.

6. Mohonasen 1-1
7. Gloversville 1-1
8. Scotia 0-2 (up 1)
9. Averill Park 0-2 (down 1)
10. South Glens Falls 1-1

Mohon looked okay against Lansingburgh, but didn't have enough talent to compete for the full four quarters. Gloversville's victory over AP solidifies them as the #7 team in the class. You could probably make a case for Scotia or AP in the eighth slot - I picked Scotia because they've played two top-three temas - but we'll see who's better next week, when the two square off in Averill Park. SGF got a nice win last week over Hudson - snapping an 11-game losing streak - but they're still probably the worst team in the class this year.

Looking Forward

2006-09-10T12:38:00.000-04:00

We're two weeks into the high school football season, so we can (for the most part) tell who the contenders are. So today I'll look at the contenders in Class A-D and their schedules for the coming weeks, to see where they might be at the end of the month. Class AA is too hard to look at right now; there are ten teams that might be good enough to make a deep playoff run. I'll try to sort out that mess sometime later this week. But the other four classes are a bit clearer.

Class A:

Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake (2-0) - BH-BL has two wins so far, a 32-13 victory over Gloversville and then a 42-7 domination of Glens Falls last week. Burnt Hills also has the advantage that they play in the weaker division, so the next-best team in the division is Bishop Maginn (as opposed to Division II, which houses L'burgh, Amsterdam, and Glens Falls). They don't have to play the Knights or the Rams during the regular season, and their toughest divisional play test comes next week when they play Maginn at home. The only game they are likely to lose is at the end of the month, when the play at 2-0 Queensbury.

Upcoming Schedule: 9/15 vs Maginn, 9/21 vs Mohon, 9/30 @ Queensbury

Amsterdam (2-0) - The Rams have not looked good in either of their two wins (at Maginn and Scotia), but they still are the defending state champs and they still are 2-0. The Rams also have time to straighten things out - they don't play Glens Falls or Lansingburgh until October. So Amsterdam should be 5-0 by the time the calendar turns.

Upcoming Schedule: 9/15 vs S. Glens Falls, 9/21 @ Averill Park, 9/29 vs Gloversville

Lansingburgh (2-0) - The Knights have posted a couple wins over the bottom class of Class A - at Scotia and home against Mohon. But they have looked very impressive in doing so. When the Knights take on Amsterdam on October 13th, it could very likely be for the Division II title. The Knights go on the road for the next two weeks - first against Gloversville and then against contender Glens Falls before an interesting home game against Class B contender Hudson.

Upcoming Schedule: 9/15 @ Gloversville, 9/21 @ Glens Falls, 9/29 vs Hudson

Other Contenders:

Bishop Maginn (1-1) - 9/15 @ BH-BL, 9/21 vs Scotia, 9/29 @ Averill Park
Glens Falls (1-1) - 9/15 @ Mohon, 9/21 vs Lansingburgh, 9/29 vs SGF

Class B:

Ravena (2-0) - Ravena has looked like the best team so far, beating Hudson Falls and Johnstown. In the coming weeks, they have two easily winnable games sandwiched around one very interesting matchup - a 9/22 game in Hudson. That game could decide the Reinfurt Division championship.

Upcoming Schedule - 9/15 vs Taconic Hills, 9/22 @ Hudson, 9/29 vs Cohoes

Cobleskill (2-0) - Cobleskill looks like the best team in the West division right now after a very good 20-19 win at Hudson. Hudson Falls is probably the second-best team in the division, but right now they're 0-2. Cobleskill should win their next three (or next two, at the very least), but nothing is a guarantee in the world of high school sports.

Upcoming Schedule - 9/15 vs Schalmont, 9/23 @ Fonda, 9/29 vs Hudson Falls

Albany Academy (2-0) - The Cadets are 2-0, but have beaten a couple mediocre teams (Fonda, Schalmont). They won't be tested for the next three weeks either, so this is another team that will almost surely enter October unbeaten. That's when things get interesting for the Cadets, with home games against Hudson and Ravena.

Upcoming Schecule - 9/15 @ CCHS, 9/22 @ Cohoes, 9/29 @ Taconic Hills

Hudson (1-1) - Hudson should be a good team this year, with a 33-0 drubbing of Broadalbin-Perth and a close 20-19 loss to Cobleskill. They have a very tough schedule for the coming weeks, however; after a game against cohoes, they have to play Ravena and then at Lansingburgh. Hard to see the Blue Hawks winning all three games, although only the former two are league games.

Upcoming Schedule - 9/15 vs Cohoes, 9/22 vs Ravena, 9/29 @ L'burgh

Other Contenders:

Hudson Falls (0-2) - 9/16 @ Fonda, 9/23 vs Broadalbin-Perth, 9/29 @ Cobleskill

Class C:

Chatham (2-0) - Chatham has shown that they have no trouble beating the lesser teams, with a 71-7 drubbing of Hoosic Valley and a 47-7 victory over CCHS already under their belt. But how will they fare against the better teams? We should know more after the next two weeks, games at Coxsackie and against Voorheesville. Still, the South division looks like the easiest in Class C, and I would not be surprised to see Chatham run the table.

Upcoming Schedule - 9/16 @ Coxsackie, 9/22 vs Voorheesville, 9/29 @ Tamarac

Stillwater (2-0) - I still don't know whether Stillwater is a contender or a pretender, as their two wins have came over middle-of-the-pack teams (Granville, Canajoharie). But we should know a lot more about them after one of next week's best games, when Hoosick Falls comes to town. They also happen to have a bye week on the 29th-30th. If they beat Hoosick Falls, they will have a very good chance to run the table the rest of the way.

Upcoming Schedule - 9/16 vs Hoosick Falls, 9/23 vs CCHS, 9/29 bye

Hoosick Falls (2-0) - Hoosick Falls probably looks like the best team in the section right now, with dominating victories over last year's Class C champion Schuylervile and last year's Class D champion Cambridge. The aforementioned game at Stillwater next week is their last test, as the rest of their schedule looks very easy.

Upcoming Schedule - 9/16 @ Stillwater, 9/22 vs Mechanicville, 9/30 @ Hoosic Valley

Cambridge (1-1) - Maybe Cambridge isn't as good as I think they are, but I still am holding fast to my belief that last week's game was an aberration and the Indians can compete with the best of Class C. They play at Lake George next week in a game that will solidify one or the other as a legit contender in the class. After that, Cambridge's toughest matchup is an October 6th matchup at slumping Schuylerville.

Upcoming Schedule - 9/15 @ Lake George, 9/23 vs Corinth, 9/30 vs Greenwich

Other Contenders:

Voorheesville (2-0) - 9/16 vs Watervliet, 9/22 at Chatham, 9/30 vs Coxsackie
Mechanicville (2-0) - 9/16 vs Hoosic Valley, 9/22 @ Hoosick Falls, 9/30 vs CCHS
Lake George (2-0) - 9/15 vs Cambridge, 9/23 @ Granville, 9/29 vs Schuylerville

Class D:

Salem (1-1) - Realistically, the only contenders in Class D are Salem and Fort Edward, though Rensselaer and Warrensburg might be able to pull an upset. We'll find out who the best team in the class is on September 30th, when Salem hosts Fort Edward. And, as of right now, none of the other games really matter.

Upcoming Schedule - 9/16 vs B. Gibbons, 9/23 vs Whitehall, 9/30 vs Ford Edward

Fort Edward (2-0) - Not much more to say.

Upcoming Schedule - 9/16 vs Whitehall, 9/23 vs Rensselaer, 9/30 @ Salem

===============

Quick note: Combined 2005 record of the four NFL teams on local TV right now (Philly-Houston, NYJ-Tennessee): 16-48. Ugh.

9/9 Results

2006-09-09T23:46:00.000-04:00

Quick list of today's games (hopefully more about this tomorrow):

Broadalbin-Perth 46, Cohoes 0
Coxsackie-Athens 33, Hoosic Valley 6
Mechanicville 34, Watervliet 22
Albany Academy 44, Schalmont 0
Stillwater 35, Granville 6
Corinth 20, Warrensburg 6
Fort Edward 35, Taramac 0
South Glens Falls 6, Hudson Falls 0
Lake George 22, Whitehall 8

Pretty impressive for SGF to pull out a win at Hudson Falls - they were the team that almost beat Ravena last week. I guess that shows the strength of Class A this year. More coming tomorrow.

9/8 Recap

2006-09-09T12:10:00.000-04:00

Saw parts of two games yesterday - Johnstown-Ravena and Mohon-Lansingburgh. I'll give my thoughts on both games.

Johnstown-Ravena: I only stayed for the first six minutes or so of the game, but I didnt' miss much the rest of the way. By the time I left, the score was 13-0 in Ravena's favor, Johnstown had yet to run a single offensive play, the ball had yet to cross Ravena's 40-yard-line (Johnstown opened with an onside kick), and Ravena had run a total of zero pass plays. Johnstown was simply too small to stop Ravena's rushing attack. Pat Filkins was the star of the show, following up last week's 300-yard performance with a 179-yard game today. Mike Fortier also ran for triple digits, and the two combined for five touchdowns.

Johnstown opened with an onside kick that Ravena recovered, and things went downhill from there. The Indians marched down the field with a four-minute drive, capped off by Fortier's ten-yard run that found the end zone. On the ensuing kickoff, Johnstown's kick returner (don't remember who it was) ran the kick back to about the 20 before being stripped by a Ravena player (I believe it was Nate Graham). A couple plays later, Filkins found the end zone to make it 13-0.

Filkins' TD run didn't look extremely impressive, but I found it amazing - it was a sweep to the left, but the toss was thrown behind him too much. Filkins had to turn around to catch the ball, spun back to face forward, and then dodged a couple defenders to score. I don't know how exactly how impressive that is - I have never been a running back - but I don't think I'd be coordinated enough to catch that ball without falling flat on my face, let alone taking it in for a touchdown. Filkins is the single most important player in Class B this year. Ravena rolled to a 47-7 win.

And one more quick note about that game - have you ever looked at Ravena's uniforms closely? They look like a cross between Florida State and the Oregon Ducks. They have the same logo on their helmet as FSU, and the same strange bright green-bright yellow color scheme as Oregon. Here's a picture if you want to see - I think it's from last year, but they haven't changed much.

Mohon-Lansingburgh: This game was much more entertaining. When I got there, the score was 8-0 Lansingburgh and the first quarter was almost over. The first thing that stood out to me was how many people were there - Lansingburgh's stadium has a huge set of bleachers, and they were just about 100% full. I didn't bring a camera (that's something I will start doing in the future), but it got very loud at some points. Unless the stadium is packed, football games at this level usually don't get very loud, mainly because the field is so far away from the crowd (as opposed to, say, basketball games, where the crowd is often right up on the court and the sound echoes around the gym).

Lansingburgh seemed content to run the football, and their triple-option offense was picking up yards early on. But in the middle of the second quarter (14-0 L'burgh), Mohon's offense started rolling. Star QB Patrick Barnes took off on a 30-yard run, and the Knights were called for a late hit afterwards, moving the ball to Lansingburgh's 20. Then, on a 4th-and-16 (from the 26), Barnes hit Josh Provost in the end zone to make the score 14-6. I don't know how Lansingburgh could possibly give up a touchdown there - they knew Barnes was going for the end zone, and they still didn't stop him. The Knights' safety did slip a little, but he was beaten anyhow. Great throw by Barnes as well.

A couple minutes later, Lansingburgh fumbled the ball around midfield, and Mohon recovered. On the next play, Barnes hit Provost deep - he was wide open - and Provost took it in 52 yards for a touchdown. But the 2-point conversion was no good, and the Knights scored again to take a 22-12 halftime lead.

Opening the third quarter, Lansingburgh's rushing attack was unstoppable - I believe they ran off gains of around 20, 15, 10, 6, and then an 11-yard TD on consecutive plays. Mohon needed a touchdown on the next drive to stay in the game. And their offense was ready, with a great drive that kept moving the chains and gave them a 1st-and-goal on Lansinburgh's one-yard-line. But the Knights' defense stepped up, and Mohon never saw the end zone. Lansingburgh got the ball back inside their own five, and put the final nail in the Warriors' coffin - touchdown pass from QB Connor Gallo to Kenny Youngs that went 98 yards. Youngs also had a 95-yard INT return for a touchdown earlier in the game (the score that I missed); that kid is fast. I haven't seen many teams play yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's the fastest player in the section. Youngs also added two rushing touchdowns in the game.

Does anyone know how many times a 98-yard TD pass has occured in recent Section 2 history? I don't know much about the history of high school football, but I would like to know when that's happened before. I can't imagine that's a record - if anybody reading this has any stories they'd like to share, e-mail me (mailto:betweenthelines@nycap.rr.com) and I'll post them.

Final score was L'burgh 34, Mohon 12, though the game was actually a lot closer than that. Take away Mohon's late fumble inside Knights territory and add a couple inches on one of their goal-line plays, and the score could have been 28-25. But that's the way the game of football goes.

Mohon is a decent team, and if they play well they could catch a good team off guard and pull off an upset. But they're not close to being playoff contenders. Lansingburgh, on the other hand, is almost certainly one of the top two teams in the class at this point, given lackluster performances last night by Glens Falls and Amsterdam.

The one thing that seemed strange to me about this game was the number of mental mistakes. There were quite a lot of penalties, and not the normal kind like holding - I counted two illegal procedures and four personal fouls in the second quarter alone. And the Knights' secondary seemed very confused at times. If they fix these issues, Lansingburgh will be a great team this year - QB Connor Gallo really impressed me yesterday; he wasn't asked to make many plays, but when he needed to, he delivered - and Youngs is a great player no matter how you slice it. But great teams can't afford to make the number of mistakes the Knights did yesterday, especially once you get towards the end of the season.

(On the flip side, Mohon could be one of the most fun teams to watch this year. They will be playing from behind a lot, and QB Patrick Barnes can really throw the ball. If you get bored by the run-left, run-right, run-middle offense that so many teams like to play at this level, go watch the Warriors play.)

Other Games:

Class AA:

Shaker 20, Colonie 19 - Colonie scored a touchdown with about a minute left in the game to make the score 20-19, but went for the two-point conversion and failed. I don't think this was a bad decision - the extra point at this level is probably only made around 50% of the time (at least early in the year), so you might as well go for the win. But Colonie losing, combined with a lot of the other scores, makes it clear that there is no clear favorite in Class AA.

Columbia 17, Shen 7 - After losing at home last week to Troy, Shen goes down again to Columbia. The road doesn't get much easier for the Plainsmen, as they have to play Saratoga next week. The Blue Devils now are 2-0, beating last year's best teams (LaSalle, Shen) that are now bad. How good are they? Well, they are one of only 4 unbeaten teams remaining, but only time will tell how good they really are.

Saratoga 55, Albany 14 - Saratoga will probably be at the top of my power rankings next week, despite losing to Colonie in Week 1. But Albany is not a very good team this year, so there still are questions about how good the Blue Streaks really are. There aren't really any standout players for Saratoga (yet) - 8 different players scored TDs yesterday for the Blue Streaks.

Queensbury 21, CBA 13 - How good is Queensbury? I have no idea. They've beaten a Nisky team that was supposed to be pretty good but lost to LaSalle yesterday, and a CBA team that hasn't played anybody else in the section. The Spartans running game led by Brad Middleton produced 289 yards and 2 TDs yesterday. Queensbury plays Colonie next Saturday and then Saratoga the week after that, so we should know how good they are soon.

LaSalle 20, Nisky 7 - Nisky will have some trouble generating offense this season. Look for more of these 21-14, 26-12 type games for Nisky down the line. As for LaSalle, they finally put some points on the board after losing 7-6 last week, and they improve to 1-1.

Guilderland 13, Troy 0 - Arguably the most surprising result of the weekend. Troy looked like one of the best teams in the section last week, but they only got 54 yards of total offense in their loss to a surprising 2-0 Dutchmen team. Now Troy is 1-1, and in the pack of "Teams that might be great or might not be that good at all", along with Colonie, LaSalle, Columbia, Guilderland, Queensbury, CBA, Bethlehem and Shaker (am I forgetting anyone?).

Class A:

BH-BL 42, Glens Falls 7 - Well, I was wrong about Troy being #1 in Class AA. And it looks like I was wrong about Cambridge being #1 in Class C as well (see below). But it looks like I was right about one thing - Burnt Hills is the best team in Class A. Glens Falls came into the game as one of the top four teams in the class (A'dam and L'burgh the other two), and they were playing at home. But they couldn't stop the steamroller that is the Spartans' rushing attack. Kyle Holmes scored three TDs and DJ Moore added two more, and Burnt Hills' great defense held Glens Falls' great ariel attack scoreless (their only points came off a David White kick return).

Amsterdam 30, Scotia 20 - Amsterdam continues to let teams hang around, as the score was 20-13 at the half in Scotia's favor. Scotia is a decent team but not anything close to a contender; the Rams should have won going away. The Rams still are the defending state champs and they still are unbeaten, but they're not going to even make the section title game if they keep playing like this.

Class B:

Cobleskill 20, Hudson 19 - This was a big game between two title contenders, and it lived up to the hype. Hudson took a 13-0 lead in the first quarter, but Cobleskill came back with two TDs in the fourth to win. Ravena still is probably better than either of these teams.

Class C:

Hoosick Falls 31, Cambridge 14 - Two great teams squared off last night, and Hoosick Falls was the greater. I still like Cambridge as a sleeper in the playoffs, but they didn't have enough to match Hoosick Falls last night. I haven't seen any Class C action this year, so I can't comment too much on it. QB Rollie O'Brien scored three rushing touchdowns for the Panthers.

Chatham 47, CCHS 7 - Chatham has now outscored their opponents 118-14 this year. Granted, Hoosic Valley and CCHS aren't exactly powerhouses, but still. Josh Hutchinson was the star for Chatham, scoring four TDs.

Voorheesville 7, Schuylerville 3 - Didn't want to say much other than that last year's section champion, Schuylerville, is now 0-2.

Class D:

Salem 35, Greenwich 34 (2 OT) - Nice win for Salem over a Class C team. I still think Salem will be the best team in a mediocre Class D this year.

Other scores:

Bethlehem 14, Ballston Spa 7
Bishop Maginn 32, Schenectady 12
Canajoharie 27, Rensselaer 8
Fonda 14, Taconic Hills 6
Gloversville 21, AP 14

Week 2 Preview

2006-09-07T21:00:00.000-04:00

(Forgot to publish this in the afternoon...)

Three huge football games today around the capital region. I'm going to break them down somewhat for you right now.

Class A: BH-BL @ Glens Falls

I've had Burnt Hills at the top of my initial preview and my week 1 power rankings. But that was not an easy choice. One could also justifiably put last year's Class B section winner Lansingburgh, reigning state champ Amsterdam or Glens Falls at #1. Burnt Hills went on the road and beat Gloversville 34-13 last week, while Glens Falls enjoyed a 35-0 shutout of Averill Park. QB Danny Wilhelm led the way for GF with a rushing TD and two more in the air. But the defense was spectacular, allowing no points and putting seven on the board themselves (a Harrison Barton interception returned for a touchdown). Meanwhile, the Burnt Hills ground game was sensational last Friday, with the two-headed monster of Kyle Holmes and DJ Moore combining for 289 yards and four touchdowns. Kris Barone did play very well as quarterback for Gloversville, racking up 270 passing yards and two TDs, but they still only put 13 points on the board. This game should be very interesting on both sides of the ball - BH-BL's vaunted ground game will be the first real test for the GF defense, while Wilhelm's ariel attack will test the Spartans' defense. My pick: BH-BL 33, Glens Falls 20

Class B: Cobleskill @ Hudson

Cobleskill and Hudson are back-to-back on my power rankings (#3 and #4, respectively) after impressive wins over Watervliet and Broadalbin-Perth. With Lansingburgh gone, there's no clear favorite in the class (especially after Ravena almost lost to Hudson Falls last week), and both teams have a realistic shot at the Class B crown. Cobleskill beat Watervliet 44-21 last week, while Hudson blanked Broadalbin-Perth 33-0. Nick DeChristopher and Aaron Christman rushed for a combined four TDs and almost 200 yards for Cobleskill, but Willie Simon scored four touchdowns himself for the Blue Hawks. I can't really find any reason to pick one team over the other, so I'll go with home-field advantage as the deciding factor and take Hudson. My pick: Hudson 27, Cobleskill 26

Class C: Cambridge @ Hoosick Falls

Cambridge is new this year in Class C (jumping up from D last year), but they already earned the top spot on my Class C power rankings. They crushed Salem 35-0 in the season opener. Their spread offense is very impressive (and, by all accounts, a hell of a lot of fun to watch), but it was RB Sam Luke doing most of the scoring for the Indians last Saturday - 184 rushing yards and three TDs. But Hoosick Falls will be near the top of the class this year as well. The Panthers beat Schuylerville, 41-24, in a rematch of last year's class title game. Senior RB Jon Burns ran for 215 yards and three TDs, leading the way for Hoosick Falls. This is another hard-to-predict game - it will be a great test for both defenses and offensive lines, not to mention the running backs themselves. But I think that Cambridge's offense is too versitile to beat here. My pick: Cambridge 42, Hoosick Falls 27

Some other games to keep your eye on this weekend:

Lasalle @ Nisky - will any of the middle-of-the-pack AA teams emerge as a title contender?
Chatham @ CCHS - will CCHS recover from a bad loss, or will Chatham put up 71 points again?
Mohon @ Lansingburgh - L'burgh should win this game, but Mohon is not a bad team.

Full NFL Preview

2006-09-05T13:07:00.000-04:00

Now that school has started, I'll be posting a lot less frequently - my weekends will still be full of high school football previews and recaps, but I won't have much else. Here's my full NFL preview, in which I recap my division picks and pick my Super Bowl winner. Today's post is lacking in one thing - research. I basically made up numbers for the playoff games using incorrect perceptions from last year. So, if you bet on these teams, and lose...well, then you deserve to lose your money, letting a 15-year-old tell you who to wager on. But I digress. If you haven't already, you may want to check out my division-by-division previews:

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West

And, because you probably don't want to go through all of those, I'll do a quick recap:

Teams that will be better than you think:
Arizona
Detroit
Kansas City (because people think they're going to bust this year)
Cleveland

Teams that will be worse than you think:
Baltimore (not sure where that bandwagon came from)
Pittsburgh (and that was before Roethlisburger's emergency appendectomy)
NY Giants (the schedule's too tough for them to make the playoffs)
Philadelphia (some people really like this team for some reason)
Seattle (has to fight the SB loser curse and the Madden curse)

So here's what I think the playoffs will look like, round-by-round:

AFC:

#1 Indianapolis
Bye

#5 Kansas City 32
#4 New England 21

#2 Denver
Bye

#6 Jacksonville 13
#3 Cincy 30

NFC:

#1 Carolina
Bye

#5 Tampa Bay 24
#4 Chicago 14

#6 Washington 21
#3 Arizona 24

#2 Dallas
Bye

Round 2:

#5 Kansas City 13
#1 Indianapolis 17

#3 Cincinatti 31
#2 Denver 30

#5 Tampa Bay 31
#1 Carolina 17

#3 Arizona 30
#2 Dallas 13

AFC Championship Game:

Cincy 41, Indy 21

NFC Championship Game:

Tampa 27, Arizona 17

Super Bowl XLI:

Cincy 31, Tampa 13

But, as I said, ~~not much~~ ~~very little~~ absolutely no research or thought whatsoever went into these playoff picks.

The Dontrelle Willis Corollary

2006-09-05T12:25:00.000-04:00

Last week, I discussed the MVP balloting, and specifically why Jeter shouldn't win the AL MVP. My pick for the AL was Johan Santana, for the NL Albert Pujols (though today I would say Ryan Howard). But now I'm going to tell you exactly why you shouldn't do what I just did, and why every media outlet should follow suit.

Let's take a look at last year's NL Cy Young. Chris Carpenter won the award, with a 21-5 record and a 2.83 ERA. Dontrelle Willis came in second with a 22-10 record and a 2.63 ERA. Aren't Willis' numbers more impressive?

One might argue that, although Willis had one more win, he also had five more losses. But, historically, wins have been the most important category in Cy Young voting (not saying it's a good thing, just saying it's true), and voters usually don't look at the number of losses. And Willis' Marlins finished barely above .500, while Carpenter's Cardinals won 100 games. So Willis was pretty obviously the better pitcher.

One could also argue that Carpenter is more well-liked than Willis. But that would be false, as Carpenter was one of the most overlooked pitchers in baseball until last year, while D-Train was arguably the most popular player in the sport during his brilliant rookie season of '03.

So why did Carpenter win the Cy Young award? Here's my theory, and I'm calling it the Dontrelle Willis Corollary in honor of the pitcher last year who proved it true. In early August last year, the Cy Young in the NL was a two-horse race - Carpenter and Roger Clemens. Carpenter had a 16-4 record and a 2.24 ERA; Clemens had an 11-4 record and a 1.45 ERA. Willis had a 3.03 ERA and a 14-7 record; very good numbers but not nearly good as the others'. So nobody was following him in the Cy Young chase.

What happened? Willis pitched great for the rest of the year, posting a 1.72 ERA and an 8-3 record the rest of the way. But because people were only following Carpenter and Clemens, Willis' run went almost unnoticed, while everyone saw that Carpenter had the better last month or so than Clemens. And the main problem here was that because every talk show host and baseball writer was forced to pick their winner in August, everyone narrowed down the candidates to just two (bolded because that sentence summarizes the point of this post). I doubt this was a big problem before the big media explosion and the Internet, and I think the only solution is to stop predicting winners in August.

You want another example? Try the other league. I'll leave out most of the stats, but Bartolo Colon (21-8, 3.48 ERA) won the award, while Johan Santana (16-7, 2.87 ERA) came in third. Santana pitched great in August and September, so his stats went unnoticed by most people. In August, the only two decent candidates were Colon and Mariano Rivera, so everybody watched only those two (and of course Colon won because relievers never win).

Now, under normal circumstances, Colon might have won anyways, due to his inflated win total. But the voting would have been very close. Last year, Colon recieved 17 first-place votes to Santana's 3. Just another example of the Dontrelle Willis Corollary.

This usually doesn't happen with MVP awards, for one reason: MVPs are almost always from playoff teams, so if a team makes a late run at the playoffs, people will notice and look for an MVP from that team. Case in point: The 2004 AL MVP race. Going into the last two weeks of the season, it was a three-horse race, with Vlad Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, and Manny Ramirez the three candidates (and David Ortiz a close fourth*). But over the last two weeks, Vlad put up astronomical numbers, taking the Angels on his back and propelling them to the playoffs (by one game over Oakland). The voters saw Anaheim's surge over the last two weeks and saw what Vlad had done, and he won the MVP by a comfortable margin. So MVP awards usually are an exception (though Vlad was in that race even before his hot stretch).

So who could be victimized by the Dontrelle Willis Corollary this year? The biggest race I see is the AL MVP. It was a two-horse race, Ortiz and Jeter, up through the middle of August. Then the Yankees swept the Sox, and it became Jeter's MVP to lose. I am convinced that about one-third of the writers will vote for Jeter based solely on the fact that he was the top candidate two weeks ago, no matter what happens over the last month of the season. Even if Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, or anybody else puts up great numbers, they will be fighting long odds to get an MVP trophy.

Another, lesser-known race: the AL Cy Young. This probably isn't a great example; neither pitcher plays in a big media market, so this race isn't being followed my most of America. But, ever since Liriano got hurt, the AL Cy Young has been a two-man race - Johan Santana and Roy Halladay. If someone else (say, a Chien-Ming Wang or a Justin Verlander) gets hot over the last month, they may be overlooked. (Though I can't see anyone overtaking Santana as the best pitcher in the AL).

Any thoughts on this? Am I crazy? I haven't seen anyone else with this view, so I'd like to know what you think.

*Quick anecdote on this - I brought up Ortiz' name in MVP discussion with my friend as the season was ending, and he said, "Ortiz? He can't win the MVP. He's not clutch." Then, in the playoffs and the years to come, Ortiz became arguably the most clutch hitter the game has ever seen. True story.

Football Power Rankings: Week 1

2006-09-04T12:42:00.000-04:00

Something seems to be going wrong with the Blogger site today (at least on my computer), so things are moving really slowly. Hopefully it'll be fixed soon. But today I'll give you my high school football power rankings after Week 1 of the football season. The initial rankings I'm using were my rankings in Friday's preview.

Class AA:

1. Troy 1-0 (up 1)
2. Saratoga 0-1 (down 1)
3. Colonie 1-0 (up 2)
4. CBA 0-1 (down 1)
5. Shen 0-1 (down 1)

I still think that, by the end of the season, Saratoga will be the best team in the section. But they lost last week, and Troy won a big game at Shen. Troy should finish the season undefeated; they don't really have any tough games left on their schedule and nobody else really seems good enough to go unbeaten. Colonie moves up two spots due to their big win over Saratoga, but I don't think they were the better team. CBA lost, but to a pretty good section three team, so I don't know how good they will be. Shen did not look good against Troy.

6. Bethlehem 1-0 (up 2)
7. LaSalle 0-1 (down 1)
8. Ballston Spa 1-0 (up 3)
9. Queensbury 1-0 (up 3)
10. Columbia 1-0 (up 3)
11. Niskayuna 0-1 (down 3)
12. Albany 0-1 (down 2)
13. Shaker 0-1 (down 3)
14. Guilderland 1-0 (up 1)
15. Schenectady 0-1 (down 1)

I don't want to move anybody too much, as they only played one game. But it's obvious that some teams aren't as good as we thought. Bethlehem gets the sixth spot by default (my #6, #7, and #9 teams last week all lost), and LaSalle stays at seven despite falling to Columbia. I still think LaSalle will be better than they were last week. Ballston Spa, Queensbury, and Columbia are the big movers after beating Albany, Nisky, and LaSalle, respectively. Shaker should not have lost to Guilderland, but should still be the better team over the course of the season.

Class A:

1. Burnt Hills 1-0
2. Lansingburgh 1-0 (up 1)
3. Glens Falls 1-0 (up 1)
4. Amsterdam 1-0 (down 2)
5. Bishop Maginn 0-1 (up 1)

I'm keeping Burnt Hills at the top of my rankings after their 34-13 defeat of Gloversville. Lansingburgh entered Class A with a bang on Friday, taking apart Scotia 52-8. And Glens Falls blanked AP, 35-0. Amsterdam probably should still be higher than fourth, but they barely squeaked by Maginn, 13-12. I know Maginn will be good this year (hence the #5 ranking), but the Rams were not impressive at all in that game.

6. Mohonasen 1-0 (down 1)
7. Gloversville 0-1
8. Averill Park 0-1
9. Scotia 0-1
10. South Glens Falls 0-1

Mohon moves down through no fault of their own; but Maginn was impressive enough against Amsterdam to jump in front of them. The last three - AP, Scotia, and SGF - all could be put in basically any order; each was beaten badly by a much better team. So I stuck with my original rankings, as there was no reason to do otherwise.

Class B:

1. Ravena 1-0
2. Hudson Falls 1-0 (up 1)
3. Cobleskill 1-0 (down 1)
4. Hudson 1-0 (up 1)
5. Albany Academy 1-0 (down 1)

Ravena beat Hudson Falls, 35-33, to stay in command of the class. But HF moves up for challenging the prohibitive favorite in the class, despite the fact that everyone else at the top of the class won. Hudson shut out Broadalbin-Perth 33-0, while Academy beat Class C Watervliet 26-14.

6. Johnstown 1-0 (up 2)
7. Fonda 0-1 (down 1)
8. Schalmont 1-0 (down 1)
9. Cohoes 0-1 (up 2)
10. Taconic Hills 0-1 (down 1)
11. Broadalbin-Perth 0-1 (down 1)

Johnstown moves up after a convincing win over Taconic Hills; Fonda lost a close one to Albany Academy. Schalmont should have dominated more than they did, and Cohoes takes the 9-spot over the other two because their offense actually put some points up on the board.

Class C:

1. Cambridge 1-0
2. Chatham 1-0
3. Hoosick Falls 1-0 (up 1)
4. Schuylerville 0-1 (down 1)
5. Watervliet 0-1

There's a big drop-off now after #3; Schuylerville and Watervliet both lost big last week in games that should have been close. Cambridge keeps the top spot even after Chatham hung 71 on Hoosic Valley; I know Cambridge played a Class D team, but Hoosic Valley was playing their first game of football ever. Hoosick Falls was very impressive in beating Schuylerville last week.

6. Lake George 1-0 (up 2)
7. Stillwater 1-0 (up 3)
8. Canajoharie 0-1 (down 1)
9. Catholic Central 0-1 (down 3)
10. Granville 1-0 (down 1)

Stillwater's win over Canajoharie and Voorheesville's win over CCHS make the middle of this class very hard to rank. Lake George was the highest-ranked team to win last weekend, but I think they migh tbe a little too high at six. Granville moves down after an unconvincing win at Whitehall due to the impressive win by Stillwater. And, as I said earlier, it's only week 1.

11. Voorheesville 1-0 (up 1)
12. Mechanicville 1-0 (down 1)
13. Greenwich 0-1
14. Tamarac 1-0 (up 3)
15. Coxsackie 0-1 (down 1)
16. Corinth 0-1 (down 1)
17. Hoosic Valley 1-0 (down 1)

It isn't really fair that Mechanicville beats Greenwich fairly comfortably (38-28) and then gets moved down, but those are the breaks. Voorheesville upsed Catholic Central in a convincing manner. Tamarac realistically is probably not better than Coxsackie or Corinth, but I wanted to give them some love after their first home win in five years (even if it was against Bishop Gibbons). And sorry Hoosic Valley, but anytime you give up 71 points, you're going in the basement the next day.

Class D:

1. Salem 0-1
2. Fort Edward 1-0
3. Rensselaer 1-0 (up 1)
4. Warrensburg 0-1 (down 1)
5. Whitehall 0-1
6. Bishop Gibbons 0-1

I know that FE beat a Class C team, and that Salem lost to a C team. But Cambridge is probably the best team in that class, and Salem-Cambridge is a rivlary game (so Cambridge was ready for them). I still think Salem is the best team in this class. Whitehall played an impressive game against Granville, but the other four teams were impressive as well.

Big games this week:

Cambridge @ Hoosick Falls (Fri)
Burnt Hills @ Glens Falls (Fri)
Cobleskill @ Hudson (Fri)

Odds and Ends

2006-09-03T12:56:00.000-04:00

Finals from yesterday's high school games:

Mechanicville 38, Greenwich 28

Queensbury 26, Niskayuna 14

Stillwater 20, Canajoharie 6

Voorheesville 34, CCHS 20

Albany Academy 26, Fonda 25

Granville 18, Whitehall 15

Ravena 35, Hudson Falls 33

Ballston Spa 22, Albany 10

Other Stuff:

Albany named Troy Turner their new varsity basketball coach sometime in the past few days. Turner should be a fine coach for the program, but it was kind of a surprise that the JV coach Tim Black didn't get the job. I don't know enough about either to have an opinion on whether the right decision was made or not.

Yesterday I was going to mention that Notre Dame had no shot at a national title this year (in college football) because of their tough schedule and the fact that they have questions defensively. Well, their defense showed up last night in a 14-10 win at Georgia Tech. But the fact that they struggled to pull out that win doesn't inspire confidence that they will be able to win against Penn State, Michigan, and at Michigan State in the coming three weeks. And even if they get through that stretch, they still have games against UCLA and at USC. Sorry Irish fans, but you will have to wait until next year.

The same principle applies to Ohio State and any of the SEC teams. So who does that leave in the national title game? I don't like Texas because I don't think they can replace Vince Young. And I think West Virginia is a little overrated. So I'm picking a USC-Florida State national title game, with FSU coming out on top. (I have no idea why, but I looked at the top ten teams and picked the two with the easiest schedules. That's pretty much all the thought I game it).

I'm now rooting for the Padres (currently one game ahead of Philly) in the NL wild-card race. Why? If they win, they play the Mets in the NLDS, which would be an awesome series. The pitching matchups would be incredible:

Game 1: Jake Peavy vs Pedro Martinez
Game 2: David Wells vs Tom Glavine
Game 3: Chris Young vs El Duque
Game 4: Peavy vs John Maine
Game 5: Wells vs Pedro

Wouldn't that be great? Buster Olney brings it up in his blog today, but only if you're an ESPN Insider.

Coming Tomorrow: The first installment of my HS Football Power Rankings. And I'll have a full NFL preview up later this week.

9/1 Recap

2006-09-02T12:30:00.000-04:00

Maybe this is why I can't get my Times Union blog running: David Filkins and James Allen (the TU's lead high school football reporters) have prematurely invaded my turf with their "Sidelines" blog. Even worse is how their name resembles mine - even though I came up with mine two months before them, mine will sound like a rip-off of theirs. Oh well.

There were some great football games last night around the Capital Region. Unfortunately, I didn't go to any of them. I went to the Columbia-LaSalle game yesterday, an ugly 7-6 affair won by Columbia. I had to leave midway through the second quarter, so I didn't even see either touchdown. But I will summarize what I did see:

It was mostly a back-and-forth game - I believe there was only one first down recorded by either team in the first quarter. Both teams' running backs seemed very small (both were listed at around 5'6, 145), and LaSalle's main RB Marquis Terrell is just a sophmore.

The main problem for the Cadets early on was their special teams play. They were terrible on special teams. Columbia ran back the opening kickoff to about midfield, and then LaSalle fumbled the Blue Devils' first punt (but recovered). Columbia got two more punts inside the LaSalle 10-yard-line before I left; the first one looked misplayed, the second was a lucky bounce. The LaSalle punter shanked a punt as well in the first quarter (though they got a man free and almost blocked a punt in the second). In a defensive battle like this, field position and special teams are extremely important, and that's probably why LaSalle lost.

LaSalle's QB, junior Jered Henkel, wasn't extremely impressive - he made a few nice throws and ended up with somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 yards, but he was overthrowing his recievers a lot as well - but he often didn't have much time to throw. The running backs got nothing going during the part of the game I saw; three or four guys would be on them as soon as they crossed the line of scrimmage.

This was a minor upset - I had Columbia ranked ahead of only Schenectady and Guilderland in yesterday's preview - but nobody really knows what to make of these first-week games.

Other games:

Colonie 27, Saratoga 21 (OT) - Colonie upsets the prohibitive favorites behind the stellar QB play of junior Tom Duff. Duff threw for over 150 yards and two TDs. I still think Saratoga is my favorite to win the section title, but I'm not so sure (especially given how impressive Troy looked yesterday). And Colonie would probably jump to third in my rankings, ahead of CBA and Shen (Maybe I'll do that - a weekly power ranking post. Sounds pretty cool). Full Story

Troy 19, Shen 8 - Troy jumped out to a 19-0 first-half lead and held on to give Shen its first regular-season loss since 2001. Troy now has to be the favorite to get the #1 seed heading into the playoffs - their toughest games left are both at home (CBA and LaSalle), and they don't have to play Colonie or Saratoga. They could easily go undefeated, and Saratoga now already has a loss. Full Story

Bethlehem 33, Schenectady 20 - Schenectady's offense finally got clicking in the fourth quarter, scoring 20 points, but it wasn't enough. Bethlehem looked very good offensively, though I think that might tell more about the Schenectady defense. Dan Unright rushed for 153 yards on 15 carries for the Eagles.

Guilderland 26, Shaker 13 - Naturally, the team I had ranked last ends the weekend with a win, while the team I had ranked first opens with a loss. Go figure. Shaker's not really a title contender either, but this is a nice win for Guilderland.

Henninger 34, CBA 28 - I don't really know what to make of this game - Henninger is a section 3 team, and I don't have any idea how good they are - but putting 28 points on the board is a good sign for the Brothers' offense.

Class A:

Burnt Hills 34, Gloversville 13 - The one prediction that people seemed to disagree with most yesterday was my picking Burnt Hills to win the Class A title. Well, they made me look good yesterday. The two BH-BL running backs (Kyle Holmes, David Moore) ran for a combined 289 yards and four touchdowns. QB Kris Barone looked impressive for the Huskies, but their defense couldn't slow down Burnt Hills.

Amsterdam 13, Bishop Maginn 12 - The defending state champs squeak by Maginn, with help from a couple late interceptions. The play-calling on the Amsterdam side wasn't great, according to people who watched the game, and they should have won by more than one point. Amsterdam should get better, but Maginn will be a team nobody wants to play.

Mohonasen 34, South Glens Falls 7 - SGF seems like the weakest team in this tough Class A division, and Mohon got lucky enough to play them early. Pat Barnes looked good at QB for Mohon.

Glens Falls 35, Averill Park 0 - GF established themselves as a legitamite contender in Class A with a rout of AP. Their wideouts played very well, seeming to not miss all-state WR Jimmer Fredette at all.

Lansingburgh 52, Scotia 8 - Lansingburgh gets their Class A career off to a great start by demolishing Scotia. Class A is going to be crazy this year.

Class B:

Hudson 33, Broadalbin-Perth 0 - Hudson was a team that some people thought I should have ranked higher than fifth in the class, and yesterday's result vindicates that viewpoint. Willie Simon ran for four TDs and 153 yards for the Blue Hawks.

Schalmont 14, Cohoes 12 - I don't really know what to say about this game. Ryan Donadio ran for 143 yards and returned a kickoff for a touchdown.

Johnstown 13, Taconic Hills 2 - Neither team should contend for the class title this year, but Johnstown continues to establish themselves as a program on the rise.

Cobleskill 44, Watervliet 21 - Cobleskill is a legitimate contender for the Class B crown this year. Watervliet could win the Class C crown as well, but they'll have to start playing well - Class C is almost as loaded as Class A is this year. Nick DeChristopher and Aaron Christman combined for just under 200 yards rushing and four touchdowns.

Class C:

Hoosick Falls 41, Schuylerville 24 - The two-time defending champs fell yesterday at the hands of the Panthers. Jon Burns rushed for 215 yards and 3 TDs, and QB Rollie O'Brien ran for 85 yards as well. Hoosick makes a nice statement that they are for real this year.

Chatham 71, Hoosic Valley 7 - This is Hoosic Valley's first year with a football team - not a good way to open your career. I usually don't agree with people who advocate point limits and penalize coaches who run up the score, but nobody should score 71 points in a high school game.

Lake George 16, Warrensburg 7 - Lake George seems to be on the rise this year, but they should beat Class D Warrensburg by at least double digit points if they want to compete in Class C.

Tamarac 20, Bishop Gibbons 0 - Tamarac gets their first home win in five years. So I won't ruin their parade by mentioning that BG is easily the worst team in the section and that Tamarac will still probably finish in the basement of Class C.

Class D:

Renssalaer 13, Coxsackie 6 - Coxsackie is one of the weakest teams in Class C, and they fall at the hands of Class D Renssalaer. I still don't really think the Rams have enough to win the D crown.

Games to watch for today:

Salem @ Cambridge
Ravena @ Hudson Falls
Catholic Central @ Voorheesville

HS Football Preview

2006-09-01T10:22:00.000-04:00

Today the high school football season kicks off, and so I've developed a preview of the season. No luck yet getting the TU to run my blog, but I'm still trying. My preview comes with one caveat: I didn't really follow the football season much last year (I only started following local sports extensively over the winter), so my picks are less confident than, say, my basketball picks will be. But I've done my best to garner/borrow/steal all the knowledge I could to make this accurate.

Without further ado,

Class AA:

1. Saratoga

Saratoga is returning most of their key players from last season's team that reached the sectional final last year. They lost a couple players from their front seven and o-line, but return most of their important skill position players. And most of last year's other contenders (Shen, LaSalle, Albany, Nisky) lost a lot of talent. If the Blue Streaks don't win the AA title this year, it will be a big surprise.

2. Troy
3. CBA
4. Shen
5. Colonie

Realistically, any of these teams could end up as the second-best by November. Troy has been down recently, with 11 losses over the last two years. But they should have good players this year, and they have one of the historically best programs in the section. CBA is very talented at the skill positions, with Joe Zappone at running back and Luke Weaver as the primary reciever. Shen lost a lot from last year's team, but they still are Shen, and the rest of the section (Saratoga excluded) is down as well this year. Colonie has won the JV title for each of the last two years. And Colonie opens their season at home against Saratoga, which should be one of the best games of this weekend. (Shen hosts Troy on Friday as well)

6. LaSalle
7. Niskayuna
8. Bethlehem
9. Albany
10. Shaker
11. Ballston Spa
12. Queensbury
13. Columbia
14. Schenectady
15. Guilderland

LaSalle has some quick running backs this year, and from what I hear an improving young QB (sorry that I don't yet know his name). Nisky lost star QB Bryan Grastorf, but should still be the second-best team in a fairly weak division. They have some very good players returning, especially on the defensive side. But the quarterback play will not be stellar this year, as two sophmore QBs are learning the system. I don't really know how good Bethlehem is, but David Plummer should keep this team in the top half of the section (or at least right at the halfway point). Albany has plenty of athleticism, but not enough talent to make a serious run. And apparently a bunch of Albany players transferred to Albany Academy (though I haven't heard who they are or anything about them, so I don't really know how much it will affect them). Something that I want to bring up, and this seems like the best spot: There are schools that I call the "small" schools - not in terms of enrollment but in terms of size. For example, Guilderland is the "smallest" school in AA - they always seem to have really small kids on their sports teams. Columbia and Niskayuna are the same way. These teams tend to fare poorly in sports like football, because they don't have enough size on their lines to compete. Saratoga and Shen are generally "big" schools, though Ballston Spa has had the largest players that I personally have played against. I don't know why I felt like bringing that up. I'll move on now...

Class A:

1. Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake

I have no idea if BH-BL is actually the favorite this year; there are four or five teams that you could consider the favorite this year. But BH-BL plays in the easier of the two divisions (division 2 seems to be more talented), and lots of the other teams have lost a lot. Burnt Hills returns just about everybody from a defense that was very good last year, and running backs Kyle Holmes and D.J. Moore will help control the clock. They will be running behind an entirely new offensive line, however. Class A is a great division in section 2, and whichever team comes out of this section will make a lot of noise in states.

2. Amsterdam
3. Lansingburgh
4. Glens Falls
5. Mohanasen

Amsterdam has won the Class A title five years in a row, but they've lost a lot of talent. Some people would probably put them lower, but I can't justify putting a team looking for a six-peat any lower than second. This is Lansingburgh's first year as a Class A team; they dominated in Class B, but jumping classes is not easy to do. I just don't think they will be able to roll over all these teams like they did the weaker Class B teams. But they have a lot of talent. Glens Falls would have been right there with all the contenders if all-state WR Jimmer Fredette were playing; but Fredette is a D-1 recruit in basketball and will focus on that instead, leaving GF a little bit below the big three. This is Mohan's best team in recent memory, but that's not saying much. Still, any of these teams could win the title if they get hot at the right time.

6. Bishop Maginn
7. Gloversville
8. Averill Park
9. Scotia-Glenville
10. South Glens Falls

Maginn also has some good talent this year; they will be tested early when they open up their season tomorrow against Amsterdam. Gloversville QB Kris Barone suffered a season-ending concussion last year, but he's ready for this season and has a huge line in front of him. AP made a deep run last year but lost a lot of talent. Scotia opens with Lansingburgh and Amsterdam, and a game at SGF is really the only winnable game on their schedule.

Class B:

1. Ravena

Ravena is clearly the favorite in Class B this year with last year's champion Lansingburgh in Class A this year. They lost a lot of talent, especially on the o-line, but they have two strong RBs back and should be the favorite. There are a couple other teams that could win the title, but Ravena right now looks like the best of the bunch.

2. Cobleskill
3. Hudson Falls
4. Albany Academy
5. Hudson

Cobleskill has the best returning QB of any of these teams in Dunea Lockwood. I've heard Lockwood compared to T.J. Czeski (Amsterdam's star QB last year), albeit without quite as much talent. And Cobleskill's program is always strong every year. Hudson Falls also has a good program and returns some talent. Albany Academy has some good players, but has traditionally lacked the depth necessary to be a great team. Hudson has a lot of returning players, but not really enough talent to crack the top four.

6. Fonda
7. Schalmont
8. Johnstown
9. Taconic Hills
10. Broadalbin-Perth
11. Cohoes

Fonda will be a much different program this year without Alex Mancini on the sidelines, but they should still have a decent team. Johnstown could be a bit of a sleeper this year, as they return QB Jase Kollar and it looks like they will be building their offense around him. They don't have much of a rushing attack, though, so they are probably too one-dimensional to win too many games this year. They are an improving team, however. Not much to say about the rest of these teams; there aren't really any section title contenders in this group.

Class C:

1. Cambridge

Cambridge has to make the always-tricky leap from Class D to Class C this year, so they're a bit of a risky pick this year. But last year's Class D champs return almost everybody this year, and they look to be the most talented team in the class. Although they no longer have the easy weeks against bad D teams, it is worth noting that they were a Class C team earlier in the decade and won the section title twice ('01 and '02). There are other contenders here, but Cambridge looks to be the best team. I believe they return 17 starters from last year's team, including QB Spencer Luke and his cousin Sam at RB. They lost their top WR, Tyler Herrington, but will try to replace him with his two younger brothers.

2. Chatham
3. Schuylerville
4. Hoosick Falls
5. Watervliet

Chatham looks very good this year as well; from what I hear, QB Zach Kraham has looked very impressive in preseason camps. Schuylerville and Hoosick Falls both lost a lot from last year's teams, but both have great programs and should be in the title hunt again this year. They open the season with a matchup at Hoosick that should be great to watch (the two met in the Class C title game last year). I've heard that Watervliet has looked great in the preseason, but their program has a reputation of looking good before the season starts and then faltering during the year. They are a very big team (in size), though, so you can't count them out.

6. Catholic Central
7. Canajoharie
8. Lake George
9. Granville
10. Stillwater
11. Mechanicville
12. Voorheesville
13. Greenwich
14. Coxsackie
15. Corinth
16. Hoosic Valley
17. Tamarac

Catholic Central is a lot better this year after a lot of years at the bottom of the class, but they don't quite have enough to be a title contender. Canajoharie also returns some talent, but also doesn't have much history. Lake George looks a little better than they have at times in the past, but they aren't much more than an average team. Mechanicville is lucky to be playing; their football program was almost cut out of the budget this year. Greenwich doesn't quite have the depth necessary to be a good team. Voorheesville is in rebuilding mode after losing a good class last year. This is the first year of football for Hoosic Valley, so they probably won't have a very good team this year.

Class D:

1. Salem

There are really only two contenders this year, Salem and Fort Edward, with Cambridge back up to Class C. Salem lost some talent from last year, but they always have a good team, and I think they will find a way to win this division again this year. Salem's QB, Matt Flanagan, is only 5'2" tall, but still runs a very good offense.

2. Fort Edward
3. Warrensburg
4. Rensselaer
5. Whitehall
6. Bishop Gibbons

I wouldn't be surprised to see FE win this division; FE has QB Ryan Carpenter to lead a spread-option offense this coming year. But their line is suspect, and they don't quite have the history that Salem's program does. Junior RB Ryan Black ran for over 1000 yards last year for Warrensburg, but their entire o-line graduated, so they'll hit an adjustment period. Rensselaer has some talent that includes D-1 lineman Kenny Plue (who incedentally also has a TU blog, though I don't know if he'll update it this year), but they're not deep enough to be a top team.

I won't go into any further detail because I don't really know how, but I'll be getting my first taste of the football season tonight. I don't yet know which game(s) I'm going to, but some good games to watch are Schuylerville @ Hoosick Falls, Troy @ Shen, Watervliet @ Cobleskill, Salem @ Cambridge, and CBA vs Henniger (a Sec. 3 team).

More Stuff

2006-08-31T13:59:00.000-04:00

Not much today, as I'm working mostly on my big high school football preview (games start tomorrow night!). But there's one item of note today: The Red Sox will likely trade David Wells to the Padres for a prospect. This basically marks the end of the Sox's playoff hopes - a run to the playoffs would be extremely unlikely now, but without Wells they are pretty much done. Wells' days as a great pitcher are gone (if they ever were here), but he's still a big-game pitcher who can be effective against a lefty-dominated lineup. And moving from the AL to the NL should help Wells as well (see: Bronson Arroyo).

Who is to blame for the Red Sox's collapse? Some might say the front office, for not making a big deal at the deadline. But I would argue that this actually validates Theo and company - no player in baseball is going to make up eight games in the standings, and they still have all their young pitchers for next year and beyond. The largest factor here was Varitek's injury; I don't think the Sox would have been swept by the Yankees were Varitek healthy (more proof of just how valuable catchers are).

Also, Jon Lester is in the hospital, for what I read as basically cancer testing. Hope things turn out okay for him. David Ortiz also had health issues, but appears to be okay and should return to the team sometime next week.

The Dan Shanoff Blog has been added to the Hall of Links.

NFL Preview: NFC West

2006-08-29T14:26:00.000-04:00

I'm finally wrapping up my NFL previews with the NFC West. Actually, I'll probably have a full preview once I get my Times Union blog up and running with Super Bowl predictions and stuff, but I still have this division to get through. I've already done the AFC East, the AFC North, the AFC South, the AFC West, the NFC East, the NFC North, and the NFC South.

Arizona: Many experts picked the Cardinals to take a step up last year and make the playoffs. Well, the Cards were the only team to finish in the top 10 in the NFL in both offense and defense YPG. But their winning percentage didn't reflect that, as they finished just 5-11. Both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald had breakout years, with each gaining over 1,400 recieving yards. Kurt Warner isn't exactly what he was on the '99 Rams, but he should still be good enough to get these guys the ball. And Edgerinn James will be a major help to last year's worst running attack. The offensive line isn't great, but it's not terrible either. The defense is good enough as well. I think this team was unlucky last year, and this year I think things will turn their way. The Cards will get 10 wins and win the division. Yes, you read that last part right. The Arizona Cardinals will make the playoffs. Just remember me when it happens.

St. Louis: The Rams weren't much better last year, with a 6-10 record. Their defense (especially the run defense) was atrocious last year, and they fixed that in the offseason. They won't have a great defense this year, but it's better than last year's version. Steven Jackson should break out and be a great running back this year also, with pass-happy Mike Martz out of the picture, and Torry Holt is a top-five WR in the league. But Marc Bulger is an average quarterback, and if he gets hurt Gus Ferrotte is the backup. This team just seems to me like one that could suffer a couple injuries and not be able to recover, and it doesn't help that my least-favorite coach Jim Haslett is the defensive coordinator now. This team has talent, but not enough. I forsee a 7-9 record.

San Francisco: The 49ers were 4-12 last year, and things don't look much better for this year. QB Alex Smith was the #1 overall draft pick in 2005, and so far he has accomplished next to nothing. To be fair, he doesn't really have any talent around him, but he will still need to improve if he wants to avoid the dreaded "bust" label. Frank Gore will likely be the starting RB, which tells you all you need to know about the position. I can't name a single one of the SF wide recievers, and rookie TE Vernon Davis will likely be a Pro Bowl-caliber player but not this year. And it's not like the defense is any good either. This team won't win more than three games this year.

Seattle: The Seahawks last year were the best team in the NFC, with a 13-3 record and winning the NFC title game. And they return pretty much the same team. The only major loss was that of guard Steve Hutchinson, who would open up holes for Shaun Alexander. But, going all the way back to '01, the Super Bowl loser has missed the playoffs the next year. Will this team break that streak? Well, ordinarily I might say yes. But this team actually has two curses on them - the Super Bowl loser curse, plus the Madden jinx (unfortunate things always happen to the player on the cover of Madden), applicable to Alexander this year. Maybe none of these curses are real, and the Seahawks will roll to their second straight SB appearance. But do you want to be the guy who drafts Alexander in your fantasy league or bets on the Seahawks to win the NFC again this year, only to see Alexander spontaniously combust sometime during Week 2? Me neither. So, against all logic, I'll predict a 9-7 record for the Hawks, and some free time in January to watch the playoffs on TV.

MVP Talk

2006-08-28T14:45:00.000-04:00

I'll finish up my NFL previews tomorrow, probably, and I'll have a big high school football season preview later this week (I'm trying to get my Times Union blog up for that). But today I'm going to talk about the MVP races in both leagues, but primarily the AL. (And pretty soon I'll talk about why people should avoid doing exactly what I'm doing right now. Funny how that works.)

But right now, I'm talking the AL MVP. It had been (according to the media) a two-horse race between David Ortiz and Derek Jeter, but Ortiz got all but knocked out of the race after the five-game sweep last week. The Sox right now are all but eliminated from the playoffs. The voters will almost never vote for someone as MVP unless they make the playoffs or have a surprisingly good season, so Ortiz and some others (Vernon Wells, Vlad Guerrero, etc.) can be eliminated from our discussion.

So that leaves Jeter and a bunch of "fringe" candidates. Oakland really has nobody worth considering, and ditto for Detroit (though one can make the case that Carlos Guillen is as valuable as Jeter). Jim Thome was a candidate at the All-Star break, but he's cooled off since then, and his recent injury all but takes him out of the race. Jermaine Dye is getting a lot of love from the central time zone, with a .326 BA, 38 HRs, and 102 RBI. But, as of now, the White Sox aren't in the playoffs, so Dye will likely not get much consideration.

So, it must be Jeter, right? Wrong. Let's compare Jeter to Joe Mauer, the catcher on the wild-card-leading Twins.

Jeter: .337 BA, 12 HR, 81 RBI, .413 OBP, .480 SLG%
Mauer: .356 BA, 10 HR, 73 RBI, .434 OBP, .514 SLG%

As you can see, Mauer has a significant edge in all the percentage stats, and is behind in homers and RBI only because he has almost 100 fewer at-bats. So Jeter is not more prolific offensively than Mauer, no matter how you look at it. What, then are the other cases for Jeter?

He's a great defensive shortstop: Actually, that's probably not true. Defensive is not easy to measure by any means, but virtually every complex stat that has been invented to measure defense has found that Jeter is, in fact, a below-average shortstop. I'm not so sure about that - he does make a lot of great plays - but I don't think he's nearly the best in the league. And, even if you do want to say that Jeter is a great shortstop, you'll still lose the defense argument - Mauer is a very good catcher, and catcher is the most important and physically demanding position to play. So you're not making any progress there.

His team was decimated by injuries: Okay, that's true. But the Yankees' lineup, even with Matsui and Sheffield out, is still probably better than the Twins'. And, lest you forget, the Twins have not been injury-free either - at one point in July, I believe their entire outfield was out with injuries. So Jeter's supporting cast has been better than Mauer's. You're not winning me over yet...

He was a "leader": That's the argument that you always get when you debate with Yankee fans - somehow Jeter's presence in the locker room helps Giambi, A-Rod, and Posada add an extra 20 points to their batting averages and hit a few more home runs. Well, I don't really see it. And, even if you do want to believe that, remember when A-Rod was struggling in July? That was near the trade deadline, and everyone was booing him, trade rumors were swirling, and Rodriguez wanted to get in a hole and hide for a week or two. Shouldn't that be a situation where the team leader should give him some public support, letting him know that the other guys have his back and that the fans are being too harsh? Well, I don't remember exactly what Jeter said, but I know that he didn't say much. He certainly didn't give A-Rod much support. On the other hand, Mauer has led the Twins pitching staff, the fourth-best staff in the league. What great pitchers do the Twins have? Well, other than Johan Santana, not much. Before he got hurt, Fransisco Liriano was great, but all rookies need a great catcher to help guide them through rough times. Boof Bonser and Matt Garza are two other rookies who have been effective throwing to Mauer. Carlos Silva and Brad Radke are both pitchers who have below-average stuff, but are still effective (usually) by changing speeds and hitting their spots. To summarize, there's no evidence Jeter has been more of a "leader" than Mauer has been.

Well...then why should anyone vote for Jeter as MVP over Mauer? I'm as confused as you are. If you are a Yankees fan or you have something I've missed, e-mail me or leave a comment and tell me why I'm wrong.

And I don't think I'd even vote for Mauer as MVP. Who would get that award for me? The aforementioned Santana. The Twins have a makeshift rotation behind him and an average offense, yet Santana gives them basically a guaranteed win every five games. Here's a stat for you: Johan Santana hasn't lost a start at home since last August. Without him, the Twins would be nowhere near the playoffs. But, since someone apparently decided to make a rule that pitchers couldn't win the MVP award, there's not a snowball's chance in hell that the deserving Santana wins.

As for the NL MVP, it's right now a three-horse race: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, and Carlos Beltran. Howard has been great, but he isn't as good a hitter as Pujols is (and, in case you didn't know this, Pujols is one of the game's best defensive first basemen). And I couldn't vote for Beltran, as there are too many other great bats on that team. (It's funny to me that Wright was the clear MVP candidate from the Mets in June, then it was Jose Reyes in July, then Carlos Delgado at the end of July to early August, and now it's supposed to clearly be Beltran?) So I'd vote for Pujols in the NL.

Other Awards:

AL Cy Young: Santana over Roy Halladay.
NL Cy Young: Take your pick: Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Carlos Zambrano.
AL Rookie of the Year: Justin Verlander
NL ROY: Dan Uggla (Florida 2B)

9/10: Here's a stat that comes to you courtesy of ESPN's Buster Olney: When Santana pitches, the Twins are 26-5 (including 12-0 since the All-Star break). When he doesn't pitch, they're 57-53. That means that, without Santana, the Twins are almost literally a .500 team. If that doesn't settle this debate, I don't know what will.

NFL Preview: NFC South

2006-08-27T22:21:00.000-04:00

Before I fall asleep, I'll preview the NFC South for the coming NFL season. We're near the end of these previews; I've already done the AFC East, the AFC North, the AFC South, the AFC West, the NFC East, and the NFC North. All four teams in this division have great talent, but which teams will make the playoffs?

Atlanta: The Falcons finished a respectable 8-8 last year, but most people now think that they aren't going anywhere with Michael Vick at the helm. I'm not sure about that, but he'll have to prove himself eventually. Vick should improve this year with a better supporting cast around him, but really, we've been saying that for each of the past three years. Vick and RB Warrick Dunn wreak havoc on opposing run defenses, but the biggest problem is that the Falcons have problems of their own against the run. The front seven are weak against the ground game, and that is a problem in a division that features Cadillac Williams, DeShaun Foster, Reggie Bush, and Deuce McCallister. Their pass rush is outstanding, with John Abraham, Patrick Kerney, and Rod Coleman all should get at least 10 sacks this year, but teams will pound the ball up the middle and wear the Falcons down. I think this team is too one-dimensional - both on offense and defense - to make a playoff run. They're a bit better, but so is virtually everyone else in the division (and the whole NFC, for that matter). So I forsee another 8-8 season for Atlanta.

Carolina: The Panthers went 11-5 last year and made it to the NFC Championship game, where they were beaten by Seattle. But the Panthers are arguably the most talented team in the conference, and they should have a great shot at making the Super Bowl again this year. John Fox is a great coach, Jake Delhomme is a wildly underrated quarterback, and DeShaun Foster is an underrated but injury-prone halfback. Oh yeah, they also have the best WR in the game right now in Steve Smith. Adding Keyshawn Johnson to start opposite Smith should help this offense tremendously, as last year Smith was basically Delhomme's only target but still put up the best stats in the league. If Foster is injured (which is now not so much of an "if" as it is a "when"), first-round draft pick DeAngelo Williams will get the carries in his place. The Panthers have a great defense, so there really aren't any glaring holes on this team. If nothing goes drastically wrong, Carolina should be back in the NFC title game this year, with a 12-4 record.

New Orleans: The Saints finished with a 3-13 record, typical of the Jim Haslett era in New Orleans. Obviously the Saints had plenty of other issues last year, what with the Katrina aftermath and all, but this team never looked focused or committed to me last year. After the opening-day upset of Carolina, the Saints' home game against the Giants got moved to New York, and things went downhill from there. During Week 2, it seemed like the players (and coaches) were more focused on how they got screwed by the NFL (taking away their home game) and not focused on playing the actual game. And, although most of you might disagree with me, it seemed like the Saints quit on their season after that game. Drew Brees is an upgrade over Aaron Brooks at QB, and Reggie Bush and Deuce McCallister will terrorize opposing defenses. But the Saints' o-line and run defense are nothing short of terrible, which isn't a recipie for success in this division. But the good news is that Haslett is out as head coach and Sean Payton is in. The Saints always had playoff-caliber talent under Haslett but always underachieved, and they should make some progress - say, 5-11 - with him finally gone.

Tampa Bay: The Bucs were also 11-5 last season, and they should be even better this year. Their defense was first in terms of YPG allowed, and their offense should be much better in '06. Their o-line is better, Cadillac Williams is in his second season, and Chris Simms should just get better. Basically everybody should improve from last year's team, although I think last year's team wasn't quite as good as their record showed. I think they'll stay at 11-5 for the coming year, but they're a team nobody wants to see in the playoffs.

NFL Preview: NFC North

2006-08-25T20:19:00.000-04:00

Part six in my NFL preseason preview, as there's nothing else really worth talking about today. I've already covered the AFC East, the AFC North, the AFC South, the AFC West, and the NFC East. But, unlike the previous five divisions, this one has something special: Three truly bad teams. I'll bet you can guess which ones they are.

Chicago: The lone bright spot in an otherwise sorry division, the Bears posted an 11-5 record behind the league's #1 ranked defense, which gave up just over 12 points per game. This team should again be the best in their division, but there are questions as to whether or not this is a Super Bowl-caliber team. Most of the other top teams in the NFC have improved, but the Bears stood pat and will likely start the same players they did last year, despite holes at wide reciever and tight end. The one unknown about the bears is how good Cedric Benson will be. Thomas Jones got most of the carries last year, but this year the sophmore Benson should see his share of playing time as well. Regardless of who is playing running back, the offense will have to perform better - in all five of the Bears' losses last year, they scored 10 points or less. Mushin Muhammed is a quality #1 reciever, but otherwise Rex Grossman has no other good options to throw to. I think this team played over its head last year, but they should still be the class of this division. They won't get a first-round bye in the playoffs, though, as they probably won't get more than 9 wins.

Detroit: The Lions have been beyond atrocious over the last few seasons; they're coming off a 5-11 season and enter the season with first-year coach Rod Marinelli in charge. But I think there is hope for the Lions in the immediate future. They had a sub-par defense last year, but this year they will switch to a Cover 2 defensive scheme. I won't get into all the details of a Cover 2 - I don't completely understand it myself - but the general rule is this: If you have good players, the Cover 2 will work very well (Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Indy used it last year, and all finished among the top ten defenses in the league), whereas if you don't have the right personell, your defense will break down (the Rams used it as well, and had the second-worst defense). From what I've read, the Lions have the right players to make the Cover 2 work, especially in the front seven. The other reason I think the Lions are due to improve is the fact that they brought in Mike Martz as offensive coordinator. You'll remember Martz was the OC for the 2000 Rams - the "Greatest Show on Turf", which featured probably the best offense of my lifetime - and won a championship there, before eventually being promoted to head coach and underachieving for a few years. But Martz may be the type of person who is better off not having to deal with both sides of the ball, and he could revamp the Lions' offensive attack. After drafting three wideouts with top-ten picks, the Lions have a plethora of good wide recievers. They brought in Jon Kitna, who is a decent quarterback who could become great in the right system. And they have Kevin Jones, who Martz will try to get the ball to both on the ground and in the air - kind of like he did with Marshall Faulk, except not quite as good. So, my point is: Don't sleep on the Lions this year. I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but they'll finish with a .500 record and an eye towards next year.

Green Bay: The Packers are coming off an extremely disappointing 4-12 campaign last year, and they hope to be much better next year. They suffered injuries to Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, the defense, and just about everyone else not named Brett Favre. This team will be better with people returning, but I still don't think they are good enough to be in playoff contention. Rookie linebacker A.J. Hawk will bring some excitement to the defensive side, but the fact is that Favre isn't getting any younger, and he doesn't exactly have an All-Star cast around him. The most exciting player of the preseason for the Packers has been second-round draft pick Greg Jennings, who may be poised for an Anquan Boldin-type breakout season this year with Favre throwing him the ball. And Aaron Rodgers will take over the quarterback reins if and when Favre eventually retires. But this is a team that needs to look towards 2007 and beyond, as I can't see them eclipsing 6-10 this year.

Minnesota: In case you didn't notice, the Vikings quietly posted a 9-7 record last year. I didn't know that. The Vikings are the third team in this division to have a new coach, with Brad Childress taking over (finally!) from Mike Tice. Brad Johnson will be quarterbacking (when did that become a verb?) the offense this year, and while Johnson is a solid QB, he is nothing spectacular. This team seems very average to me, as there are no gaping holes but no superstars either. They have tried to beef up their below-average defense, but I don't think they'll be evoking comparisons to the '86 Bears or the '00 Ravens anytime soon. Bottom line, this is a team with average talent across the board, and so logically I'll predict an 8-8 record.

NFL Preview: NFC East

2006-08-24T12:31:00.000-04:00

I'm halfway done with my NFL previews, and today I get to the NFC East. I've already covered the AFC East, the AFC North, the AFC South, and the AFC West. The NFC East is most likely the toughest division in all of football, with four legitimate playoff contenders. It's likely that two teams will come out of this division, especially given the weakness of the NFC North and West.

Dallas: The Cowboys were 9-7 last year, missing the playoffs by one game. They should be even better this year, as they add Terrell Owens to their offense and (don't laugh!) bolstering their special teams by adding kicker Mike Vanderjagt - who happens to be the most accurate kicker in NFL history - and some other pieces. The Cowboys lost three games last year by four points or less, so any upgrades could be the difference between 9-7 and 11-5. Coach Bill Parcells took the Giants to the Super Bowl in his fourth year in New York, and took the Patriots to the championship game in his fourth year in New England. It's year four of the Parcells regime in Dallas, and the Cowboys certainly have the pieces to make a deep playoff run this year. For all his off-field problems, Owens is a dominating force on the field and should help create some space for the running game. The one question mark for this team is the offensive line. Drew Bledsoe is about as mobile as a corpse, so the o-line needs to give him enough time to find Owens or Terry Glenn. I think the Cowboys should have a successful season, probably with an 11-5 record.

New York: The Giants are coming off an 11-5 season last year, and are returning most of the pieces from last year's fourth-ranked offense. Eli Manning is coming off a breakout year - you may not know this, but Eli actually threw for more yards last year than his brother Peyton - and Tiki Barber is a top-five running back. Eli has great recievers to throw to (watch out for rookie Sinorice Moss), but the one knock on him has been his accuracy. He completed only 52% of his passes last year; the average QBs complete around 60%, and the best complete somewhere around 64-67% of their passes. The defense is another question mark - they were 24th last year in YPG allowed. They retooled their secondary in the offseason, but whether they will be better is still a question. But the larger problem, in my mind, is their schedule. They open their season with Indy at home, at Philly, at Seattle, Washington at home, at Atlanta, at Dallas, and then Tampa Bay at home. None of those are easy victories, and they also have to play Philly, Dallas, and the Redskins again as well as at Jacksonville, at Carolina, and against Chicago. The likely scenario to me is that the Giants will suffer what happened to the Chargers last year - they have enough talent to make the playoffs, but their schedule is so tough that they will finish 8-8 or 9-7 and spend January at home.

Philadelphia: The Eagles suffered a lot of injuries last year, but they still finished with a 6-10 record. The larger problem is that they failed to get even one win against the teams in their division. With McNabb healthy and T.O. gone, this team should be better than last year. The question is, how much better will they be? Everyone else in the division improved as well, so wins will not be easy to come by for the Eagles. Philly will continue to have a virtually nonexistent running attack, so the pressure will once again be on McNabb to carry the offense. The Eagles were beat up last year on defense as well (especially in the secondary), and that was one of the strengths of their NFC championship team two years ago. Second-year wideout Reggie Brown should be McNabb's favorite target with Owens out of the picture, but this team doesn't look that much better than last year's version. I can't see the Eagles faring any better than 7-9.

Washington: The Redskins made the playoffs last year with a 10-6 record, largely in part to running back Clinton Portis. But Portis suffered a partially dislocated shoulder in his first preseason game, and may not be able to play in the season opener for the Redskins. He shouldn't miss too much time, but losing any games in this division will cripple your chances of making the playoffs. The Skins also had football's ninth-ranked defense last year, and they keep most of the pieces for this year's team. Mark Brunell is not a great quarterback, but he is good enough to take care of the offense and put some points on the board. Brunell also has great players to throw to; WR Santana Moss and TE Chris Cooley will both see their share of yards. Unless Portis misses a lot of time, I can't see this team missing the playoffs. They'll probably finish 11-5 as well.

NFL Preview: AFC West

2006-08-23T13:39:00.000-04:00

I'm finishing up the AFC portion of my NFL previews today with the AFC West. I've already covered the AFC East, the AFC North, and the AFC South. I only have one wild-card team so far, so that means two teams from this division will make the playoffs...

Denver: First, the Broncos were part of a three-team trade completed this morning, sending WR Ashley Lelie to Atlanta, former Falcons RB T.J. Duckett to Washington, and draft picks to Denver. Lelie had been a major distraction for the Broncos during camp, and they felt it was better to send him somewhere else. Denver had a surprising 13-3 season last year, winning the division and going to the AFC championship game. The Broncos will continue their running-back-by-committee ways this year, with undrafted rookie Mike Bell likely to get the majority of carries at the beginning of the year. First-round draft pick Jay Cutler has, by all indications, looked very good in training camp, but he won't take over this team until next year at the earliest (barring an injury to Jake Plummer). Plummer last year became a decent NFL quarterback, which is good enough for this team. The defense overall was average last year, but they were very weak against the pass. One main reason was the fact that their linemen weren't able to get pressure on the quarterback, giving him time to pick apart the secondary. Champ Bailey is an excellent cornerback, but teams with multiple threats at the wide reciever position should be able to put points on the board. I expect somewhat of a regression for the Broncos this year, but still a playoff team. I'll go with 11-5.

Kansas City: Larry Johnson will finally get to start for the entire year with Priest Holmes old and injured, and his fantasy owners everywhere are salivating. (LJ should be the #1 pick in your fantasy league, by the way.) Johnson averaged 150 yards per game in nine starts, which projects out to 2400 years over a full season. He won't be able to keep up that pace, but he should be good for at least 1700-1800 yards this year, assuming he can stay healthy. Trent Green is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in football, and having LJ behind him should take even more pressure off the passing game and give Green more open targets. The offensive line isn't as strong as it was last year, but this offense still should have no trouble putting points on the board. The defense is another story, however. They picked up Ty Law to help shore up last year's 30th-ranked pass defense, but the 32-year-old cornerback will not be able to solve all the Chiefs' problems. New coach Herm Edwards will likely bring some new ideas to the defense, but whether they will be successful or not remains to be seen. I'm not sure if this team will be much better than last year's, but their schedule seems fairly easy. They were 10-6 last year, barely missing the playoffs, and this year I'll give them an 11-5 record and a wild-card berth.

Oakland: There are three very good teams in this division, and then there are the Raiders. The Raiders are coming off a 4-12 season last year, and they don't really look much better this year. They have a young offensive line and a bad running game, but their biggest problem right now is at quarterback. Aaron Brooks will be the opening day starter, but Randy Moss has already expressed displeasure with how Brooks is playing. But Brooks' backup, Andrew Walter, isn't likely to be making the Pro Bowl anytime soon, either. Walter has been playing well in the preseason, but he's not as talented as Brooks. This team has too much talent to go 4-12 again, but not enough to make a decent run at the playoffs. I can't see them doing much better than 6-10.

San Diego: The Chargers last year were considered one of the most talented teams in the league last year, but finished 9-7, two games out of a playoff spot. The disappointing record was not really a case of underachievement; rather, it was the Chargers' brutal schedule that did them in. This year, their schedule is a bit easier, but they have other questions. How will Phillip Rivers handle his first year in the spotlight? Rivers has been impressive so far in the preseason, but it's still just the preseason. If it turns out Rivers doesn't have what it takes to be a big-time QB (or at least a servicable one), then this franchise will be crippled for the rest of the decade. The Chargers defense last year wasn't great last year, especially against the pass (it's a good time to be an AFC West QB). San Diego has plenty of weapons on offense - especially TE Antonio Gates and RB LaDanian Tomlinson, who both are arguably the best in the league at their position. But there are questions on the offensive line, and overall this team has too many potential flaws that I can't put them in the playoffs. A 10-6 record keeps them in contention until Week 17, but they ultimately lose out and miss the postseason again.

Madden-ness

2006-08-22T14:18:00.000-04:00

The Madden '07 video game hits stores today. Which means that millions of young males will spend the next week and a half hidden in their homes, with their XBox controller slowly becoming an extra appendage. Madden has changed the world in a way that nobody could have ever imagined possible from just a video game.

How much has the game changed the world? Ask anyone under the age of 35 what they think of first when they hear "Madden". They'll immediately tell you about the video game, usually launching into a story about how they beat their buddy with a fourth-and-30 conversion with two minutes remaining. Press them a little further and they'll talk about his Monday Night Football announcing. Virtually nobody knows that Madden was a Super Bowl-winning coach.

And now Madden is so popular that it is a name that everybody around the country knows - up there with Tiger, MJ, and Kobe. And that's partly from his MNF announcing, but it's more from the Madden line of video games. Madden is the most popular and realistic video game on the market; one Sunday my dad woke up from a nap and looked at the TV, where he was surprised that the Falcons were killing the Bills. (He discovered a few minutes later, to his relief, that it was just me playing Madden.)

The other great thing about Madden is how much better the game gets over the years. They could just update the rosters and upgrade the graphics a bit, and they'd still sell millions of copies. But they don't. They continue to redo the game almost completely each year, adding features such as the passing cone or NFL Superstar mode.

How popular is the game now? Earlier in August, EA Sports released a pay-per-view that would let you watch a preview of the video game for only $19.99. In other words, people would plunk down $20 to watch a commercial for a video game. I haven't seen any stats on this, but I would imagine that there were plenty of people willing to do so.

(And I hope that Madden continues to give Michael Vick completely unrealistic ratings. He's nowhere near that good in real life, but it makes playing with the Falcons so much more fun. And I would love to see some other features, such as being able to unlock the field from The Longest Yard when you're playing with the Bengals, but that might have to wait until next year.)

What would you do?

2006-08-21T14:35:00.000-04:00

The Yankees-Red Sox rivalry was taken to new heights earlier this summer. And this incident had nothing to do with pro baseball. Instead, this was a ten-year-old PONY baseball league in Utah, and the two teams in the championship game were named the Yankees and the Red Sox. It was the bottom of the sixth (last) inning, and there was a runner on third and two outs. The Sox's best hitter is up, a slugger who has already hit a triple and a homer in the game. So the Yankees intentionally walk him to pitch to a kid named Romney, the worst hitter on the Red Sox team. Romney strikes out on three pitches, and the Yankees are the league champions.

How does this story warrent national attention? Romney was diagnosed with cancer at age 4, and despite surviving he still has to wear a helmet while playing the outfield because any injury could be life-threatening. After this unfortunate end to the game, the coaching staffs almost came to blows, they were so angry. The small town of Bountiful became deeply divided, and it became enough of a national story that Rick Reilly wrote about it in the August 14th issue of Sports Illustrated. Here's another online article about the story, and you can also see what America thinks on the topic.

So, was this a disgraceful symbol of the win-at-all-costs mentality that defines our nation? Or was this simply a manager trying to act in the best interest of his kids, with the result blown out of proportion by our politically correct media?

I'm going to take the less popular side on this debate and lean towards the latter option. Now, I'm only 15 years old, and I obviously have no children of my own. And I have never known anyone who has gone through cancer treatment, and I hopefully never will. But most of the adults I've talked to agree with me, so I don't think I'm completely out of line here.

If you say that they should have pitched to the slugger and avoided pitching to Rodney, where do you draw the line? If you're at bat and you hit the ball to him, do you refuse to take the extra base? What happens if you pitch to the slugger, but walk him anyways? What then?

It seems to me, for someone like Rodney who has already been through so much, that he would spend a lot of his life trying to be treated like a normal kid. What would they have done if Rodney hadn't gone through cancer? They would have walked the slugger. So I don't think he should be treated specially in this case, because he will already be trying to become like everybody else.

For his part, Reilly took the other side in his column, saying that this was a disgraceful move by the Yankees coach. In one specifically pointed paragraph, he says, "What the Yankees' coaches did was make it about them, not the kids. It became their medal to pin on their pecs and show off at their barbecues. And if a fragile kid got stomped on the way, well, that's baseball. We see it all over the country - the overcaffeinated coach who watches too much SportsCenter and needs to win far more than the kids..."

But there is where I think Reilly is most wrong. What Reilly doesn't realize is that, in 99% of the leagues around the country, it's the kids who want to win more than anybody else. Sure, we hear about the exceptions all the time - the coaches who get thrown out of a Little League game for arguing a call, the parents who come to blows in the stands over something happening on the field. But those are exceptions, and those are very rare. In our 6-year-old coach-pitch league, there was no scorebook, because it was just supposed to be for fun. So what did we do? We kept score by ourselves. (We won all but one game, at least by our count.) If you had asked the kids what they wanted to do, they probably would have wanted to do whatever they could to win the game.

The other point that people will bring up is that it's just a "fun" (a.k.a. noncompetitive) league - there's a four-run limit per inning, and everybody in the lineup hits. But, if there's a championship game, doesn't that mean by definition that there's at least some sort of competition? It's obviously sad for Romney that he was the one to end the game. But let's not send flaming hate mail to the Yankees coach. (Unless you're talking about Joe Torre. That might be okay.)

What was Romney's reaction? He was understandably upset that day - he apparently cried himself to sleep. But he woke up the next morning with one goal in mind: He was going to get better, so that next year they would be walking him.

(The other thing I'm kind of wondering about is why Romney was hitting right after the team's best hitter. It doesn't matter at all to the story, but I thought it was kind of weird.)

Young Pitchers Part II

2006-08-20T14:55:00.000-04:00

In my last post before going on vacation, I ended by saying that we would have to wait to see which pitchers became great and which pitchers became busts. But I didn't like that ending very much. So I decided to try to figure out myself which pitchers would be great. There's not much statistical reasoning or anything else besides basic intuition guiding these picks, so don't be surprised if they're completely wrong. But, by posting them here, if something crazy happens and one or more of my picks happen to be accurate, I can gloat about it later.

Remember, according to recent history, out of the six stars of this year's class there will be:

1 Superstar (perennial Cy Young candidate)
2 Great Pitchers (#1 starters, borderline All-Star pitchers)
1 Good Pitcher (roughly a #2 starter)
1 Mediocre Pitcher (back end of the rotation)
1 Bust (out of baseball or completely ineffective)

The Superstar:

Scott Kazmir - To the chagrin of Mets fans everywhere, I believe Kazmir has the stuff to be a superstar pitcher for years to come. Kazmir posted 10 wins before the All-Star break despite playing on the lowly Devil Rays, and he's had 10 strikeouts in three of his last six starts. He did serve a DL stint at the end of July, but that was a minor problem that seems to be behind him. Despite missing a couple weeks of the season, Kazmir still ranks 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (with 155). Kazmir should eventually fill his trophy case with multiple Cy Young victories, and, if the D-Rays keep improving or Kazmir moves to a better team, a World Series ring.

The Great Pitchers:

Jon Papelbon - Papelbon has been great so far as closer for the Red Sox, but whether or not he will remain a closer is yet to be seen. The Sox management has expressed interest in moving Papelbon to the rotation as early as next year, possibly filling the closer role with another young pitcher such as Craig Hansen. But the transition shouldn't be too difficult for Paplebon - while most closers usually have one great pitch that they throw most of the time (i.e. Rivera, Billy Wagner, etc.), Paplebon has a full arsenal of pitches to use, which suits him well for a starting role. Also, Pap has thrown two innings or more in one outing often this year, so his stamina shouldn't be a problem. Finally, having Papelbon close this year cuts down on his workload, so he may be less likely to suffer injury problems. However, Pap is 25 years old (older than anyone else on this list), so he's closer to his ceiling than most of these other pitchers are.

Justin Verlander - Verlander may be headed for a sophmore slump next year due to his workload this year (he's likely to top 200 IP this year, plus some more in the playoffs), but that should be a minor abberation. As long as the Tigers are careful with Verlander, he should remain a top pitcher for years to come. He's not striking a ton of guys out, but he's getting outs and is tied for second in the AL with 14 wins. He has had trouble against the top teams - 0-4 with a 7.66 ERA vs the White Sox, Red Sox, and Yankees this year - but he should only get better over time.

The Good Pitcher:

Jered Weaver - Weaver has been nothing short of incredible this year - he still has yet to lose a game in 12 starts, and he has an ERA under 2.00. But there is one major reason why Weaver won't succeed - he's a fly-ball pitcher. Weaver gets almost twice as many fly-balls as grounders, and it's worked well for him so far. But fly-ball pitchers typically are very inconsistent, because if the wind is blowing out one day or you don't have your best stuff, those fly balls become doubles and homers. So I don't think Weaver has the ability to become a great pitcher unless he changes his strategy a bit. But he could still be a #3-4 starter for the improving Angels for the better part of a decade.

The Mediocre Pitcher:

Jon Lester - Lester goes here because he simply isn't as good as the others. He does have a 6-2 record, but his ERA is just under 5.00, so that record is a bit decieving. More alarming is the fact that opposing hitters are hitting .316 off him. (That's saying, in effect, that an average hitter becomes an all-star hitter when he faces Lester.) Maybe putting Lester on this list was a stretch, but either way he probably won't amount to more than a fourth starter in the big leagues.

The Bust:

Who haven't I mentioned yet? Francisco Liriano. Yes, I'm saying that Liriano will be a bust. Now, this probably isn't quite as bold a prediction as it was a week and a half ago, when I actually decided to make it, but it still borders on baseball sacrilege. It has nothing to do with Liriano's talent; he obviously could be one of the top ten lefties of all-time if he kept this up. But Liriano has been injury-plagued throughout his minor-league career, and he now is expected to go on the DL with soreness in his forearm (and other problems). This is a very serious injury - it is very possible that Liriano misses the rest of the season, even with the Twins in a heated pennant race. The Twins have generally been very careful with their young pitchers, but Liriano may still be too fragile to bring back. The list of great young pitchers with major injuries is very long, and the list of those who came back to be great again is significantly shorter. Sure, it seems impossible right now that Liriano could be a major bust, but people said that about Mark Prior three years ago.

================

A very important story broke this morning - Tom Glavine has arm trouble, and may miss the rest of the season. We'll have to wait for another few days to figure out what will happen, but Glavine is 40 years old and it's very possible that he may need surgery. Glavine has been the leader of the staff throughout the year, and losing him would be a big blow to the Mets' World Series hopes. The Mets could probably start you, me, and seven of your friends from here on out and still make the playoffs. But if they're going to make a deep run, the Mets are going to need a healthy Pedro and a healthy Glavine. And right now they have neither.

Young Pitchers

2006-08-08T16:47:00.000-04:00

First off, I should say that I'm going on vacation tomorrow and I have no idea if I'm going to be able to write or not. So, if you come across this a week from now and see that it hasn't been updated in a week, check back a little later. I'll write again eventually.

Anyways, in honor of the Year of the Rookie Pitcher, I've decided to do a study of all the "can't miss" pitchers that had outstanding seasons in one of their first years. All the pitchers in this year's class would never be traded in any deal whatsoever. Basically, the question I'm trying to answer is: Should these rookie pitchers be as untouchable as they really are?

So I looked for all the similar seasons in years past. I only went back to the beginning of this decade/century/millenium, because that was as far back as I could really remember. The pitchers on this list have to have dominating stats, but the media hype surrounding these pitchers is just as important as their pitching itself, and I would not be able to judge the hype on any player farther back.

To clarify my selection process:

The player must be 25 years old or younger. All the pitchers in this year's class are 25 or younger, as are most hyped young pitchers. Pitchers that young still haven't matured completely, and as a result they are often injury risks. Most of these organizations have taken all the necessary precautions to lessen the risk of serious injury, but pitchers can still always get hurt at any time. That's one of the reason young pitching is such a risky investment.

They must have a career high in innings pitched, in the year that they finally became a can't miss pitcher. They don't necessarily have to be rookies, but they can't have been around the league for a while either. Occasionally you'll see pitchers come up at 21-22 years old, and struggle some, then gradually improve and have a great year by the time they're 25. That's not the kind of player I'm looking for right now.

They must be a top prospect. Here's a perfect example of this: Last year the Pirates called up Zach Duke around July to make his big-league debut. Duke was a 20th-round draft choice, and was thought of as a decent but not great prospect coming up in the system. But Duke won his first six decisions, with a number of great starts in July and August, and finished the year 6-2. This year, he has an ERA in the fives, and is nothing more than a subpar #3 starter on a bad team. But this wasn't hard to see coming - Duke was never supposed to be that good in the first place.

Anyways, onto the list. The list is sorted chronologically by year in which the players had their breakout season.

Class of 2000:

Tim Hudson - One could make the case that Hudson's breakout season was actually '99, when he went 11-2 with a 3.24 ERA. But, since I didn't go back that far, I put his 2000 season on the list. Hudson seemed poised to become a big-time ace after his 20-6 season in 2000. And, for the most part, he was, posting three more 15+ win seasons over the next three years while anchoring the vaunted Athletics staff. He went 12-6 in 2004, and was traded to the Braves before the 2005 season. But this year, Hudson has been atrocious, with an 8-10 record and a 5.22 ERA. Did the A's get their money's worth out of Hudson? Absolutely. Is this season just an aberration? Possibly. But maybe all the innings he worked when he was 24-25 caught up to him; he is only 31 right now but seems a couple more bad years away from retirement.

2000 Stats: 202.1 IP, 20-6, 4.14 ERA, 169 SO (Age 24)
2006 Stats*: 148.1 IP, 8-10, 5.22 ERA, 93 SO
Career: 114-58, 3.51 ERA
The Verdict: Overall, a very good career.

Rick Ankiel - Probably the most famous case of a young pitcher gone bad. Ankiel finished 2nd in the ROY voting in 2000, finishing with a 3.50 ERA and an astounding 194 strikeouts. Entering the postseason, Ankiel was thought of as the top young pitcher in baseball and a future Cy Young candidate for the remainder of the decade. But in the postseason, things started to go wrong. Ankiel started Game 1 of the NLDS against Atlanta, and proceeded to throw five wild pitches in the third inning. He lost his control again in Game 2 of the NLCS, and was never the same again. Ankiel posted a 7.13 ERA in six games in 2001, and was sent down to the minors. After a brief big-league stint in '04, Ankiel decided to switch to the outfield. He's currently trying to make the Cardinals roster as a left fielder (really).

2000 Stats: 175 IP, 11-7, 3.50 ERA, 194 SO (Age 21)
2006 Stats: N/A
Career: 13-10, 3.91 ERA
The Verdict: Total Bust

2001:

Wade Miller - Who? Wade Miller, that's who. Not many people remember it now, but once upon a time Oswalt and Miller were as dominating a pair of young aces as Hudson and Zito. Miller posted a 16-8 record and a 3.40 ERA in '01, helping lead the Astros to the playoffs. Miller posted another stellar season in '02, going 15-4 with a 3.28 ERA. He took a small step back in '03, but was still thought of as a good pitcher entering 2004. Miller posted an ERA in the threes in '04, but went on the DL in late June and didn't pitch for the rest of the year. Miller signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox in 2005, but was injured again. This year he is under contract with the Cubs, but has not pitched yet due to a shoulder injury.

2001 Stats: 212 IP, 16-8, 3.40 ERA, 183 SO (Age 24)
2006 Stats: N/A
Career: 62-43, 3.98 ERA
The Verdict: Mostly a bust.

Roy Oswalt - Hey, speaking of Astros, here's one that turned out a little better. Oswalt had a great rookie year in 2001, going 14-3 and posting a 2.73 ERA. And he's been almost as good since. Oswalt posted 20-win seasons in both '04 and '05, despite having a bad offense behind him. He missed a couple weeks this year due to injury, but it wasn't anything serious. Oswalt now is definitively one of the top ten pitchers in the game, and he's in his prime.

2001 Stats: 141.2 IP, 14-3, 2.73 ERA, 144 SO (Age 23)
2006 Stats: 151 IP, 8-7, 3.34 ERA, 103 SO
Career: 91-46, 3.34 ERA
The Verdict: Big-time stud.

Ben Sheets - Actually, I have no idea if 2001 is the right year to put Sheets. '01 was his rookie year, but you could make a case to put Sheets in '02 or '03. But, whichever year you want to go with, Sheets was supposed to be one of the best pitchers of the decades. But, for some reason, it didn't pan out. I guess Sheets is a little different from everyone else on this list in the sense that he never completely proved himself in the big leagues. But he had such great stuff, everyone figured he would eventually (the Brewers are still holding out hope). His '01 stats aren't impressive - 11-10, a 4.76 ERA - but people figured he would just get better from there. Problem was, he didn't. 2004 was his best season, where he had a 2.70 ERA but posted a 10-12 record. But Sheets has had injury problems this year, and has performed poorly when he hasn't been hurt. We'll see what the future holds for Sheets. The Brewers certainly hope he can right himself.

2001 Stats: 151.1 IP, 11-10, 4.76 ERA, 94 SO (Age 23)
2006 Stats: 36.1 IP, 2-4, 4.71 ERA, 44 SO
Career: 57-66, 3.86 ERA
The Verdict: Unless he gets better quickly, somewhat of a bust.

C.C. Sabathia - Sabathia finished second to Ichiro in the 2001 ROY voting and deservedly so, with a 17-5 record. Since then, he has been a decent pitcher, but not quite the top-of-the-rotation stud that he was expected to be. Sabathia has a good winning percentage over his career, but he has had a very good offense behind him, for the most part. Sabathia has also stayed remarkably injury-free, though the Indians have been careful to limit his innings. All in all, he's been a decent pitcher.

2001 Stats: 180.1 IP, 17-5, 4.39 ERA, 171 SO (Age 21)
2006 Stats: 123.1 IP, 8-8, 3.43 ERA, 109 SO
Career: 77-53, 4.02 ERA
The Verdict: A solid pitcher, but not a great one.

Mark Buehrle - I can never spell his last name correctly, but otherwise Buehrle has been a very good pitcher for his career. Buehrle's numbers in '01 were spectacular - 16-8 with a 3.29 ERA. And he continued to be a very good pitcher over the next few years. He did make the All-star team this year, but everything has gone wrong since then. In Buehrle's last seven starts, he has gone 0-6 with a 9.61 ERA. People are saying he's tipping his changeup; I don't know the reason but I know that he's going to have to perform better if the Sox are going anywhere this year. This rocky stretch aside, Buehrle has been a very good pitcher.

2001 Stats: 221.1 IP, 16-8, 3.29 ERA, 126 SO (Age 22)
2006 Stats: 151 IP, 9-10, 4.89 ERA, 67 SO
Career: 94-63, 3.77 ERA
The Verdict: A very good pitcher. Not quite Cy Young caliber, but the next level.

Barry Zito - Zito was great as well in '01, with a 17-8 record and a 3.49 ERA. He had an even better season the next year, posting an amazing 23-5 record. He hasn't been quite as good since, but has been a solid pitcher in front of a weak lineup. This year, he has a 3.50 ERA and a 12-7 record as he approaches free agency. One note of worry to prospective buyers in the offseason: Zito has thrown over 200 innings in each of the last five years, and is on pace to do so again this year. Eventually, all those innings are going to catch up on him...

2001 Stats: 214.1 IP, 17-8, 3.49 ERA, 205 SO (Age 23)
2006 Stats: 156.2 IP, 12-7, 3.50 ERA, 109 SO
Career: 98-60, 3.50 ERA
The Verdict: Certainly a very good pitcher, but not quite as great as you'd think (and don't be surprised if he's headed for some rocky seasons ahead)

Mark Mulder - Mulder completes the Oakland trio, and he started with arguably the best season out of all of them. Mulder had a 21-8 campaign in 2001 in which he posted a 3.45 ERA. Mulder's strikeout numbers are low compared to the rest of these pitchers, but his numbers have been surprisingly stellar up until this year. Mulder put up 15+ wins and single-digit losses every year from '01-'05, and only once had an ERA above 3.70. But this year in St. Louis, Mulder has just a 6-5 record with a 6.09 ERA, and that's while playing in ~~AAA~~ the National League. Mulder is currently on the DL with a sore shoulder; his sudden downfall looks much loke that of Tim Hudson. You might want to wish Zito some good luck...

2001 Stats: 229.1 IP, 21-8, 3.45 ERA, 153 SO (Age 24)
2006 Stats: 88.2 IP, 6-5, 6.09 ERA, 48 SO
Career: 103-55, 4.03 ERA
The Verdict: One of the game's best until this year.

2002:

Jason Jennings - Jennings won the NL Rookie of the Year award in '02, and was supposed to anchor the Rockies' staff for the rest of the decade. But since then, he's been nothing short of average. His ERA was above 5 until this year (when all the Coors Field numbers mysteriously dropped), and his record has been below .500 every year since '02. He has been a decent middle-of-the-rotation guy, but that's not what you want from your ROY winner (even if it was a sub-par rookie class).

2002 Stats: 185.1 IP, 13-8, 4.52 ERA, 127 SO (Age 24)
2006 Stats: 157.2 IP, 7-9, 3.48 ERA, 111 SO
Career: 56-52, 4.75 ERA
The Verdict: The definition of a mediocre pitcher.

John Lackey - Lackey was a forgotten piece of the Angels' '02 pennant run, and he's stayed largely forgotten since. Lackey was called up midseason but made the best of the limited opportunities he had, going 9-4 with a 3.66 ERA. After a couple down years in '03 and '04, Lackey became a top pitcher again in '05 with a 14-5 campaign, and he's been great again this season. He is definitely one of the most underrated pitchers in the game today, and he's still only 27.

2002 Stats: 108.1 IP, 9-4, 3.66 ERA, 69 SO (Age 23)
2006 Stats: 153.2 IP, 10-7, 3.28 ERA, 129 SO
Career: 57-45, 4.00 ERA
The Verdict: Going to be great for years to come.

Francisco Rodriguez - "K-Rod" was arguably the most famous piece of that '02 Angels team, being called up in September and delivering in key spots at the tender age of 20. What he did in the playoffs was even more impressive, pitching more than 18 innings with an ERA just under 2. K-Rod attracted media attention like no other middle reliever ever has, and has since settled into the closer role nicely. Rodriguez is probably one of the top ten closers in the game as of today, and he's still only 24.

2002 Stats: 5.2 IP, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 13 SO(!) (Age 20)
2006 Stats: 45.1 IP, 27 SV, 2.38 ERA, 58 SO
Career: 14-11, 86 SV, 2.44 ERA
The Verdict: Certainly a great pitcher so far, though he's still fairly young.

2003:

Dontrelle Willis - Willis set the baseball world on fire with his performance after being called up from AAA in 2003, going 14-6 with a 3.31 ERA. And his fun-loving style and herky-jerky motion made him a media darling then and now. But Willis hasn't been as good as you'd think since then. He deserved to win the Cy Young last year (and got ripped off for reasons I'll describe another day), but that year is now sandwiched between two seasons with an ERA over four. Willis has tremendous talent (and he's still only 24), but he needs to be more consistent if he's going to be a top-level pitcher.

2003 Stats: 160.2 IP, 14-6, 3.31 ERA, 142 SO (Age 21)
2006 Stats: 153.1 IP, 7-8, 4.05 ERA, 99 SO
Career: 53-35, 3.43 ERA
The Verdict: Insanely talented in odd-numbered years, mediocre in even ones.

Josh Beckett - Best known for his complete-game shutout of the Yankees to close out the '03 World Series, Beckett joined Willis to make the Marlins' rotation a fearsome bunch. Beckett was only 23 when he posted a 3.08 ERA over the course of the '03 season, and was even better in the playoffs. The Marlins suprisingly dealt him to Boston after the '05 season, and Beckett has struggled in Beantown. He has an ERA of exactly 5.00, and has not pitched nearly as well as his 13-6 record seems to indicate. And Beckett has suffered from the injury bug as much as anybody else has over the past few seasons, missing 5-10 starts every year due to injury. Beckett has been lucky to escape the DL this season, but Boston fans still have reason to worry.

2003 Stats: 142 IP, 9-8, 3.04 ERA, 152 SO (Age 23)
2006 Stats: 140.1 IP, 13-6, 5.00 ERA, 115 SO
Career: 54-40, 3.75 ERA
The Verdict: Servicable #1 or #2 starter until this year; not Cy Young stuff but still very good.

Carlos Zambrano - Zambrano has been and still is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, standing under the shadow (or is it now gravestone?) of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. But Zambrano has been much better than either of those two over the past few seasons, and deservedly made the all-star team this year. Zambrano was mostly an afterthought in 2003 with Wood and Prior each taking the mound every five days, but Zambrano put up good numbers as well. He's only gotten better since then, and he's still just 25 years old. Draft him for your Fantasy team next year and be smarter than everyone else in your league (if only I had done that this year...). His workload may cause some trouble later on in his career, though.

2003 Stats: 214 IP, 13-11, 3.11 ERA, 168 SO (Age 22)
2006 Stats: 158 IP, 12-4, 3.42 ERA, 158 SO
Career: 60-39, 3.28 ERA
The Verdict: One of the game's best. He will anchor the Cubs' rotation for the rest of the decade, if not longer.

Mark Prior - From one extreme to the other. Prior was the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft, and by 2003 it looked like the Twins made a mistake by passing over him. (Who did they take? Some guy named Joe Mauer. Yeah, I don't think the Twins regret it any more.) Prior posted an 18-6 season in 2003, backing that up with a 2.43 ERA. And then the injuries started coming. Prior missed a third of his starts in 2004 and some more in '05, though he finished last season with a respectable 11-7 record and a 3.67 ERA. This year, he's only started eight games and has been awful overall, with a 6.64 ERA and a 1-5 record. And there's no real bright spot on the horizon. Prior is another great example of why not to put all your faith in a rookie pitcher.

2003 Stats: 211.1 IP, 18-6, 2.43 ERA, 245 SO (Age 22)
2006 Stats: 40.2 IP, 1-5, 6.64 ERA, 37 SO
Career: 42-28, 3.45 ERA
The Verdict: As of now, mostly a bust.

Brandon Webb - Webb is another of the most underrated pitchers in the game today. Webb posted a 2.84 ERA in his rookie 2003 campaign, and his career has been just as good since. He suffered through a 7-16 season in '04 despite having a 3.59 ERA, and this year is 12-4 with a league-leading 2.74 ERA. He does have a minor injury right now but nothing too serious, and Webb is right now one of the top five or ten pitchers in the game. If the season ended today, Webb would almost certainly win the NL Cy Young award.

2003 Stats: 180.2 IP, 10-9, 2.84 ERA, 172 SO (Age 24)
2006 Stats: 167.1 IP, 12-4, 2.74 ERA, 125 SO
Career: 43-41, 3.22
The Verdict: Absolutely a top-five pitcher this year and should be for years to come. Things couldn't have worked out better.

2004:

Oliver Perez - The story of Oliver Perez was what actually inspired me to write this column. As recently ago as 2004, Perez was one of the best young pitchers in the game. That year, his first full season as a starter, Perez posted a 2.99 ERA and an astounding 239 strikeouts. Two years later? He was essentially a throw-in to a Roberto Hernandez-Xavier Nady trade. Oh yeah, and he has a 2-10 record. As a 22-year-old phenom in '04, his trade value (at that time) would be somewhere near that of Liriano or Verlander right now. It's amazing how things can change. What happened? Perez simply lost control of his pitches. His walk total stayed almost the same from '04 to '05, even though he threw half as many innings in the latter year, and his ERA almost doubled. Right now, he's struggling in AAA. Perez is only 24, so there's still some hope. But not much.

2004 Stats: 196 IP, 12-10, 2.99 ERA, 239 SO (Age 22)
2006 Stats: 76 IP, 2-10, 6.63 ERA, 61 SO
Career: 29-40, 4.56 ERA
The Verdict: Right now, a complete bust. But there's still some time.

Rich Harden - Yes, another member of the A's is on this list. And early on in his career, Harden was thought to be even better than the first three. His numbers weren't astronomical - 11-7, 3.99 ERA - but he was supposed to get better and better. What's happened? Well, we can't really tell for sure. He missed a third of the season last year to an injury but still posted a great 2.53 ERA. And this year, he's only made six starts (though he's thrown well then). So we can't really get a feel for what Harden will be like in the future. We know he's talented. But we've been down Injury Road before, and it's not easy to come back from.

2004 Stats: 189.2 IP, 11-7, 3.99 ERA, 167 SO (Age 22)
2006 Stats: 35 IP, 3-0, 3.86 ERA, 34 SO
Career: 29-16, 3.62 ERA
The Verdict: Bitten by the injury bug. He definitely can pitch, though.

2005:

Huston Street - Street claimed AL Rookie of the Year honors last year despite not taking over the closing job until late May; Street still finished with 23 saves and only 4 blown saves. Street has the stuff to be a closer, and it looks like he will be good in the big leagues. He had some problems earlier in the year, but it looks like he's over them now. It's too soon to get an accurate read on his full big-league potential, but he's progressing really well.

2005 Stats: 78.1 IP, 23 SV, 1.72 ERA, 72 SO (Age 22)
2006 Stats: 53.1 IP, 25 SV, 2.87 ERA, 52 SO
Career: 48 SV, 2.19 ERA
The Verdict: Too soon to tell.

Felix Hernandez - King Felix absolutely lit the baseball world on fire with his pitching last season - he posted a 2.67 ERA in 12 starts of work. Oh yeah, he was only 19 years old. I still think that most baseball GMs would take Felix over any other young, unproven pitcher in the game (including Liriano), but he hasn't really pitched like it so far this year. He has a 10-9 record, and his 4.49 ERA is cause for concern. He's still striking out hitters at the same pace he always was, but he seems to be struggling a little bit everywhere else. This is probably just an adjustment period; he's still only 20 years old.

2005 Stats: 84.1 IP, 4-4, 2.67 ERA, 77 SO (Age 19)
2006 Stats: 128.1 IP, 10-9, 4.49 ERA, 117 SO
Career: 14-13, 3.77 ERA
The Verdict: Too soon to tell.

2006:

Obviously, it's too soon to give any predictions on the 2006 class. But they're certainly very good. We'll see what happens in the years to come...

Scott Kazmir -

2006 Stats: 128.2 IP, 10-7, 3.36 ERA, 139 SO (Age 22)

Justin Verlander -

2006 Stats: 135.1 IP, 14-4, 2.79 ERA, 92 SO (Age 23)

Francisco Liriano -

2006 Stats: 119 IP, 12-2, 2.19 ERA, 142 SO (Age 22)

Jonathan Papelbon -

2006 Stats: 56.2 IP, 30 SV, 0.64 ERA, 58 SO (Age 25)

Jon Lester -

2006 Stats: 62.2 IP, 5-1, 3.59 ERA, 46 SO (Age 22)

Jered Weaver -

2006 Stats: 63.2 IP, 7-0, 1.70 ERA, 50 SO (Age 23)

So, adding up all the "verdicts" here...we basically have four great aces (Zambrano, Webb, Oswalt, K-Rod), six very good to great pitchers (#1-2 starters), two "good" pitchers (decent #2 guys), four "average" pitchers, and three complete busts. Expanding that to the six pitchers in this year's class, it looks like we should have one stud, two very good pitchers, one good pitcher, one average pitcher, and one bust.

Going back to the question I asked at the beginning of this column (if you can remember that far back), should a team think about trading one of these young pitchers? They'd have to get a great offer, but they should think about it. There's roughly a 50% chance that the pitcher becomes an all-star caliber pitcher, but also a 33% chance he becomes a back-of-the-rotation type or worse. So, if you can get a great deal, you should probably think about it.

(My follow-up post on this topic gives my pick for who will be the star, bust, etc.)

*2006 and career stats are as of 8/8/06

NFL Preview: AFC South

2006-08-07T18:38:00.000-04:00

Here's the third of my preseason NFL previews. I'm posting twice today, partly because I don't have anything else to do, and partly because I don't know how much I'll be able to post over the next couple weeks. I have already previewed the AFC East and the AFC North. I had zero wild-card winners coming out of both those divisions, so I guess I'll have to have someone out of this division, unless I want to have both coming from the West.

Houston: The Texans had the worst record in football last year, a 2-14 season that gave them the #1 draft pick. DE Mario Williams will have to be a pro-bowler soon in order for the fans to forget that they passed up Reggie Bush; Williams should be a good talent but he probably won't outshine the spectacular USC running back. Regardless of who they have on the defense or at running back, this team will not be any good until they can field a decent offensive line. From what I've heard, the Texans have made some progress on that front, though it would be hard to go down from where they were. An interesting fact: The Texans have never beaten the Indianapolis Colts. An interesting stat. It's still hard to judge David Carr's talent, given that he never has time to throw the ball. This year, we should be able to find out how good the former #1 pick really is. They won't be as bad as last year, but I still think they have a couple seasons to go before contending. I'll give them 5-11.

Indianapolis: The Colts are fairly easy to predict - they had a 14-2 record last year, and they're sure to see double digits again. They're in an easy division, and they have tremendous talent on the offensive end. But, at this point, the regular season doesn't matter for the Colts. All that matters is how they do in the playoffs. And that's not what I'm predicting right now. So this should be short. The one thing to look at is how they will survive the loss of Edgerrin James. It doesn't take a great running back to put up yards in that system, with teams all playing back to protect the deep ball from Manning to Harrison. But James was good enough that he was able to take some of the pressure off the passing game, while Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai will not. I believe that whoever ends up getting carries will post good numbers, but the offense overall will suffer. Looking at that schedule, I see no way the Colts could possibly finish with less than 11 wins, so I'll pick 13-3.

Jacksonville: The Jaguars were easily the most underrated team in football last year, and they could be again this year. They don't have a flashy offense or lots of playmakers on defense, but they wear opponents into the ground with their physical style. The Steelers come to town on Monday night during Week 2, and I think the Jags will show America what they're made of in that game. Jacksonville doesn't really have a go-to guy at WR, though, and Byron Leftwich hasn't quite reached his full potential. The Jags won most of their games last year against teams that missed the playoffs, but sometimes that's enough. I don't think Jacksonville can match their 12-4 record from last season, but I'll take them to go 10-6 and make the playoffs as a wild-card team.

Tennessee: The Titans were 4-12 last year, and are officially in rebuilding mode. Billy Volek will open camp as the starting QB, but Vince Young should take over that role by November. I think Norm Chow will improve that offense again this year, but I don't think it should be enough to make a huge difference. The defense isn't really good, and overall I see no reason why the Titans will be better this year than they were last year. I predict a one-game improvement, a 5-11 season.

NFL Preview: AFC North

2006-08-07T14:27:00.000-04:00

Today I'm continuing my NFL preseason previews with the AFC North. In case you haven't seen it, I've already covered the AFC East. Football season is still a month away, but it's never too early to talk a little NFL (plus there's nothing else really going on in August). So, let's start breaking down the teams...

Baltimore: Lots of people like the Ravens to make a big jump this year. Jason Whitlock on ESPN.com even picked them to win Super Bowl XLI. But people said the Ravens would be a playoff team last year, and they suffered a terrible 6-10 season. They have upgraded greatly at quarterback from Kyle Boller to Steve McNair, but I don't think that upgrade will put them into the playoffs. McNair is old (33), but his body is even older - he's taken so many hits and been running for his life the past few seasons that he's extremely beat up. He also has a large history of injuries, so what happens to the Ravens bandwagon if McNair goes down in Week 3? Back to the Kyle Boller era. I wouldn't want to take that chance. Jamal Lewis used to be a great running back, but he was terrible last year. Will he become a great player again? I don't know. And the defense is still good, but they won't be reminding anyone of the '00 Ravens defense anytime soon. Ed Reed is arguably the best defensive player in the league, but Ray Lewis is not the player he once was, and their secondary lacks depth. Expect them to be a little better, but not playoff-bound, especially in a good division. If they're .500 at the end of the year, it will have been a good season.

Cincinatti: Much has been made of the Bengals' off-the-field problems this year - they've had numerous run-ins with the law, especially on the defensive side. People are calling them the Portland Trail Blazers of the NFL (more creative people like Bill Simmons have came up with new names, i.e. the "Cinmates"). But that kind of thing doesn't usually affect a player's performance on the field, unless it's really serious. The more pressing problem for the Bengals is Carson Palmer's knee. Palmer led the Bengals to an 11-5 season last year, and threw for more touchdowns than anyone in the league last year. If Palmer is healthy, this is arguably the best offense in the league - Rudi Johnson is a very good running back, Chad Johnson is a top-ten wide reciever, and the offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. But if Palmer's knee isn't healthy, it will be either Doug Johnson or Anthony Wright throwing the ball. And the defense was among the worst in the league last year. I think only one team from this division will make the playoffs - this is a balanced division, and they have to play the NFC South (which is possibly the best division in football) in interconference play. The Bengals have a very tough schedule, but I think Palmer will be healthy enough to lead this team back into the playoffs. They won't be as good as last year, though - 9-7, 10-6 maybe.

Cleveland: The Browns took a major step up last year, going from a 3-13 season in 2004 to a 6-10 record last year. What will happen in year 2 of the Romeo Crennel era? Either the Browns continue to improve, or their progress will be stunted and they'll have another 6-10 season. And since this is the 21st century, I'm not going to bet against any past or current Patriots coaches. Last year was the first time a lot of their players ever played in a 3-4 defense; this year their defense is a year more experienced and they brought in former Patriots Ted Washington and Willie McGinest to help. Their o-line should be better this year as well, and Charlie Frye is in his second year as the Browns' quarterback. The Browns' season will ride on Frye, but I think he will handle the pressure. I predict an 8-8 season for the Browns.

Pittsburgh: Every year there is one team that had a great year the previous year, and then falls off the map the next year. I'm sure you're all familiar with the curse of the Super Bowl loser, but I think the Steelers will have some trouble this year as well. The Steelers snuck in the playoffs last year as the sixth seed (albeit with an 11-5 record), and they're losing Jerome Bettis. Losing the Bus probably won't cause them too much grief on the field, but Bettis was a leader in the locker room and will be sorely missed. I don't think Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle accident should affect him too much, but I also don't think he was that great before the accident. He had everything going for him last year, and this year their karma and momentum will be gone. Willie Parker was a pleasant surprise last year at running back, but this year all the pressure will be on him. Hines Ward is still around, but Roethlisberger lost his #2 target Antwaan Randle El. The Steelers were a little lucky last year in their run to the Super Bowl, and the NFL is such a different league year-to-year that I expect Pittsburgh to take a major step back. I don't really have a reason for it, but I say the Steelers will have a 9-7 season and miss the playoffs. And if they repeat as Super Bowl champions, you know who to thank.

Wild, indeed

2006-08-06T18:05:00.000-04:00

Not much in the news today, so instead of doing another segment of my NFL preview, I'll look at baseball instead and handicap the NL wild card race. I'm working on an analysis of young pitchers that I'll post either tomorrow or Tuesday, and I'll have more NFL stuff coming up. And I will probably write something on the Floyd Landis situation, though I need to decide what angle I want to write from.

Anyways, the trade deadline has passed and the dog days of August are upon us. That means that the pennant races are becoming more clear, and I am your visionary to help determine how the races will play out. The AL playoff picture is fairly simple - the Tigers are going to win the Central. The Yankees and Red Sox are in almost a dead heat to win the East, though the Yankees seem to have the edge as of today. That leaves three teams for the wild card - Chicago, Minnesota, and the Red Sox (or the Yankees). The three teams are separated by only 1.5 games, with the White Sox currently leading. The run differential stats seem to pick the White Sox as the favorite, but that may not happen. The Red Sox seem to have the hardest schedule remaining of the three, though the Twins and White Sox have nine games left (including a three-game series to end the season) that will determine which one is the frontrunner. Oakland seems to be in control of the West, but none of those teams are wild-card contenders.

But things in the National League are much more complicated. There are ten teams within 6.5 games of the wild card right now. The Reds are two games clear of the field, but they've been struggling lately. I'm going to assume right now that the Mets win the East and the Cardinals win the Central, but the West is wide open. The Padres are leading the division right now, but the Dodgers have won their last nine games and look like the best team (to me) on paper. The best stat right now for the Dodgers - they are the only team in the NL (aside from the Mets) that has a run differential better than +20. For those of you who wonder why I keep bringing this up, run differential is a critical stat because it is often a more accurate measure of how well a team has been playing than wins and losses. A team with a low run differential and a high winning percentage has often been lucky and their record will usually drop eventually. I could go into more detail, but that's the main point.

The Dodgers seem like the third-best team in the NL right now, but what happens if they win the division? It becomes a dogfight between Cincy, San Diego, Arizona, Colorado, Philly, and Houston. According to my new favorite site coolstandings.com, the Reds are currently the WC favorite, but not by much. The Rockies have the best run differential. The Padres have the best pitching. The D-Backs have the youth that we've seen win so many times before. The Astros have the recent history of making a late-season charge. And the Philles still have hope, despite virtually giving up on this season and trading away Lidle and Abreu. Ultimately, it will come down to which team goes on a run in August or September. If you make me pick one, well...

Let's start by eliminating teams. Arizona is the first to go - they are too young and their pitching doesn't seem very strong to me. I'm throwing out Philly because they traded away two of their best players - no team can recover from that. And I know the Rockies have the best run differential, but too many players have been having career years (i.e. the entire pitching staff). You'd think they were playing a mile below sea level instead of a mile above, given the level of scoring there this year. So that leaves Cincy, San Diego, and Houston. Houston right now is four games behind the other two, but they didn't have Roger Clemens for the first three months of the season. Cincy has the best offense and the best bullpen of those four, but would you bet on a team that currently has Eric Milton as their #3 starter? Me neither. Much has been made of the Astros' offensive woes, but they've actually scored more runs than the Padres. And they still have Oswalt, Clemens, and Pettitte in their starting roation. So I'm going to stick with my midseason pick and take the Astros. With absolutely no confidence at all.

NFL Preview: AFC East

2006-08-03T16:50:00.000-04:00

Training camps are underway, and you know what that means - it's football season, at least in the minds of writers and TV/radio programmers. I actually happen to be more of a baseball guy myself, but I'm flexible. Today kicks off my NFL preview; I'll be continuing it through the next few weeks on days when I don't have anything better to write about. I'll start with the AFC East, and go team-by-team and outline each franchise's outlook for the upcoming season.

Buffalo: The Bills were 5-11 last year, a disappointing season in which many people thought they would become a playoff contender. Their defense, which was the strength of the team two years ago, finished 29th last year in yards allowed per game (ahead of only the vaunted Rams, Texans, and 49ers). And their offense was 28th in yards per game. Willis McGahee is a good running back, but the offensive line in front of him is terrible. So unless J.P. Losman somehow becomes a decent quarterback with three opponents in his face every play, things won't get much better for the Bills. Losman has two good recievers to throw to in Lee Evans and Josh Reed, but their talents will likely go to waste this year. (Niskayuna native Andre' Davis will also be catching passes for the Bills, wearing jersey number 18.) LB Takeo Spikes' return from injury should help the defense out some, but otherwise the Bills haven't done much to improve on either side of the ball. I think they'll be 6-10, maybe 7-9 at best this season. And I say this with a sense of happiness, as my dad grew up in Rochester and is a Bills fan. It's a lot easier to make fun of him when they lose.

Miami: The Dolphins are the trendy pick this year to make "The Leap" and become a legit playoff team, according to many experts. But beware - often that ends up being the kiss of death on a team (remember Arizona last year? The same thing could come into play this year). These experts are in love with coach Nick Saban; the Fins won the last six games of last year to finish at a respectable 9-7. Be careful before you wager heavily on the Dolphins, however. Who are their quarterbacks? The top option is Daunte Culpepper, who is recovering from a serious knee injury. He seems to be fine, but you never know when those things might come back to haunt you. Also, remember the beginning of last season, when Culpepper looked lost without Randy Moss? He was so used to having Moss triple-teamed that he could just look to the other side of the field and know he would have single coverage. He didn't really have to make reads until last year, and he started the season terribly. Maybe a nagging injury was bothering him, and he's a good enough athlete that he should remember how to play the position this year (Miami does have a pretty good group of recievers led by Chris Chambers). But if Culpepper gets hurt or doesn't have his stuff, who plays QB? Joey "What a waste of the #3 pick" Harrington? Cleo "Sweet as a" Lemon? Marcus "If Michael wasn't my brother, I'd be in jail right now" Vick? There's certainly a lot of pressure on Culpepper this year. It's a fairly weak division this year, so I'd predict somewhere around 9-7 again for Miami.

New England: The Pats are coming off a 10-6, division championship season and have lost a few more key cogs on defense. The New England defense was actually 26th last year in yards allowed per game, despite the great reputation it has. But really, who do they have left? I believe that Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Rodney Harrison are the only major players left from their Super Bowl teams in '02 and '04, and Bruschi may have fractured his wrist. Tom Brady missed some of camp as well, but don't worry about him; it was just a sore arm. Better to catch these things now than in September. I don't really know how the Pats will win games this year, but they still have Brady and Belichick, and I can't bet against them in this weak division. I hate to keep picking teams to do what they did last year, but I do believe that the Pats win the division again this year, with a 9-7 or a 10-6 record.

New York: The Jets were able to go 4-4 at the Meadowlands last year. But that's pretty much where the good news ends. The Jets were 0-fer the road, partly due to the loss of quarterback Chad Pennington. Well, Pennington will be back this year. But it's not as if it was John Elway missing from the '90s Broncos. This team is flawed, and Curtis Martin isn't getting any younger. He's been placed on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list for training camp, and I believe Cedric Houston is getting a lot of the reps in camp. I believe Martin is still expected to start the season as the top running back for the Jets, however. The O-Line is not spectacular, and Pennington will really have nobody to throw to (Laveranues Coles is the Jets' top reciever, a guy who would be a good #2 guy but is a below-average #1 option). On the other side of the ball, the Jets had a slightly above-average defense last year, and I don't think it's changed much. They'll be better this year, but the Jets still have a ways to go before they are Super Bowl contenders. I predict a 6-10 season for the Jets.

Chase-ing History

2006-08-02T15:20:00.000-04:00

Chase Utley currently has a 33-game hitting streak. And when someone passes 30, it's time for the national media to start paying attention. I'm glad to see Utley get his due - he's one of the most underrated players in baseball. I should have mentioned him in my top ten MLB players - I don't think he's quite top-ten material, but he'd probably go somewhere in the 11-20 range, especially given the current lack of depth at the position. Right now he's the best second baseman in baseball, and it's really not even close - with Soriano in the outfield, the next-best second baseman in the game is...Brian Roberts? Dan Uggla? I don't really know. Utley's hitting .328 so far this year, along with .566 slugging percentage. He will try to extend his streak to 34 tonight against Jeff Weaver of the Cardinals tonight.

(By the way, some useless but interesting trivia - Hal Chase also had a 33 game hit streak for the New York Highlanders 99 years ago...I wonder if there are any other two players with the same name (one first, one last) who both have 30+ game hit streaks. Somebody needs to get Jayson Stark on this...)

Don't get your hopes up that Utley will be threatening DiMaggio anytime soon - if you feel like doing the math (which for some reason I did) using his .328 batting average, there is a roughly 1 in 190 chance that Utley's streak reaches 56 games (and that's using 4 AB's per game, a fairly generous assumption given walks/etc). But the thing I find interesting about this streak is that it seems he is getting all his hits early in the game (3rd-5th inning). In contrast, teammate Jimmy Rollins kept the suspense going a lot longer at the beginning of the year - I remember him getting all his hits in the eighth or ninth inning. Not really important, but I found it interesting anyways.

Twins sensation Fransisco Liriano will miss tonight's start due to injury - the Twins say it's just a precautionary measure, but it's worth following. Liriano has been outstanding all season, and if this is anything serious, the Twins will be in serious trouble. Boof Bonser, another good young pitching prospect, will get the start instead.

Trade Grades

2006-08-01T17:16:00.000-04:00

One final post before the trade deadline is gone for good, and then I'll move on to other stuff. But I couldn't resist the urge to grade how each team did at the deadline. Trades can still be made in August, but it's a harder process that involves them clearing waivers. Maybe I'll explain it later, but that's a story for a different time.

These grades represent what the front office did in the month of July, and focus only on what the team did (and not any other teams). For example, one could call the Red Sox losers from the deadline because the Yankees made themselves better, but that's not their fault. Only the moves that each team did (or didn't) make are being considered. Initially I was going to make this your standard winners/losers column, but then I decided to expand it to all 30 teams. So if you find this boring, either scroll down to your favorite team or just click the "back" button on your browser. It's that easy.

Boston: Most people have been killing the Sox for not making a deal, with the archrival Yankees making arguably the biggest deal of the deadline. But I don't think it was really Boston's fault - there really was not a deal to be done. None of the big names (Tejada, Abreu, Soriano) would be a good fit in Boston. And any smaller names - either position players or relievers - would not really be an upgrade over anyone the Sox have right now. The only need the Sox had was a starter (unless you believe the David Wells experiment will work. And, by the way, if you actually do believe the David Wells experiment will work, you might want to make sure you haven't suffered any dehabilitating brain injuries recently). And there were no good starters on the market. They made a run at Wells' evil twin Kip (from the Pirates), but he went to the Rangers. And I'm not sure Kip Wells would have been an upgrade - a mediocre pitcher going from the NL to the AL isn't exactly a formula for success. They inquired about Chicago's starters, and reportedly offered Coco Crisp for Mark Buerhle. I like that thinking - the Sox have a huge hole in center field - but the White Sox turned them down. Boston could have traded away one or two of their young pitchers (Lester, Hansen, etc.) in desperation, but Epstein was wise to realize that he's better off staying put. Final Grade: B

New York: The Yankees got an upgrade at first base in Craig Wilson, one of the game's best OBP men in Bob Abreu, and a decent fifth starter in Corey Lidle. What did they give up? Shawn Chacon and a package of four mediocre prospects. How did they do it? Only Brian Cashman knows. With the addition of Abreu, the Yankee lineup will be filled, top-to-bottom with guys who take lots of pitches. Opposing pitchers will have their pitch counts in triple digits on a routine basis, and the Yankees will see a lot more middle relievers. And middle relievers are where they are for two reasons: They don't have the stuff to be a closer/setup man, and they don't have the stamina to be a 4/5 starter. Lidle is also a good pickup - he's certainly been better than the fifth starters so far for New York, and he'll eat up innings to help protect the overworked bullpen. I would have liked to see Cashman try to make a deal to get another warm body in the bullpen, but the Yankees still had the best deadline of anybody. Final Grade: A+

Toronto: The Blue Jays were very quiet after the Shea Hillenbrand deal. They made a very strong run at Julio Lugo, but ultimately wouldn't give up the top prospects that the D-Rays wanted. The Jays did nothing, and right now they are all but out of playoff contention. Final Grade: C-

Baltimore: Today there is some confusion as to whether the Angels actually offered Santana and Aybar for Tejada. But if that deal was on the table (along with the Houston deals involving Oswalt) and the O's didn't take it, they are big-time losers here. I don't know if dealing Tejada was the right move or not, but once they put him on the market, they should have jumped on either of those offers. They had a couple other moveable parts - Jeff Conine and LaTroy Hawkins among them - that they didn't move as well. They could have tried to rebuild this team around Erik Bedard and some of their other pitchers, but instead they will continue to be mediocre for the rest of the decade. Final Grade: C-

Tampa Bay: The D-Rays had the best infielder on the market in Julio Lugo. Unfortunately, it was a market where nobody needed an infielder. They ended up shipping him to Los Angeles (the NL version), and recieved highly touted prospect Joel Guzman as well as Sergio Pedroza. Guzman once was the Dodgers' top prospect, though some people have soured a bit on his talent. But this is still a good deal for the D-Rays. They also traded the perpetually expendable Aubrey Huff to the Astros earlier in the year. In return, they got their shortstop of the future (Ben Zobrist, who used to play for the Valleycats), as well as pitcer Mitch Talbot. Final Grade: B+

Detroit: The Tigers added Sean Casey, which is a decent addition. The Tigers needed a left-handed bat, and Casey will probably provide that for them. Casey is not a big bat by any stretch of the imagination, but the Tigers are seven games up on everybody else in baseball. So they probably didn't need to make any big moves. They gave up virtually nothing for Casey. Final Grade: B

Chicago: I still don't know why they haven't found anybody other than Brian Anderson (he of the .213 batting average) to play center field. That's why I thought the Coco Crisp deal was going to go down eventually - Boston needed a starter and the Sox have six of them. They could probably grab a reliever from the Pirates or Royals to replace Brandon McCarthy (who would be put in the rotation in place of whoever they dealt). Mike MacDougal was a great addition to the Sox bullpen as well. But this team didn't need any major parts - staying put may have been the right idea. Final Grade: B+

Minnesota: Some people are also killing the Twins for not doing whatever it takes to get Soriano. While the Twins could certainly have benefited from a big bat, I don't think it was a terrible move for the Twins to stay put. They've been fine for the last couple weeks, and that was with Torii Hunter on the DL. Hunter's coming back, and by all indications the Twins would have had to include AAA pitcher Matt Garza (along with other pitching prospects) for a two-month rental of Soriano. I'm not sure if Garza is as highly rated as Liriano was, but let's say Liriano matured a couple months later than expected and he was on the verge of becoming a big-leaguer right now. What would happen if Liriano was traded for a two-month rental of Soriano, when he may not be the difference to get into the postseason anyways? Young pitching prospects are the most valued commodity in baseball these days, and giving up Garza may have been a huge mistake. The Twins thought the Nats would blink first and accept a lesser package; but that just didn't happen. They also got rid of Kyle Lohse (to the Reds), who was really serving them no purpose right now. Final Grade: B-

Cleveland: I think that Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro must be a hypnotist. First he convinces Seattle to trade for not one but two first baseman in the span of a month (Eduardo Perez, Ben Broussard), and recieved a couple decent prospects in return. Then he somehow manages Walt Jocketty (one of the game's best GMs) to trade Hector Luna for someone who has the same exact offensive stats, is a worse defender, is a free agent at the end of the year, and is five years older - Ronnie Belliard. The Indians are going to be a great team for the next few years. They didn't deal Aaron Boone, but they got rid of all their other expendable pieces (Bob Wickman), and got even more young players for the future. Final Grade: A

Kansas City: There may be hope in western Missouri. Although the division is going to be stacked for the next few years, it looks like the Royals will get back on track soon. They traded away a lot of their pieces - Matt Stairs, Jeremy Affedelt, Elmer Dessens, Tony Graffanino, and Mike MacDougal - and got quite a few pieces who will help them down the road. Their deal for Colorado 1B Ryan Shealy was a steal, as they didn't really give up anything. Shealy will start and be productive at first, and from what I hear they made off with quite a few good minor leaguers as well. Allen Baird may have this team back on the rise. Final Grade: A

Oakland: The A's did nothing, but I really don't know what they were expected to do. They kept Barry Zito. They didn't get another bat. They didn't do anything, but if they get healthy, they still are probably the favorite to win that division. Final Grade: B-

~~Anaheim~~ LA: Everybody is killing the Angels as well today, and they are justified for the most part. They really needed another bat in that lineup, and Soriano and Tejada never went anywhere. But I don't think this is completely the Angels' fault. They offered 125 cents on the dollar for Tejada, but were rejected anyways. Washington wanted pitching prospects for Soriano, and the Angels don't really have those. But I'm kind of surprised they didn't land a smaller bat - a Sean Casey/Craig Wilson type. They are playing Howie Kendrick full-time at first base now, and while he's on fire right now, we don't know how long that will last. And I still don't know why they didn't shop Adam Kennedy harder - Kendrick came up in the system as a second baseman, and he has a much brighter future than Kennedy. Final Grade: C

Texas: The Rangers picked up the biggest bat that eventually moved, in Carlos Lee. But right now, this team still looks like they will finish third in the division. Most people say that the Rangers are the best team on paper, but they're not playing like it. And their pitching is atrocious. Kip Wells is not the answer. The Lee deal was great - Fransisco Cordero was the only real player of value they gave up in the deal; the others were expendable for the Rangers. But something had to be done to address their rotation issues, and they didn't do it. Final Grade: B-

Seattle: The only deals the Mariners made were the aforementioned first basemen (plural) acquired from the Indians. The funniest part was that the chip they gave up for Broussard - outfielder Shin-Soo Choo - hit a homer within the next couple days to beat the Mariners, 1-0. I don't think the M's ever knew if they were buyers or sellers, and that eventually cost them. They were in talks with a number of teams, but nothing ever panned out. Final Grade: C-

NY Mets: The Mets lost a reliever through no fault of their own when reliever Duaner Sanchez was involved in a car accident some 16 hours before the deadline, and will miss the rest of the season. The Mets were forced to rush into a deal, but they still made out okay. They acquired reliever Roberto Hernandez and starter Oliver Perez from the Pirates, and gave up outfielder Xavier Nady. Perez was a phenom pitcher in 2004, but mysteriously lost his stuff last year and hasn't been the same since. (Yet another reason why young pitchers are such a risky investment. In fact, I'll spin this off into its own column some point this month.) But if Perez can somehow find his stuff, this will be a great deal for the Mets. They had a need and filled it in the bullpen, but I still think they should have found a starter. Zito and Jason Schmidt were both on the block, but Minaya didn't feel like giving up his top prospect Lastings Milledge for a rental. Maybe having Milledge for the next five or six years will eventually be more valuable, but I wouldn't want to be Minaya when Steve Traschel is starting Game 7 of the NLCS against the Cardinals. Final Grade: B-

Philadelphia: The Phillies wanted to clean house, but it looks like the flyers for the garage sale never got out. What they should have done was unloaded all their high-priced veterans - this would include Jon Lieber and Pat Burell - and taken whatever they could get for them. The free agent market is fairly thin next year for pitching, but Philly would have a ton of free payroll to throw at everyone. Dealing Abreu does help that some, but they could have done better. And the paltry package they recieved for Abreu was inescapable - it comes off looking bad, but that was the best they could do without eating some of Abreu's salary. And that was the whole point of the deal - to get rid of payroll. Final Grade: C

Florida: The Marlins didn't need to make any deals, they didn't want to make any deals, and they didn't make any deals. There's really no other way to spin it - there was nothing at all to be done. Final Grade: ???

Atlanta: The Braves made some great moves to improve their bullpen - they acquired Bob Wickman from the Indians for a good prospect, and they got Danys Baez from LA in exchange for ultra-utilityman Wilson Betemit. Unfortunately, the Braves have all but fallen out of the race. In retrospect, they probably would have been better off keeping Betemit and Max Ramirez, and waited until next year. They probably should have been more aggressive sellers near the deadline, though I'm not really sure who they would have sold. I'm not talking about an Andrew Jones deal here, but maybe they could have recieved something for some of their relievers. Final Grade: C

Washington: The deal with the Reds was great - it turned out to be not such a bad deal for Cincy, but the Nationals got two great young players (Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns) for a couple relievers and a mediocre shortstop. But, unfortunately, they ended up not being able to deal the best player on the market in Alfonso Soriano. They kept waiting for an A+ package to come their way, and in the end decided to keep Soriano rather than accept an A or A- package in return. I believe that will come back to haunt them. They now will obviously decide to try to re-sign Soriano, but he'll probably ask for 5 years, $75 million, or maybe 6/$90 mill. They would have to grossly overpay to keep him, but it might be the only way to save face at this point. But Soriano will not put them in contention - they have one of the worst farm systems in baseball (especially at the high levels), and that division won't get any easier. The Mets have the best young left side of the infield in baseball (Reyes and Wright), Philly has the best young right side of the infield (Chase Utley and Ryan Howard), the Marlins have the best young pitching staff in the National League, and the Braves are always good. Final Grade: C (and only because of the Reds deal)

St. Louis: The Cardinals are a very flawed team, but they may still end up in the World Series. They could have used a starter, but none were avaliable. The more pressing need was a corner outfielder, but for some reason they never found a deal. Shawn Green seems like the best fit, and that deal still could get done in August (provided Green waives his no-trade contract), but Walt Jocketty did not fare very well this year. They picked up Jorge Sosa from the Braves - an average reliever, but nothing special. The other trade they made was a puzzling one - they sent Hector Luna to Cleveland for Ronnie Belliard. Both players have the same offensive stats, except Luna is the better fielder and is five years younger. Final Grade: D

Cincy: The Reds entered July with the worst bullpen of all the NL contenders, and they leave July with arguably the best bullpen. They did have to overpay for the Washington relievers, but they also picked up Eddie Guardado for basically nothing. And who knows, maybe Kyle Lohse will actually be a servicable starter in the NL. It's hard to argue with the deals - the Reds are now a game up on Arizona and four clear of the rest of the field in the wild-card race. Final Grade: A-

Milwaukee: The Brewers went back and forth on whether they were buyers or sellers, but eventually made the right decision in trading Carlos Lee. They got back a nice mix of players who can help them next year, but seeing the packages Tejada was offered, and hearing the rumors of large packages for Soriano, you wonder if the Brewers couldn't have gotten more for Lee. The deal with Texas happened very quickly - some teams reportedly didn't even know he was on the market by the time he was on his way to Arlington. Final Grade: B

Houston: What were the Astros doing? Were they buying or were they selling? The acquisition of Aubrey Huff was a good one in July, though they paid a decent price for him. Then they were involved in all kinds of rumors - for Tejada and Soriano as buyers, or to trade Oswalt or Clemens as sellers. And yes, contrary to my belief, Clemens was almost traded yesterday. But the Astros struck me as confused yesterday, and that's not a good sign. Despite (or is it because of?) my midseason prediction, it looks like the Astros are just about dead in the playoff hunt. Final Grade: D

Chicago: The Cubs traded away a 300-game winner, and recieved...Cesar Izturis? Izturis is an exceptional fielder, but he has no pop at the plate, something the Cubbies are sorely lacking right now. They traded Todd Walker to San Diego, recieving only 19-year-old Jose Ceda. And they dealt away Scott Williamson - also to the Padres - and recieved two other very young arms, Fabian Jimenez and Joel Santo. None of the three prospects has a particularly high ceiling. But, to be fair, none of the traded players had much value either. Final Grade: D+

Pittsburgh: You look at what teams like the Royals and Indians did with their prospects, and one would figure that the Pirates could do the same thing, right? They had almost all of the most sought-after bullpen arms on the market. They were initially asking for the world for all their players, but their demands eventually lessened as time went on. Think Dave Littlefield wants to rethink that strategy? They started with Craig Wilson and Sean Casey, Kip Wells, Roberto Hernandez (the best reliever on the market), and Oliver Perez (who set the baseball world on fire in '04, only to completely lose his stuff). What did they end up with? Shawn Chacon (the Pirates would be better off sending Willie Stargell to the mound every fifth day), Brian Rodgers (projected as a middle reliever), Xavier Nady (an average outfielder), and Jesse Chavez (a low-level prospect). Final Grade: F

San Diego: The Padres entered the deadline with a huge hole at third base, and leave the deadline with a pretty big hole at third. They picked up Todd Walker from the Cubs, but Walker has played second for most of his career, and is nothing special as a hitter. They may try to make a deal for Aaron Boone in August, though I don't know if he's a big upgrade either. The Pads also picked up Scott Williamson from the Cubs for a bag of peanuts, which freed them up to trade Scott Linebrink in a myriad of deals that never quite got done. Final Grade: C+

Arizona: The D-Backs were quiet around the deadline. Shawn Green was really their only tradeable commodity, and his salary and declining skills meant that they would get virtually nothing in return. They were never going to deal Miguel Batista or Juan Cruz, and they happen to only be a game out of both the division and wild card races. I don't know if they have the horses to stay in contention this year, but they have the young talent to compete in '07 and beyond. Final Grade: ???

Colorado: I'm very surprised they weren't able to get more for Ryan Shealy - up to 10 teams were interested at one point or another, but in the end they were only able to get a couple subpar relievers from the Royals. But the Rockies probably needed more relief help and another starter if they were to make a run this year, and they didn't do that. Final Grade: C-

San Fransisco: The Giants picked up Mike Stanton from the Nationals in an attempt to bolster their bullpen, but they then apparently decided they were sellers on the day of the deadline. Had they decided they wanted to move Jason Schmidt over the weekend, they might have been able to strike a deal with the Mets, White Sox, or another team, but they waited until Monday to decide, and by then it was too late. Other than that, there wasn't much for the Giants to do. They could have shopped Ray Durham as well, but very few teams were in need of middle infielders. Final Grade: C

Los Angeles: The Dodgers were probably the biggest winner in the NL. They are currently at the bottom of the division right now, but with the deals they made, they may actually be the favorite to come out of the NL West. They picked up Greg Maddux, who is not the Maddux of old but still may be servicable in a playoff run, and gave up virtually nothing. They acquired Wilson Betemit, probably the most sought-after utility player ever, and all it cost them was a reliever (Danys Baez). And they picked up one of the most underrated players in baseball in Juilo Lugo, for just a couple of prospects. The Dodgers right now probably have the best team in the West (especially when Nomar and Kent get back from injuries), but the question is whether or not they will play like it. And I wonder if their bullpen is still good enough, with the loss of Baez. Final Grade: A

Final Day

2006-07-31T11:37:00.000-04:00

Today, as I'm sure you know by now, is the final day trades can be made without players clearing waivers. And yes, I'm going to write about possible trades again. If you don't like it, well, it's not like it costs you anything to read this, so you really have no right to complain, you greedy pig. And I have a lot of fun following this stuff. Tomorrow...well, I'll probably post a review of the deadline winners and losers. But after that I'm done, I promise.

First, if you're at all interested in the trade deadline, make sure you check out ESPN's SportsNation chat from 12-5 this afternoon - it should have the latest news from all the experts on potential and actual trades. I'm not going to keep up on everything through the afternoon - if you want that, follow the chat and mlbtraderumors.com.

The Tigers acquired Sean Casey from the Pirates for a minor league pitcher.

The Reds got Rheal Cormier from the Phillies to help their bullpen, also giving up a minor league pitcher.

Where will the big names land? Miguel Tejada seems to be staying in Baltimore. Apparently the Astros made a run at him, but two trades were denied. The first: Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, and stud pitcher Roy Oswalt for Tejada. The second? Oswalt, All-Star outfielder Lance Berkman and closer Brad Lidge for Tejada. And the Orioles turned them both down! Seriously, is this a joke? If I were the Orioles, I would have jumped on either of those deals as quickly as possible, and if I were the Astros and the Baltimore front office called proposing either deal (especially the second), I would have permanently blocked the Orioles' phone number. That's how ridiculous both deals sound. But the Baltimore front office found a way to turn down both offers, and I can't see anybody beating either of those deals.

According to some sources, the Soriano hunt is down to two teams, the Angels and Astros, though I personally won't count the Twins out either. But there are some new players on the horizon. The first is the Red Sox, who have inquired about Soriano as a counter-strike to the Yankees' Abreu deal. It's pretty likely that nothing will happen on this front. But when Theo Epstein is among the voices talking, there's always a chance that something will get done. The second franchise that has popped onto the scene is the Florida Marlins. Most people are wondering why the Fish would go after Soriano, as they are looking towards next year as contenders, not this year. But Jayson Stark has a different take on things: The Fish have a ton of young pitching prospects, which is what the Nationals are looking for. But most of the teams in the hunt (particularly the Angels) are more loaded with position players in their farm system. So this could turn out to be essentially a three-team trade - the Nationals deal Soriano to Florida for pitchers, and the Fish then spin him off to Los Anaheim for some of their position players.

The third big name who has jumped on the market comes from San Fransisco. And no, he hasn't been indicted for steroid use. But the second-biggest name from the Giants is Jason Schmidt, and he may be on the move. The Giants have lost their last six, and they're looking to get something from Schmidt, who's in his walk year. The Mets are the biggest player, though if they won't trade Lastings Milledge for Zito, they probably won't trade him for Schmidt either. And the Giants are looking for a good package in return. So don't be shocked if this deal doesnt' happen, but there are some other potential suitors out there as well - the White Sox, Rangers, and Red Sox may be interested.

There's only one 300-game winner on the market, but it's still only the Padres and Dodgers who are interested in acquiring Greg Maddux. The Dodgers have been hotter on his tail, but if the Padres trade a pitcher to fill their gaping hole at third, they may try to get Maddux to fill that pitcher's place. Right now it's almost 50-50, and that's if he gets traded (also not a guarantee).

The Yankees don't have anything major up their sleeve. One source said that Pirates RP Roberto Hernandez is all but guaranteed to become a Yankee. But I didn't see anything else about him; other rumors have the Pirates packaging reliever Salamon Torres and 1B Craig Wilson to the Big Apple.

The Red Sox right now are trying to complete one of two three-team deals, both of which would involve the Padres and Mike Lowell. The first would send Lowell to the Pads, San Diego setup man Scott Linebrink and Tampa Bay shortstop Julio Lugo to Boston, and presumably prospects from both teams to Tampa. The second deal would also send Lowell to San Diego, and Colorado first baseman Ryan Shealy would come to Boston along with a pitcher from one of the teams. I don't know what the Rockies would recieve from this deal. Either of these deals would be very good for the Sox, in my mind. The Padres desperately need a third baseman - if these deals both fall through, they will likely go after Cleveland's Aaron Boone (he will probably cost them Linebrink). Although Morgan Ensberg, who has been the Padres' number one choice all along, may be back on the market in Houston.

Here's a funny article: Dontrelle Willis might go to the Cardinals. What's so funny? The Marlins put both Willis and Miguel Cabrera on waivers late last week. The waiver thing is complicated, but the one important effect in this case is that players cannot be traded until their waivers expire. The waivers on both Willis and Cabrera conveniently expire just after the 4 pm deadline. So it's literally impossible for Willis to be leaving Miami.

Arguably the hottest name on the market right now is the Rockies' Ryan Shealy. Shealy is a young first baseman who would already be playing every day in the big leagues except that he has to be behind Todd Helton in the Colorado system. One might wonder why they don't try to move Helton instead, but he has an enormous contract and has been loyal to the Rockie franchise for many years. Shealy has been mentioned in big talks with the Red Sox (see above), and is also eyed by rebuilding teams such as Kansas City or Pittsburgh (who would each presumably give back a reliever in return).

The Rangers need a starter, and they apparently have interest in the Phillies' Jon Lieber. Their main trading chip is Brad Wilkerson, who they have also tried pairing with catcher Rod Barajas to make a deal. But nothing looks imminent on the Arlington front.

Update from Jayson Stark: The A's are now in the running for Soriano. Kinda strange b/c he's not the typical "Moneyball" guy (high OBP), but I don't know how close those talks are.

Done Deals

2006-07-30T20:45:00.000-04:00

A couple of deals came across the wire today...

First and foremost, the Yankees acquired Bobby Abreu from the Phillies along with pitcher Corey Lidle; they gave up a package of four minor-leaguers: C.J. Henry, Matt Smith, Jesus Sanchez, and Carlos Monasterios.

This was obviously a great deal for the Yankees - Abreu is a great player, even though his power has declined of late, and Lidle is possibly the best starter on the market (other than Zito). Taking on Abreu's contract would be a big hurdle for most teams, but not the Yankees. Lidle for his part has a very affordable contract. The more interesting subplot of the deal is what it means for Gary Sheffield - when Sheffield comes back in September, he will now most likely DH. And the money that would have gone towards re-signing Sheffield in the offseason is now tied up in Abreu's contract, so it's unlikely he's in pinstripes in 2007.

For the Phillies, this was mostly a salary dump. I believe that, of the four prospects they recieved in return, only Henry is considered to have big-league talent, and he's still a ways away from reaching the pros (he was the Yankees' first-round pick in last year's draft; he's currently playing in single A). But the money that would have been spent on Abreu next year can now be spent on acquiring some pitching during the offseason, and the Phils have some good pieces to build around for the next 6-7 years in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Another deal - the Cardinals and Indians swapped second baseman; Hector Luna goes to Cleveland while Ronnie Belliard heads south. I'm not sure exactly what Walt Jocketty was thinking here - the two have virtually identical batting averages and slugging percentages, Luna is considered the better fielder, and Belliard is five years older than Luna. But maybe he knows something I don't.

More trade news:

There are only four teams left in the hunt for Alfonso Soriano - the Astros, Twins, Angels, and Dodgers. And the Dodgers seem to be almost out of the running at this point. Jim Bowden is asking for a major-league ready pitcher at this point (along with a couple other decent prospects), and so far nobody has stepped up to the plate yet. But Soriano will be traded - the Nats don't want to let him walk without getting all they can get for him. So this essentially becomes a game of chicken - which team will give up their top pitching prospect first? Or will the Nationals have to go after something else instead? As of right now, nobody knows.

Meanwhile, the Miguel Tejada sweepstakes is just as interesting. There were four teams in the Tejada hunt as well - the Astros, Angels, Dodgers, and Rangers - but it appears now that just the Texas teams are left. The Dodgers reportedly made an offer that was turned down, and they've lost interest. The Angels offered Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar - an offer the O's should have jumped on - but were turned down by the erratic Peter Angelos. Another interesting development came out this morning when Tejada said he didn't want to play third - I believe all the potential trade partners have him pegged as a 3B. Tejada does not have a no-trade clause, so he doesn't have much say in things, though. But my gut feeling is that Angelos will not find a deal to his liking, Tejada will remain an Oriole, and Baltimore will continue to finish at the bottom of the AL East for the rest of the decade.

All Omar Minaya has to do is give up Lastings Milledge or Aaron Heilman, plus a lesser prospect, and the Mets have the best #3 starter in the playoffs - Barry Zito. But right now all indications are that Minaya is content with a Livan Hernandez or a Kip Wells. I think that Minaya will realize that, if they get to the playoffs and end up losing Game 7 of the NLCS with, say, Steve Traschel on the hill, he will get absolutely flamed to a crisp by the New York media. So, despite the fact that the odds are against it right now, I still think Zito ends up in the Big Apple. The White Sox have had some discussions about Zito as well, though I don't know how far those talks went. The D-Backs inquired on Zito, but didn't like what they saw.

The Red Sox have their eye on Julio Lugo, and are reportedly trying to make a big deal - similar to the one that sent away Nomar in July of 2004. They reportedly are willing to deal any of their position players except Manny or Youkilis (or Varitek), and they are looking particularly hard at Lugo and the White Sox starters (Buerhle, Garcia, etc). Theo Epstein loves to deal more than anybody, and right now they'd love to get a starter plus another fresh face in Boston. The young Sox pitchers - Hansen, Lester, Paplebon, - are not going anywhere, however.

Surprise surprise - Nomar is back on the DL! The Dodgers may get Greg Maddux, but right now it looks like they won't get anywhere near the postseason. Wait, who was the idiot who picked them to win the division again? Chipper Jones is out as well, making their trade of Wilson Betemit look kind of foolish (Betemit would have replaced Jones at third).

Coming tomorrow: I have no idea. Sorry to get your hopes up.

Odds and Ends

2006-07-29T17:16:00.000-04:00

My fingers are still recouping from yesterday's post, so I'll keep things short today. Just some odds and ends to cover around the world of sports.

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Trade Rumors:

A few deals went down after my post went to press yesterady. The Brewers acquired Philly 3B David Bell for a pack of peanuts, the Giants acquired 70-year-old Mike Stanton from the Nationals (though they apparently gave up a pretty good prospect in return), and the Braves finally dealt utilityman Wilson Betemit, getting Danys Baez back from the Dodgers. Baez is a solid, not spectacluar reliever, and the Dodgers will play Betemit at third (possibly making Cesar Izturis trade bait).

Miguel Tejada is apparently on the market and he has many suitors lining up. The Angels reportedly offered two great young players - young starter Ervin Santana and AAA shortstop Erick Aybar - and everyone I've heard is saying the O's should jump on this deal. Peter Angelos is more likely to wait and accumulate offers, however, and the Dodgers, Astros, and Rangers all have interest. It would be amazing if the Rangers could add another impact bat before the deadline, but you still won't make the playoffs if you give up 15 runs per game. With the pitching depth in that division, I don't think the Rangers would be assured of a playoff spot, even if they did get Tejada. And you never know what Peter Angelos will do - he could easily pull Tejada off the market, because nobody knows what Angelos is thinking and nobody ever will. They need to rebuild that team around some young pitchers and let Leo Mazzone do his thing - they could probably do that with Tejada, but it might be better to move him.

Yesterday I mentioned that five teams were interested in Maddux, but today it looks like there's just two - the Padres and Dodgers. What seems most likely at this point is that Maddux stays in Beantown; the Pads have a good staff already and the Dodgers need more help than Maddux can provide.

The Phillies are trying a number of strategies to move Abreu, including packaging him with either Jon Lieber or Corey Lidle. The only interested team right now seems to be the Yankees, and from what I've heard they've backed off their demand of Philip Hughes or Jose Tabata. All signs are pointing to Abreu in pinstripes by August.

Apparently Coco Crisp and Trot Nixon are on the market, though I doubt Crisp will be dealt unless the Sox recieve a great offer. Mark Loretta also might be avaliable, as the Sox have young second baseman Dustin Pedroia waiting in the wings.

The Angels need a first baseman, and reports say they've narrowed their search to Sean Casey or Jeff Conine.

Kip Wells helped his stock last night with a 7 IP, 0 ER performance, and may be leaving Pittsburgh by Monday.

The Blue Jays apparently have lost interest in Julio Lugo, and are looking to add a starter - most likely Lidle, Lieber, or Rodrigo Lopez.

The Twins are still talking about Soriano, but are hesitant to deal top pitching prospect Matt Garza, who may be in the big leagues any day now. They still could get a deal done, although Torii Hunter is expected back in the lineup on Monday, which should help their offense out. The Astros like Soriano as well, but don't want to give up either of their top prospects - Jason Hirsh or Hunter Pence.

All Omar Minaya has to do is say the magic words ("Lastings Milledge", or possibly even "Aaron Heilman"), and Barry Zito will be on the next train to Beantown. But right now Minaya isn't biting, and instead is focusing on lesser options such as Livan Hernandez, Jon Lieber, or Kip Wells.

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The MLB Induction ceremony is tomorrow in Cooperstown, and Tim Kurkjian has the must-read on how lone inductee Bruce Sutter changed the art of pitching.

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According to coolstandings.com (third time in four posts I've linked to this - I'm on a roll!), the chances of my midseason division and wildcard predictions coming true is roughly one in 4.6 million - about the same likelyhood as a pregnant woman having identical quadruplets. So, if we've learned one thing, it's this: When in doubt, take my advice and go the other way.

More Trade Rumors

2006-07-28T15:01:00.000-04:00

I know, I know, I promised this entry would be on Thursday. But I got my wisdom teeth pulled yesterday, and I was so full of gas/novocain/blood/pain that my writing would have looked like the ramblings of a drunk monkey banging on a keyboard. That's in comparison to my normal entries, which look like the ramblings of a sober monkey banging on a keyboard. Anyways, here are all the latest rumors from around the world of baseball (these date back as far as Sunday, though I've tried to tell you which ones are most recent. And as always, there is no "inside" info, just stuff you learn when you spend your entire day surfing the web.)

First I'll mention that a blockbuster trade was made earlier this morning, as the Brewers sent All-Star OF Carlos Lee (along with OF Nelson Cruz) to the Rangers in exchange for outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix, reliever Fransisco Cordero, and another prospect. More analysis coming up within this post.

Sources: ESPN.com, mlbtraderumors.com, prosportsdaily.com, SI.com, and cbs.sportsline.com

American League:

Boston - Wily Mo Pena seems to be the big trading chip for the Sox right now. The Indians could be a good fit for Pena, as they will need a power-hitting outfielder if they are to make a run next year. The Tribe also have pitching to give back, though they've been reluctant to part with either Jake Westbrook or Paul Byrd. The Sox have also had interest in Jon Lieber, though I'm not sure he would be a good fit in that park. With the way Corey Lidle pitched last night (8 IP, 0 ER), you have to wonder if the Sox could make a move for him over the next couple days. The Sox have also apparently been in talks for Scott Linebrink of the Padres - this is pure speculation on my part, but maybe there's something there about Linebrink for Mike Lowell? The Pads would have to add something else, I think, but that might happen. Again, I haven't heard any more than the Sox talking about Linebrink, but you've gotta wonder. Also, Buster Olney has said that Theo Epstein is working on a large, multi-team deal - much like the one that sent away Nomar and brought back a World Series ring in 2004. No details on who that would involve, but things will certainly get interesting this weekend.

Yankees - One rumor had the Yanks trading Scott Proctor for Wilson Betemit of the Braves, though I'm not sure why the Yanks would consider that deal - they already have a super-utilityman in Miguel Cairo. Buster Olney mentioned that possibly the Yanks would then send Betemit to the Padres for Scott Linebrink. That all seems moot now that Proctor has become untouchable, thanks to his prowess out of the bullpen recently. The Yankees still need another decent reliever besides Proctor and Rivera, though, and the Pirates have most of the relievers best on the market. Eventually the Pirates' demands will come down, and the Yanks will most likely make a deal for one of them. Another option is the Orioles' LaTroy Hawkins. They're still in the market for a starter - I've heard Kyle Lohse, Miguel Batista, Rodrigo Lopez, Corey Lidle, and Jon Lieber - but a reliever should be their top priority. Also, right now all indications seem to be that if the Phillies will accept a package that does not include top prospect Phillip Hughes, Bobby Abreu will end up in pinstripes by the deadline. If they don't get Abreu, they might ask the Brewers about Kevin Mench - the Rangers had no interest in trading Mench to NY, but the Brewers might have a different view.

Toronto - The Jays have the most interest in Tampa infielder Julio Lugo, but were unwilling to give up two young pitchers, per the D-Rays' demands. They will likely wait until the end of the week, and hope the price comes down by then. Recently acquired reliever Jeremy Accardo has generated a lot of interest, but I doubt the Jays will trade him. Toronto had a lot of interest in Corey Lidle, and that was before Lidle's stellar start last night.

Baltimore - Miguel Tejada is apparently back on the block for the umpteenth time this month. The two most interested teams are the Angels and Astros; however, neither team wants to give up the package of three solid players that the O's are looking for. If Tejada is not dealt before the deadline, look for more talk this winter on where Tejada will go. Another interesting player on the Orioles' roster is Jeff Conine. Conine was dealt from the Orioles to the Marlins in 2003 - you'll remember what happened to the Fish after that. Conine is the sort of role player and clubhouse good guy that many GMs like to target, and right now the most likely landing spots appear to be the Braves, Cardinals, Reds, or Mariners. Reliever LaTroy Hawkins has also generated a lot of interest from teams needing relief help (including the Yankees).

Tampa - The trading chip for Tampa right now is infielder Julio Lugo. Lugo is a free agent at the end of the year, and the D-Rays would like to sign him to an extension before the deadline. However, Lugo is supposedly looking for a contract in the 4-yr, $36-40 million range, and it's unlikely that Tampa will be able to afford that. So they're looking to trade Lugo, and the most interested teams seem to be the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Mets. The D-Rays were asking for an unreasonable package - two top prospects - earlier in the week, but that may come down by the end of the week.

Detroit - The Tigers remain interested in both Soriano and Tejada, but the asking price for both is a little high right now. The other problem is that both their top pitching prospects, Humberto Sanchez and Jair Jurriens, have had minor injuries over the past week. The injuries are not severe by any means, but other teams could be a little wary of dealing for either one. However, despite the injury, Sanchez is arguably the best prospect avaliable for sellers to get. One source says that the Tigers would move Sanchez in a Soriano deal, and it doesn't look like anybody could top that offer. I also heard Tuesday that the O's asked for Verlander or Bonderman (scroll down) to head a package for Tejada, a ludicrous notion. But another option for the Tigers is a lesser name - David Dellucci. I'm hearing that Dellucci could easily become a Tiger by Monday, and it won't take as much to get him - possibly second-tier pitching prospect Jordan Tata.

ChiSox - Those Soriano rumors we all heard so much about before seem to be dead, as the Sox will not trade either Brandon McCarthy or AAA 3B Josh Fields. It is looking more and more like the Sox will stand pat at the deadline and try to figure out what went wrong with their pitchers in July, but never count out Sox GM Kenny Williams. Buster Olney mentioned yesterday in his blog that the ChiSox are now listening to offers for Freddy Garcia, and they might look to add another reliever before the deadline.

Minnesota - The Twins were considered a frontrunner in the Carlos Lee sweepstakes, but they lost out to the Rangers on him. Lee would have been a great fit in Minnesota - a RH power bat between Mauer and Morneau - but now the Twins have to look elsewhere, possibly to Alfonso Soriano. Minnesota has arguably more prospects than anybody else in baseball, so they are right now apparently the frontrunners in the Soriano Sweepstakes. Pitcher Kyle Lohse has garnered a lot of interest, but with the Twins squarely in the pennant chase and the back of their rotation in shambles, they will probably need to keep him. The Twins were scheduled to call up top pitching prospect Matt Garza to try to catch lightening in a bottle like they did with Liriano, but they cancelled that yesterday.

Cleveland - Cleveland has two of the best starters on the market in Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd, but they most likely will not trade either unless they are blown away by an offer. Aaron Boone is also on the block, and the Indians are probably hoping the Braves decide to keep Wilson Betemit; this would force the Padres to look to somewhere else and possibly overpay for a 3B, even the mediocre Boone. In other news, it looks like the Broussard trade will open up a spot for Victor Martinez at first base - he's been terrible behind the plate this year, and the Tribe want to move him to another position.

Kansas City - The Royals have made some good rebuilding moves so far this year to make themselves better down the road - unfortunately, a .500 team in the NL West would probably finish with 100 losses in the AL Central next year, as pretty much everybody except maybe Chicago will get better next year.

~~Anaheim~~ LA Angels - The Angels have been extremely interested in Tejada and Soriano from Day 1. But, at the current asking price, there's no way a deal will be done with the Angels. Right now the Nationals are asking for either Howie Kendrick or Brandon Wood (the Halos' top infield prospects), a pitcher from the group of Jered Weaver, John Lackey, and Ervin Santana (all of whom are crucial to LA's pennant run this year), and another prospect. The Angels are not dealing one of those pitchers, and are reluctant to part with their infielders as well. It seems the Halos will focus more on Tejada - the price might actually be cheaper (probably one of the IFs, a second-tier pitcher like Scot Shields, and probably another prospect), and he's under contract for the next three years. If the Angels do get Tejada, they will most likely move him to third base. The O's made an offer earlier - Tejada for Kendrick, Santana, and Shields - which was rejected, but that price may come down soon. The Angels have also looked at smaller-name bats such as the Rockies' Ryan Shealy or the Pirates' Sean Casey or Craig Wilson to fill the hole at first (left when Dallas McPherson injured his back). If the Halos persue a third baseman (other than Tejada), it would likely be Aramis Ramirez or Chad Tracy. The Angels reportedly offered Kendry Morales for Ramirez, but were turned down by the Cubs.

Oakland - Oakland could have interest in the Pirates' Sean Casey, who was expected to go to the Giants until they acquired Hillenbrand. Billy Beane also still has apparently put Zito back on the block, and is trying hard to trade him. Steve Phillips was adamant yesterday on ESPNRadio that Zito would not be traded, but all the news since then has been contrary to that. If traded, he will almost certainly go to the Mets (though it's still possible he ends up with the White Sox, albeit very unilkely). We still don't know what the asking price for Zito is, nor do we know if the Mets are interested in giving up any of their top young players. But right now it seems like the A's are doing all they can to try to find Zito a new home.

Texas - I've heard from more than a few sources that the Rangers would be very interested in Jake Westbrook of the Indians. However, it doesn't seem like Westbrook will be moved unless the Indians get an offer they can't refuse. The Rangers should also be hunting around the other starters (i.e. Lidle, Rodrigo Lopez, Lieber, Redman, etc.), because their pitching right now is terrible. They have easily the best offense in the division with the addition of Lee (especially if Mark Teixeira ever remembers who he is), but that may not be enough.

Seattle - The M's traded for Cleveland first baseman Ben Broussard yesterday, though many people believe they overpaid in giving up highly touted outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. The M's are on the verge of being in contention, but I don't think it's likely that Seattle makes a run (especially with the Rangers adding Lee).

National League:

NY Mets - The Mets need another starter, but the market is awfully thin. They've talked about Livan Hernandez and Tony Armas Jr of the Nationals, but neither deal looks close to happening. They've inquired about Pittsburgh starter Kip Wells, but the Pirates won't give up anybody for less than the net worth of Bill Gates right now. They've talked about Jon Leiber, but I doubt the Phillies want to trade him or Corey Lidle within the division. They made a run for disappointing Pittsburgh starter Oliver Perez. There was apparently a rumor that they were working on an Aaron Heilman-for-Gil Meche deal, but that wasn't true. They looked at Miguel Batista and Juan Cruz of the D-Backs, but neither of them are going anywhere. Yesterday reports surfaced that they checked out Jason Jennings, B-H Kim and Ray King in Colorado (though King's a reliever). Omar Minaya has been careful not to mention it publicly, but it seems now that Barry Zito is very gettable. Reports differ on what it will take to get Zito. Some people are saying that it will take both young OF Lastings Milledge and Heilman to get Zito, which might be a bit steep for a three-month rental. But other reports (including Buster Olney just minutes ago on SportsCenter) say that just Milledge (and maybe a lesser prospect) might get the deal done, which would be a much more attractive option for the Mets. My prediction - Zito ends up in the Big Apple, with only Milledge going west.

Atlanta - Utilityman Wilson Betemit is suddenly one of the hottest commodities in baseball right now. A likely deal involves sending Betemit to the Padres for some desperately needed relief help, probably Scott Linebrink. Rumors had the Braves shipping Betemit to the Big Apple for the Yankees' Scott Proctor, but that seems unlikely now that Chacon appears to be pitching well. The Yankees might pull the trigger on that deal if they get a Pittsburgh reliever, but I don't see it. It's possible that the Braves keep Betemit, especially with Chipper Jones apparently hurting. If the Braves don't get Linebrink, they may try to deal for Ray King - even with last week's Wickman deal, they still have the worst bullpen of any contender.

Philly - If the Phillies decide to accept anything less than top prospect Phil Hughes from the Yankees, I believe a deal will get done to send Abreu to the Big Apple. But I could just as easily forsee Abreu staying put. The one catch with dealing Abreu is that it can't be made right at the deadline - because Abreu wants his new team to pick up his option for 2008, they would need time to negotiate that contract before getting a deal done. So if nothing has happened by Monday morning, it's likely nothing will happen on the Abreu front. The hotter outfielder right now from Philly is David Dellucci, who has a lot of talent but is right now riding the bench often (behind Abreu and Pat Burrell). Dellucci will likely get dealt before Tuesday, and right now I'm hearing Detroit as the best fit for him. I don't think it will take much to get him either. Starters Jon Lieber and Corey Lidle also could be on the move, maybe to the Yankees, Red Sox, or Twins. I've heard recently that the Jays are also very hot on Lidle. And Buster Olney said today that his prediction would be that Lidle ends up in Arlington, but that is far from a done deal. Tom Gordon was on the block at one point, but the Phillies most likely will not pull the trigger unless they get a closer for next year in return.

Florida - Dontrelle Willis WILL NOT BE TRADED. That's pretty much all that has to go here.

Washington - The Nationals got very lucky with how the Carlos Lee trade ended up. Had Lee been on the market until Monday, teams unwilling to pay the Nats' high price for Soriano could look at Lee instead. But Lee got traded right away, and to a team (Texas) that wasn't really interested in Soriano. So it's back to square one for teams that need a corner OF. Jayson Stark has reported that the frontrunner in the Soriano sweepstakes as of right now is the Twins. But there's been so much smokescreening going on this year, you have to wonder how long that will last. The Astros have been hot on Soriano as well, but nothing will get done on that front unless they relent and decide to move Jason Hirsh and/or Hunter Pence.

St Louis - The Cards are looking for a corner outfielder, but I haven't heard them involved in any big names. A more likely scenario is the Redbirds dealing for a second-tier bat, such as David Dellucci, Luis Gonzalez, or Shawn Green. They were very interested in Carlos Lee, but that ship has sailed.

Cincy - The Reds are surprisingly 4.5 games up in the wild card right now. They may look to add another reliever, but things seem to be pretty quiet on the Cincy front.

Houston - The Astros are very interested in Miguel Tejada, but not at the current price. The package needed to pry Tejada from the O's right now would likely involve SS Adam Everett, pitching prospect Fernando Nieve, and top outfield prospect Hunter Pence. And the Stros right now have no desire whatsoever to give up that much talent for a shortstop whose skills are declining, at least in the field. They countered this afternoon with Everett, Morgan Ensberg, and Nieve; I don't know how interested the O's are in that offer. Today, reports surfaced that the Astros have gone into "full pursuit" of Soriano (see sidebar), though I'm not sure exactly what that means. Getting Soriano would most likely mean giving up a package including top pitching prospect Jason Hirsh, though Keith Law said today that he did not see Hirsh as more than a fourth starter in the big leagues. Houston reportedly had interest in Pirates RP Damaso Marte, but the Pirates right now are apparently asking for a fairly large country in return for each of their relievers. So they're not close at all to getting that deal done. Even with the acquisition of Aubrey Huff, it seems pretty clear right now that Morgan Ensberg is not on the block. That is particularly bad news for the Padres, who desperately need a third baseman. There have been rumors that Brad Lidge could be traded, but I doubt that will happen, as the Astros are looking for bullpen help already. And, just in case you're starting to believe some of the talk-show fodder, there is a 0% chance Roger Clemens gets traded. None. Nada. Zilch.

Milwaukee - The Lee deal was a pretty fair deal for both teams - the Rangers get a big bat to make them the AL West favorites, and the Brewers get some players to help them next year - but don't dismiss the possibility of Mench getting dealt to another team if Milwaukee wants to open up space for Corey Hart. Or the Brewers could deal Hart as part of a bigger deal, though that seems less likely.

Cubbies - Once upon a time, it looked like a foregone conclusion that Greg Maddux would head to LA (Dodgers, not Angels). But those days are over, and now it looks like we have a bidding war for Maddux's services. One thing we do know is that Maddux will not go to the AL. But right now I'm hearing that the Dodgers, Brewers, Padres, Giants, and now the Mets are all interested in Maddux. And the value of adding a 300-game winner on your team may be enough to get someone to bid very high for Maddux. Everything I've heard says that the Cub most likely to be dealt is Todd Walker. But I haven't heard of anybody interested in Walker, except the Mariners (who likely aren't interested anymore after the Broussard deal) and maybe the Rangers.

Pittsburgh - The Pirates have a plethora of relievers that interest many contenders (especially the Yankees and Giants), but their asking price until now has been way too high. It seems less likely now that they trade Sean Casey - the Giants were the most interested team until they got Shea Hillenbrand - but I've been hearing that the A's and Angels are both interested.

San Diego - The Padres' dealt for Scott Williamson of the Cubs last week opened up a few options - they need a third baseman, so setup man Scott Linebrink is now potentially avaliable as trade bait. They have apparently talked to the Astros about including Linebrink in a deal for Morgan Ensberg, but it appears that Ensberg is not on the block. Plan B appears to be Atlanta's Wilson Betemit, and Atlanta needs another reliever as well. My prediction is that, sometime within the next few days, a deal gets done involving Linebrink and Betemit. If the Braves decide to pull Betemit off the block, the Pads could look for another third baseman - possibly Cleveland's Aaron Boone. Of course, the Pads could just keep their deep bullpen, which certainly is not a bad thing to have.

Arizona - The D-Backs will likely try to trade one of their old, overpaid corner outfielders - either Shawn Green or Luis Gonzalez. They would rather deal Green - who has garnered interest from the Cardinals, Yankees, and Mariners - but Green has a no-trade clause to all but three teams, and I don't know if he would waive it. They have recieved offers for Miguel Batista and Juan Cruz, but neither is likely to be traded, especially with the Snakes in contention. But I did hear that the Mets are interested in recently demoted closer Jose Valverde. I guess they think they can right Valverde, and it wouldn't take much to get him. I don't see any interest from anyone else, though the D-Backs might still consider him the closer of their future.

San Fransisco - The Giants are apparently looking at the Pittsburgh relievers - particularly Roberto Hernandez and Salomon Torres - and may make a deal if and when the price comes down.

Colorado - Those Ray King for Julian Tavarez rumors seem dead at this point, as the Rockies don't want to take on Tavarez's contract for next year. King for Rudy Seanez still could happen, though I haven't heard anything about it in the last few days (Tavarez and Seanez both pitch for Boston). The more recent interest in King has come from the Braves and Reds. But the name generating the most interest is young 1B Ryan Shealy, who's blocked by Todd Helton in Colorado but may be able to help another team. Among the interested suitors: The Angels, Red Sox, Pirates, Royals, Orioles, and Blue Jays.

LA Dodgers - My, how the Dodgers have fallen. At the All-Star break, they looked like the favorites to win the division (at least that's what I thought), but now they're seven games back and in last place. It looked like they were going to land Greg Maddux, but the Cubbies asked for young OF Andre Ethier in return, who has been the Dodgers' second-best hitter so far this year. The Dodgers still could land Maddux, but it's looking less likely by the day. The Dodgers did pick up some relief help in Elmer Dessens on Tuesday. Reliever Danys Baez may be on the market, but the Betemit-Baez rumors seem to be far from happening.

Hall of Links

2006-07-26T14:53:00.001-04:00

Today I'm unveiling my Hall of Links - a collection of cool spots around the Web that I like to visit. I'll add to this list as I find more ways to waste my time on the Internet. But there's a pretty solid group of inductees to get this started. So, without further ado: (all links pop up in a new window)

The Sports Guy on ESPN.Com - Bill Simmons is without a doubt the most enjoyable writer on the Internet. He combines sports knowledge with his funny writing style and great jokes to give you a great column. I've tried to pattern my writing style after his because he's such a great writer. If I were to designate a MVL (Most Valuable Link), this would be it. Not that I'm playing favorites or anything.

SportsNation - every weekday there are hourly chats with ESPN experts/personalities. The odds of getting a question in are slim, but you can often get lots of information on a lot of different topics from the chats.

SportsPickle.com - Essentially The Onion, but all about sports. DJ Gallo maintains it all by himself, and he also writes a weekly column on ESPN.Com's Page 2. Very funny stuff.

Coolstandings.com - I referenced this yesterday, but it's an amazingly cool site. It simulates 1,000,000 seasons from today to the end of the year - taking into account just about every variable imaginable - and gives you the percentage chance that each team wins the division or the wild card. Take their predictions with a grain of salt - as of May 8, the Twins had a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs - but it's still cool to look at.

Buster Olney's Blog on ESPN.Com - Olney's blog is officially a must-read every day (as this blog is, I hope!); he gives a ton of knowledge and lots of links in every post. One catch - you have to be an ESPN Insider to read it. If you aren't already and you have 40 bucks to blow, I highly reccomend becoming an Insider - you get the biweekly ESPN the Magazine (which isn't quite at Sports Illustrated's level, but it's still pretty good), archived ESPN content (including old SportsNation chats), and lots of other exclusive content. I already forgot how I ever survived withot it.

Syracuse.com forums - I discovered this last year, and was surprised to see that you can find good discussion about section 2 basketball and football on here. As I've mentioned before, the local media coverage of the high school sports is not very good, so it's nice to have another place to get opinions from. (Scroll down to see the HS sports section).

NYSSWA - This is the organization that puts out the weekly high school sports rankings from around the state. There are some other links to stories on there as well, though few of them are very interesting.

The Dilbert Blog - Okay, this has nothing to do about sports, but it's a funny blog written by Dilbert creator Scott Adams. Not much more to say than that...

Teagames.com - A cool little site with various games to play. I've especially gotten hooked on the Pitch & Putt golf game - I've been playing it practically constantly for the past three weeks, and I still haven't beat -10. You'll notice that a lot of the games are slightly modified versions of the others, but it's still a cool site.

Added 8/31: Dan Shanoff's Blog - Shanoff used to write a daily column every morning for ESPN.Com ("The Daily Quickie"), but then left for unknown reasons. But he started this blog, and most of his readers followed him to the blog. It will simply cover the biggest stories from around the world of sports, and the comments might be worth reading b/c of the number of readers.

Added 9/3: Sidelines - David Filkins and James Allen are the TU's lead football reporters, and they've started a blog to focus exclusively on high school football around the area. It's one of the few sources you can visit to get good high school sports coverage (hopefully this blog is another). And no, my blog's name is not a rip-off of theirs; I came up with mine two months before they did. (I'd like to think they copied me, but I doubt that's true.)

Added 9/19: Girmindl's Ghost - an awesome Shaker hoops blog written by Matt Glassman. Reading Matt's blog last year was basically what inspired me to write my blog this year. He's bringing it back this year, and I can't wait.

Random Notes

2006-07-25T14:00:00.000-04:00

Some random notes to mention from around the world of sports:

The White Sox traded for Mike MacDougal of the Royals yesterday. This was supposedly the partner deal to the Soriano deal that I mentioned yesterday (to fill the bullpen void dealing Brandon McCarthy would leave), but the Sox were looking for bullpen help even before the Soriano rumors. Ken Williams is now saying McCarthy will not be traded, which would put a damper on the Soriano-Sox trade talks. As always, I'll have a full deadline preview on Thursday.

Harold Reynolds was reportedly fired by ESPN at some point last night. The Worldwide Leader has been quiet so far publicly about this, and as of now nobody really knows the reason. Regardless of why he was fired, Reynolds will be sorely missed - most of the people discussing this that I've read liked Reynolds' work on Baseball Tonight, and I personally agree with them. I always liked Reynolds' work, and it's sad to see him leave.
Update (3:45 pm): Found some rumors on why Reynolds might have been fired; don't know if they're true or not.

Here's a cool site to check out - go to coolstandings.com to check out each team's odds of making the playoffs. The Tigers apparently have a 99.2% chance of making the playoffs, making my midseason predictions look wrong already. What seems surprising is the large edge the White Sox have over the Twins - despite the fact that they're only two games ahead in the standings (and the Twins are hot, while the Sox are slumping), they are listed as having a 15% greater chance of reaching the playoffs. What's even more interesting is that the gap has closed from a 60% differential before the All-Star break. But I'll let you explore the site on your own.

If you're a major baseball addict and looking for some more local blog coverage, you might want to try Jim Margalus' blog on the TU website. I wouldn't call it a must-read, but it's pretty interesting when he posts.

I don't have a link on this, but the Albany varsity basketball coaching job is open right now, with the departure of Doug O'Brey. Coach Black, the JV coach (and the brother of Nisky coach Mike Black), is expected to be the frontrunner for the job. Albany is expected to be a frontrunner for the section 2 AA title next year, along with CBA and Bishop Maginn (but you'll have to wait for winter for my full preview).

Vena Watch: Albany Conquest QB Ryan Vena threw for somewhere in the neighborhood of 260 yards last week, so he'll have to wait until the season finale at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to break the record. He only needs 50-60 yards to do it, so barring an injury or something spectacular out of the W-B defense, Vena should easily break the record.

A-Dud???

2006-07-24T15:45:00.000-04:00

I have a bone to pick with a certain segment of Yankee fans, but first some breaking news - ESPN's Tim Kurkjian reports that the White Sox are "extremely close" to dealing for Alfonso Soriano. The Nationals would recieve a package that would likely include pitcher Brandon McCarthy, who the Sox would replace by dealing for the Royals' Mike MacDougal. I'll have a complete deadline preview (again) up on Thursday, but this would be a huge deal if it goes down - division rival Detroit was previously considered the frontrunner for Soriano. Also, the Padres improved their bullpen by adding Scott Williamson from the Cubs, in return for a couple minor-league arms.

Now, I can't say I've ever really liked Yankee fans (with the exception of a short-lived infatuation with the team in fourth grade), but what's happened over the past week has been completely perplexing to me. Why do all Yankee fans hate A-Rod? It's not like this was hard to see coming - A-Rod has never really had the complete support of the Bronx faithful, even during his MVP campaign last year. But the guy's had one bad (okay, terrible) week, and suddenly everyone in the stadium is booing him? What's up with that?

I've never really understood the custom of booing players on your own team. A-Rod has only four hits in his last 26 ABs, with 5 errors in the past week - he knows he's in a slump. So it's not like you need to tell him he's performing poorly. How does booing him help him play better? If anyone has any reasons, please e-mail me and tell me. I really want to know. And it's not like Rodriguez has been playing terribly all year - his 71 RBIs are top-ten in the league, and his .379 OBP is barely off his career average. And the talk of him being bad in the clutch is ridiculous - he's hitting over .300 with runners in scoring position, and he has just about the same batting average in the postseason as the beloved Derek Jeter (with a slugging percentage 70 points higher).

So why boo A-Rod? The main reason - whether Yankee fans will admit it or not - is that he's not percieved as a "true" Yankee. Why? It's not his contract; if anything, having an enormous contract now is likely a sign that you're a Yankee (Jeter has a contract comperable in size to A-Rod). You don't have to come up in the Yankee farm system to become beloved by Yankee fans (see: Paul O'Neil). You don't even have to have a ring to be a true Yankee - Don Mattingly and Jason Giambi both have never won a title. Why does A-Rod remain an outcast? Your guess is as good as mine.

I'm not saying fans don't have the right to boo - when they pay for the ticket, they do earn the right to cheer, boo, or do whatever else they want that doesn't violate federal laws or common decency. But having the right to boo and feeling the need to boo are two different things. Adults in this country have the right to smoke cigarettes. Does that make it a smart decision? Of course not.

One other question jumps to mind - why have the Yankees been so reluctant to come to Rodriguez's defense? Mike Mussina recently threw A-Rod under the bus. Both Joe Torre and Jeter could ease the pressure on A-Rod by giving him some public support, but so far it's been quiet. I think Rodriguez will right himself sooner or later, but the longer this goes on, the less likely the Yankees are to make the playoffs. This year, he's been easily one of their two most productive hitters (along with Giambi), even with his struggles recently.

And one final note - why do people bother wasting energy about A-Rod trade rumors? Say it with me here: A-ROD WILL NEVER BE TRADED! 1) The Yankees shouldn't trade him - before the season, he was considered the second best hitter in baseball behind Pujols (and possibly Ortiz). Why should one week change our perception that dramatically? 2) The Yankees can't trade him - they would either have to eat his entire contract, or accept a paltry package of players in return. Either way, they'd be dramatically damaging their team. And 3) A-Rod won't go anyways - he has a full no-trade contract, and he's stated that he has no desire whatsoever to leave New York. People say he can't handle the NY pressure, but where were those people during his MVP season last year? It doesn't make sense to me.

MLB Trade Rumors

2006-07-20T16:18:00.000-04:00

I've decided to make the trade deadline preview a weekly thing. That means that, after last Thursday's post and today's post, I will do one more post previewing the deadline next Thursday, with four days left before the deadline. Things should be even crazier by then. Right now, there's still plenty of rumors to discuss. These are the rumors I've gathered from all the sources I could find, so in my opinion, it's the most complete source around. (Until I find somewhere else I haven't found yet). There isn't any "inside" info I have recieved directly; just a lot of free time spent surfing the web and trying to determine fact from fiction. I'll sort the discusstion by team to make my ramblings easier to read.

Boston - The Red Sox are searching hard for a starter, but there aren't many options. *All-Star* Mark Redman would make a lot of sense in Boston. They also have been interested in the White Sox's avaliable starters, Javier Vazquez and Freddy Garcia. It also looks like they need a reliever - one rumor has them sending Rudy Seanez or Julian Tavarez to Colorado for Ray King. Boston also may move Wily Mo Pena for a pitcher; interested suitors include the Cubs and Nationals.

Yankees - The Yankees have two needs - pitching and an outfielder. There have been many, many rumors about the Yankees trading for Soriano or Abreu (Steinbrenner recently stated that he prefers Soriano to Abreu), but it seems more likely that they deal for a lesser talent. Some of the players the Yankees have shown interest in: Shawn Green (D-Backs), Jose Guillen (Nationals), Kevin Mench (Rangers), and Reggie Sanders (Royals). But it seems like they should focus more on their largest need, which is pitching depth. As Keith Law said the other day, "Torre is going to grind Rivera into a half a pound of cake flour by Labor Day if he doesn't get another reliever he can trust." They have had talks with Pittsburgh about Roberto Hernandez and with Chicago about Scott Williamson.

Toronto - The Blue Jays' main mission at this point is to trade Shea Hillenbrand, who was cut yesterday after a strange dispute between him and the team. Right now, the most likely destination seems to be the Padres, who need a third baseman. Other places he could land include the Angels, Rangers, or Twins. They had been talking about trading Hillenbrand to the Angels Adam Kennedy even before this incident, though those talks have subsided recently. The Jays also may or may not be interested in Tampa Bay's Julio Lugo.

Baltimore - Are the Orioles buyers or sellers? They're way out of the race, and they should try to rebuild and move on, but they have been involved in some talks for bigger names. Peter Angelos is notoriously impatient, and unless they blow things up and try to stock some prospects, they're going to remain at the bottom of the AL East for the rest of the decade. According to reports, Angelos said two weeks ago that All-star shortstop Miguel Tejada will not be traded. But Tejada's name has still been rumored in all kinds of deals, the most recent of which has him going to Houston. They can never decide what to do, and they always make the wrong decision - the Orioles could become the New York Knicks of baseball in a couple years, you heard it here first. The Orioles also are likely to move pitcher Rodrigo Lopez - the Mets are the most likely destination, though they've talked with the Phillies about including him in a deal for Abreu or Pat Burrell. Arizona, St. Louis, San Diego, Texas, and the Yankees have also been interested in Lopez.

Tampa Bay - Right now, Julio Lugo is the only Devil Ray on the market, now that they've traded away Aubrey Huff. Toronto is probably in the market for Lugo, as are the Mets.

Detroit - The Tigers need a left-handed bat. They've been involved in talks for both big names (Soriano and Abreu). Soriano may not be a good fit for the Tigers - he's right-handed, and the Tigers' biggest offensive need is on-base percentage, a stat Soriano doesn't help much in (though Abreu would serve that need nicely). To get Soriano, the Tigers would likely have to trade away top pitching prospect Humberto Sanchez, Jair Jurrjens, plus another player. The St. Paul Pioneer Press said that the Tigers are close to acquiring Abreu, though I believe Jim Leyland said that there had been no talks between them and the Phillies. The Tigers also had some interest in Tejada, though he most likely won't end up there. Another option for the Tigers is to not deal for anybody - they have Dimitri Young returning to their team soon, so they might not need another bat.

White Sox - The White Sox are looking for relief help, but Kenny Williams always has the potential to make some big blockbuster that nobody saw coming. The previously rumored Schmidt-for-McCarthy deal seems dead now, but the Sox are still trying to deal. They have some attractive trade bait in Javier Vazquez and Freddy Garcia, who both have ERAs over 5, but still are arguably the best pitchers on the market. There are not many relievers avaliable now, though they would certainly be interested in Tom Gordon if he were to become avaliable, and they seem to have interest in Pittsburgh's Roberto Hernandez.

Minnesota - If the Twins are going to make the playoffs, they're going to need a corner outfielder, now that Shannon Stewart and Torii Hunter have gone down with injuries (and Jason Kubel hasn't been 100% healthy either). If they do want to deal, Kevin Mench would be a possibility. But, realistically, they're probably going to wait 'till next year and not rush into any deals. There have been many of teams (including the Dodgers, Brewers, Cards and Yankees) scouting Kyle Lohse, though I have no idea whether or not he's avaliable.

Cleveland - The Indians have a lot of pieces that teams might want that the Indians are trying to move. They already dealt Bob Wickman to the Braves for a prospect (Max Ramirez), and Aaron Boone seems to be the other piece they are actively trying to ship. They also may deal 2B Ronnie Belliard or SP Jake Westbrook, but those deals don't seem as likely. One rumor has them dealing Boone to the Dodgers, presumably for some major-league ready prospects.

Kansas City - The Royals are a source of pitching for some other teams to ~~trade for~~ plunder. Mark Redman is the most obvious choice, though relievers Elmer Dessens, Jeremy Affeldt, and Mike MacDougal also could leave. The Royals are trying to package one of their relievers plus Angel Berroa to Colorado for Ryan Shealy.

Oakland - Billy Beane's been pretty quiet so far - a bit too quiet, some might say. Maybe Beane has a large deal up his sleeve, or maybe he's just content with his team. Barry Zito seems to be off the block for now, though they would be tempted to rethink that if the Mets were to offer top prospects Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman.

~~Anaheim~~ LA Angels - The Angels have the pieces to deal for Soriano, but as I mentioned last week, they have a history of never trading their prospects for big names. They have given no indication so far that they intend to break that trend this year. Also, the Angels have OBP issues just as the Tigers do (see the Detroit section for more info), so Soriano might not be the best fit there either. They will likely try to move 2B Adam Kennedy to create space for young phenom Howie Kendrick to play every day, but so far they haven't had much luck.

Texas - The Rangers have been fairly quiet around the deadline, though they have some major holes in their rotation they have to fill if they want to win the division. On paper, the Rangers have arguably the best team in the West, but it's hard to see the Rangers going on a large run with guys like John Rheinecker and John Wasdin pitching every day. They also might trade away Kevin Mench, possibly to the Yankees for Shawn Chacon or to the Twins for a pitching prospect.

Seattle - Seattle has been pretty quiet of late, although they have been interested in Alfonso Soriano. They apparently have the pieces to get a deal done with the Nationals, but a deal seems unlikely - the Nats would demand top prospect Adam Jones in return (along with other prospects), who the Mariners say is not avaliable. Reliever Rafael Soriano is highly coveted, though I don't know if he's avaliable or not.

Mets - It's strange that the most action is revolving around a team that's 11 games in first place. But the Mets need pitching. That's pretty much all there is to it. Omar Minaya will do anything he can to try to get another pitcher in the rotation. Rookie Mike Pelfrey has been pretty good lately, but there's still another rotation slot that needs filling. The Mets have been interested in just about everybody on the block. Livan Hernandez still seems to be a likely name, but there are other rumors floating about. They've been interested in the White Sox's starters, Garcia and Vazquez. They've had talks with the A's about Zito, but they might be reluctant to make that deal (Oakland has requested Aaron Heilman and Lastings Milledge). They've been also hot in talks with Orioles' starter Rodrigo Lopez, which at one point seemed likely but has cooled off of late. They've scouted Miguel Batista and Juan Cruz of the Diamondbacks, though neither of them are likely to be traded. And now it seems like there may be a blockbuster on the horizon: The Mets and Phillies seem to be talking about a deal for Bobby Abreu, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. The Mets would give up top prospect Lastings Milledge, along with some other prospects, to get Abreu.

Atlanta - They already filled their biggest need today with the Wickman deal (with Cleveland), to get another reliever. That could make the Braves the favorite in the wild-card race. I also saw a story about Greg Maddux returning to Atlanta, though I'm pretty sure it was mostly wishful thinking (the story was published in the Daily Southtown, if you want to find it).

Philly - GM Pat Gillick said that he would wait two weeks to determine whether or not the Phillies were a legit contender to make the postseason. He said that at the All-Star break, so they will likely wait another week or so before selling off their high-priced players. Two of the most sought-after players on that team are corner outfielders Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell. The Phillies have said that they will trade one of them, but not both. It might be difficult to get good talent back for either of them though; both players have large contracts. If Abreu gets dealt, he will recieve an extension on his contract for 2008 that would result in a club needing to pay him in the neighborhood of $33 million over the next two years. That price tag might scare away teams, as he's already 32 years old and he mysteriously lost his power about one year ago. But there are still a lot of teams with interest, including the Tigers and the Yankees. The Phils also have the best reliever on the market in Tom Gordon, if they wish to make him avaliable. In some late-breaking news, the Phils and Mets may have an Abreu deal in the works (see the Mets section for more detail).

Florida - The Marlins aren't really involved in any talks right now. Dontrelle Willis is off the block for now, and the Fish are happy with their stock of young players.

Washington - Obviously the biggest player here is Alfonso Soriano. Soriano has been rumored to go to the Tigers, Yankees, and basically everywhere on the West Coast. But, right now, the asking price may be a little too high. They're asking for three good prospects in return for Soriano, which might be too steep a price for a two-month rental. They also may deal Livan Hernandez (likely to the Mets) or Jose Guillen (probably to the Yankees, though that deal now seems unlikely).

St. Louis - The Cards really need to make a move if they're going to advance far in the playoffs (Wait, didn't I pick them to win the Series a week ago? Uggh...). They desperately need starting pitching, and they could really use a left fielder as well. Abreu would be a nice fit for the Cards, though I'm not sure they would want to pay him for the next three years. But don't ever count out GM Walt Jocketty as far as the deadline is concerned - he has made some blockbuster deals at the deadline in the past and could definitely do it again.

Cincy - The Reds already pulled off their big trade last week, and it looks like they'll enter August with pretty much the team they have right now.

Milwaukee - There was a rumor over the weekend that the Brewers contacted the Phillies about outfielder Bobby Abreu. However, there appears to be no truth to those rumors - GM Doug Melvin never even spoke to the Phillies, and the rumor was placed by an executive on another team. The Brewers have decided they're contenders, meaning Carlos Lee will not be traded.

Houston - Some stories broke today about Houston trying to work out a deal for Miguel Tejada. Baltimore's shortstop is supposedly off the block, but who knows what the Orioles are going to do next at this point? The Huff deal may free up Houston to deal Morgan Ensberg, presumably to the Padres. The Astros also are considering dealing for the Pirates' Damaso Marte, who helped the White Sox become champions last year, to bolster their bullpen. They're trying to deal Willy Tavares as well.

Cubs - Greg Maddux is certainly the biggest name being mentioned in trade talks, if not the most talented. Will his good outing yesterday jack up the price too high or will it pique other teams' interest? In a Jerry Crasnick survey (you can't read it unless you're an ESPN Insider), 13 of 15 GMs said Maddux would be traded, with the likely destination the Dodgers (and that was before yesterday). The Dodgers have more than enough talent to get a deal done, and one rumor I saw this morning had the Cubs packaging Maddux with third baseman Aramis Ramirez to LA, presumably for a few good prospects. They also may deal Scott Williamson, possibly to the Yankees. They apparently have interest in the Astros' Willy Tavares (that's just what the Cubs need - another poor-hitting, speedy centerfielder to go with Juan Pierre).

Pittsburgh - The Pirates have arguably the best reliever on the market in Roberto Hernandez, which could bring in some good talent, given the high price the Reds-Nats deal set for relievers and the lack of relievers on the market. Some talks have them sending Hernandez to the Yankees, though talks involving the Yankees are often overblown. Damaso Marte also may be avaliable for contenders looking for relief help. Sean Casey and Craig Wilson are both players who could be moved by the deadline.

LA Dodgers - If the Dodgers want to make a big splash, they certainly have the prospects to make a deal. Their farm system is arguably the most loaded in baseball, along with the Angels and Diamondbacks. They are looking for a third baseman - they have been involved with talks for the Indians' Aaron Boone and the Cubs' Aramis Ramirez. The aforementioned Maddux deal does make sense, and many baseball executives believe Maddux will end up in LA. I wouldn't be so optimistic, however - before yesterday's good start, Maddux was 2-10 with a 6.43 ERA since April. And the Cubs will be asking for a lot in return for the futer HOF'er.

San Diego - The Padres seem like the most likey destination for former Blue Jay Shea Hillenbrand, as they desperately need a third baseman. The biggest problem is that Hillenbrand is a poor defensive third baseman; he's a better fit as a first baseman. The Padres will also have interest in the Astros' Morgan Ensberg, if he's avaliable. Also, I read something this morning in SI.Com's Truth and Rumors about the Padres potentially dealing Brian Giles, though that seems extremely unlikely.

San Fransisco - The Giants gravely need a first baseman. There are no top-level players out there, but there are some servicable players the Giants could deal for. Craig Wilson (Pirates 1B) seems like the most likely option, though there is speculation that they could deal for the Orioles' Javy Lopez, who allegedly wants out of Baltimore.

Colorado - The Rockies are looking for relievers - possible deals include the aforementioned Ray King for Rudy Seanez swap with Boston, as well as trading with Kansas City for Elmer Dessens or Jeremy Affeldt.

Arizona - The D-Backs have talked with the Yankees about trading outfielder Shawn Green, and likely would not demand much back in return, as they're trying to dump Green's $9.5 million contract for next year and open space for prospects. If the Yankees look somewhere else (or even if they deal Green), the D-Backs may try to deal some of their many prospects for another pitcher (such as Jake Westbrook of the Indians), or just bide their time and let their prospects develop. There has been interest in starters Miguel Batista and Juan Cruz, though Arizona will be reluctant to deal either if they're still in contention.

Sources include ESPN.com, msn.foxsports.com, www.mlbtraderumors.com/, www.prosportsdaily.com/mlb/mlbrumors.html, sportsillustrated.cnn.com, and cbs.sportsline.com/.

Wow, I just spent 2 hours and 3,000 words on this post. Hopefully someone reads it...

Top Ten NFL

2006-07-19T14:01:00.000-04:00

[Note: This is part three in a three-part series. Earlier leagues I covered were the MLB and the NBA.]

Part Three in my series of the top ten players in each league. Today we do the NFL. The NFL is the hardest of the leagues to compare players in, because of the completely different tasks assigned to each position. But I'm doing it anyways, to complete the series.

A quick refresher of the rules:

The top ten are determined by this question: If the NFL folded today, and teams started over and drafted their team from the pool of active players, who would go first? And who would go second? Keep going down the line like that.

Contracts do not matter. This doesn't matter as much in the NFL as in baseball, because most top rookies get a pretty big payday anyways. But I'm keeping it this way to keep it consistent with the other sports, and because I don't have to research all the contracts. Current contracts would be voided, and it would work like the rookie draft in all the sports - you'd get a contract based on where you were picked.

Age does matter. You could pick Brett Favre, but he'd only be around for another year or two. Or you could pick Carson Palmer, and have him for the next 10 years. Who is more valuable?

And a new one for the NFL...

Skill position players only. This means that, right now, I'm only dealing with quarterbacks, running backs, and wide recievers. I don't know where the first offensive lineman or defensive player would be picked, and frankly I don't care. To make things much easier, only skill position players are considered for this list.

On to the top ten. If the league folded today, and you could pick any one player, who would it be? I'm going to surprise you here...

1. Tom Brady

It was a VERY tough decision between Brady and Peyton Manning. The two are the top quarterbacks in the game today, but I went with Brady because he has the rings and he's a bit younger. Manning does have the better numbers, but not that much better. Brady's 26 TD passes were third in the league last year, and he threw for more yards last year than anyone in football (even Manning). And, in football, the numbers are sometimes misleading - a QB surrounded by great WRs and/or a great RB can have his stats inflated because of the talent around him. That's not the case in baseball, where the stats are isolated - it's just the pitcher against the batter. Brady is the pick, though I can't blame you for picking either of the next two.

2. Peyton Manning

All he needs is a ring. Not much more to say than that. He doesn't have a whole lot of time left, however, as he's already 30. After seeing Favre last year, it looks like Manning probably only has 5-6 productive years left.

3. Carson Palmer

Palmer is the youngest of the three QBs (26), and arguably has the most upside. It would be very tempting for a GM to take Palmer with either of the first two picks, but I would wait until #3 to pick him because of the injury he suffered in the playoffs last year. You never know how that might affect a person. Palmer was the only QB last year with more than 30 TD passes, and he was second only to Manning in QB rating. He is surrounded by a talented running back in Rudi Johnson, and he has some great recievers to throw to. What remains to be seen is whether he will end up resembling Joe Montana or Peyton Manning, in terms of titles won.

4. LaDainian Tomlinson

Tomlinson is not the best pure rusher in the league; that title would go to Shaun Alexander or maybe Larry Johnson, after his strong showing at the end of last year. But Tomlinson gets the fourth pick on this list because of his greatness as a recieving option - Tomlinson has caught over 50 passes every year in the league, including a remarkable 100-reception season in '03. Because of his versatility, Tomlinson gets picked first among the RBs.

5. Larry Johnson

Johnson was fourth in the league in rushing last season - and he was only playing full-time for the last nine weeks! LJ's stats over the last nine weeks of the season projected to something like 2400 years, if he had kept that up for a full season. Plus, he's only 26 years old, so he's got an extra couple years on the other running backs.

6. Shaun Alexander

He was the MVP of the league last year, but Alexander is still the last of the Big Three RB's to go due to his age. Alexander's been in the league for six years, and he's been a starter for basically all six. He's not a big guy, so you've got to wonder how long it will take for him to start to break down. I'd rather have Tomlinson's recieving abilities or Johnson's youth.

7. Eli Manning

No, I'm not being a Giants homer here - nobody I know roots harder against the Giants than I do. (Maybe I'm a contrarian - I root against pretty much all the New York teams.) But I think putting Manning here is fair - he needs to work on his completion percentage, but his other stats all look pretty good, and he didn't have great recievers to throw to. Plus, he's only 25, he has that Manning pedigree, and he's proven that he can handle the New York media. Maybe it's a bit of a stretch, but I'm not sure who else would go in this spot.

8. Reggie Bush

Is this too high for someone who's never set foot on an NFL field? Maybe. But I think some GM would be willing to take Bush this high purely on potential alone - if he can continue to play like his college self, he could be the most electrifying player since Bo Jackson. Bush seems like he can combine Deion Sanders' agility, Tomlinson's recieving ability, and a wide reciever's speed. If you're really offended, you can switch Bush with the next pick if you want.

9. Donovan McNabb

McNabb was not good last year, I'll give you that. But, in case you forgot, he was playing hurt for a while. And he made four consecutive NFC championship games without having any real legitimate threats to help him out (remember, T.O. was hurt until the Super Bowl in the year that they finally made it there). The only concern with picking him this high is his age - he'll turn 30 during next season, and he's taken quite a few hits over his careers.

10. Michael Vick

I know, I know, we've heard it all before. You can't win the Super Bowl with a running quarterback. Vick won't win until he becomes a pocket passer. But if you were a GM in the top ten, wouldn't you consider drafting him, just on his talent alone? He's only 26 years old. Wouldn't you want to try to draft Vick, then try to get him a WR to throw to in the second round (remember, he hasn't ever had that)? And, if someone else drafted him later, surrounded him with talent, and won a Super Bowl, wouldn't you be kicking yourself for all of eternity for not thinking of it? I'd give it a shot.

Just Missed:

Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald - They're both great talents, but they're both wide recievers. And taking a wide reciever in the top ten doesn't seem right, when they need a QB to get them the ball.

Ben Roethlisberger - His motorcycle incident won't affect his play one bit, but I don't think he's quite good enough to make this list. He did win the Super Bowl last year, but it wasn't really his doing - he had some great players around him (and a great defense) that played a larger part in their championship run.

Matt Hasselbeck - Yes, Hasselbeck is a very underrated player. But, if you could have one player to build your team around for the next ten years, would you really take Hasselbeck over Vick? Really? I don't buy it.

Matt Leinart, Vince Young - Both of them have the potential to be great, and they're both obviously young, but there are too many questions surrounding each of them to take them over a more proven talent.

Top Ten NBA

2006-07-17T13:22:00.000-04:00

[Note: This is part two in a three-part series. The other leagues I covered were the MLB and the NFL.]

Part Two in my series of the top ten players in each league. Today we do the NBA. The NBA is the easiest of the leagues to compare players in, because everybody has the same basic goal - put the ball in the hoop. In baseball, you have to compare hitters to pitchers, and in football, you have to compare people doing all kinds of different things. Unfortunately, I don't know as much about the NBA as I do the other two major leagues. So if there's anything that seems out of line, feel free to e-mail me and tell me why I'm a moron.

A quick refresher of the rules:

The top ten are determined by this question: If the NBA folded today, and teams started over and drafted their team from the pool of active players, who would go first? And who would go second? Keep going down the line like that.

Contracts do not matter. This doesn't matter as much in the NBA as in the other sports. But obviously, you'd rather pay Chris Paul a couple million instead of paying KG $22 million per year. But, if contracts mattered, then too much of the top ten would be young guys still on their rookie contracts. And those players tend to get new contracts as soon as they can. Contracts would be voided, and it would work like the rookie draft in all the sports - you'd get a contract based on where you were picked.

Age does matter. You could pick Shaq, but he'd only be around for a year or two. Or you could pick Dwight Howard, and have him for the next 15 years. Who is more valuable?

So, if the league folded today, and the Knicks had the first pick, who would they take? With the first pick, Isiah Thomas selects...Renaldo Balkman!

(Note to Knicks fans: If you're feeling homicidal right now, cross out "Isiah Thomas" and "Renaldo Balkman", and replace them with "Joe Dumars" and "Darko Milicic" respectively. That's it - laugh a little, you're not the only ones with problems. The sun will come up tomorrow. Well, unless Isiah Thomas becomes God and manages the Earth like he managed the CBA*. Okay, okay, I'll move on...)

In all seriousness, the first pick is...

1. LeBron James

I know Dwyane Wade impressed people with his performance in the NBA playoffs. Many people who look at the last month and disregard the big picture might make a case to put Wade first. But could you really hand your card to David Stern, with LeBron on the board, and say, "No thanks, I'd rather have Wade"? Over LeBron James? James is the next Jordan in every sense, when talking about off-the-court issues - he's a great guy, he's extremely marketable, and he's the next global icon. You'd really give that up?

2. Dwyane Wade

Wade, then, has to be the second pick. He took that Miami team on his back - he got a couple clutch shots from various teammates, but for the most part it was Wade and four guys watching him. He's proved he can win a title almost singlehandedly, so there's no reason not to take him here.

3. Kobe Bryant

Kobe is a big enough name that your team will certainly get attention, though Kobe is not very well-liked by the public. But he sure can score. Of course he won't look to dish the ball as much, but if your first pick is this high, you won't have much talent around him (assuming it's a snake draft; this team would then get the 60th overall pick in the second round).

4. Tim Duncan

Duncan is getting up there in years, and the game is changing to make power forwards (those without extreme athleticism) less valuable. But Duncan is still Duncan, and it's hard to argue with the three rings on his finger. But his play during the end of the year last year and in the playoffs was a concern - he was basically giving you 15-10's (points, rebounds per game). I don't think you can win a title without Duncan putting in at least 20 PPG.

5. Dwight Howard

Howard averaged 16-13 last year, good enough for second place in rebounds per game. He's stuck on a bad Magic team, so he doesn't get quite the publicity he might if he were on a better team. But he's only 20 years old! He's still got another 4-5 years until he hits his prime.

6. Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk looked like the best player in the NBA until Game 3 of the Finals, when he mysteriously stopped driving to the hoop. But if he can find it again, he's going to be a perennial MVP candidate, because a quick big man who can drive and has a jumper is a great commodity in today's game.

7. Yao Ming

Yao quietly putaveraged 26-11 after the All-Star break last year, until he broke his foot near the end of the year. And, as Bill Simmons points out, most great centers peaked later in their careers (28-30 years old). Yao's only 25. He could go from being a second-tier star to being an MVP candidate one of these years.

8. Steve Nash

He was the MVP award winner last year. Now, most people outside of Phoenix will probably agree with me when I say that LeBron or Kobe would have been a better choice, but nobody has benefited more from the NBA rule changes than Nash - suddenly a running point guard who can dish the ball well in transition and can't play defense is a valued commodity.

9. Gilbert Arenas

Arenas averaged almost 30 PPG last year, and he's still only 24. Plus, Arenas was great in the playoffs last year, basically matching LeBron shot-for-shot. He's certainly not as marketable as the King or anyone else on this list, but he can definitely help you win. And, in the end, that's all that matters.

10. Kevin Garnett

KG used to be arguably the best player in the game, then he suddenly lost it overnight. He's already 30, and since he came straight out of high school, he's an older 30 than some of the college kids would be. But KG has really never had anybody around him to give him any help. If you got a good second scoring option in the second round, KG's team could become a title threat.

Just missed the cut:

Amare Stoudemire - If he didn't miss the full year last year, he would have easily been in the top ten. He probably has top-5 talent, and he's only 23. But, as Simmons also points out in the above linked column, NBA stars never regain their previous form after a full-season injury. It just doesn't happen. We'll see if Stoudemire can break that trend.

Elton Brand - Brand is a great talent, but probably not as good as the others above him on this list. I believe I initially had him at 10, but bumped him off when I thought about how little help KG's had.

Chris Bosh, Chris Paul - We'll see if either of them can develop into top stars. Right now, I don't think either of them are quite at that level yet. When (if?) I do this column next year, one or both of them could easily be in the top 10.

Allen Iverson - I know AI was second in PPG last year, but how much longer can he keep this up? He's taken a beating over the years - he's second among active players in career free throws attempted (behind Shaq), and he's a small guy. I don't blame any NBA teams from staying away from him this summer.

*If you don't know this story, Isiah Thomas owned the CBA from 1998-2000. During that time, the league went bankrupt and eventually folded. Many of the managers blamed Isiah's mismanagement of the league for the league folding.

Top Ten MLB

2006-07-16T14:32:00.000-04:00

[Note: This is part one in a three-part series. The other leagues I covered were the NBA and the NFL.]

Fairly slow day in sports today, so it's time to start my newest series of posts: top ten lists for each of the ~~four~~ three major sports. Today I'll start with the MLB, because frankly it's the one I know most about. Here are the rules:

The top ten are determined by this question: If the MLB folded today, and teams started over and drafted their team from the pool of active players, who would go first? And who would go second? Keep going down the line like that.

Contracts do not matter. Obviously, you'd rather pay David Wright $400K instead of paying A-Rod $25 million per year. But, if contracts mattered, then all the top ten would be young guys still on their rookie contracts (Wright, Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, etc). And those players tend to get new contracts within a year or two anyways. Contracts would be voided, and they would work like the rookie draft in all the sports - you'd get a contract based on where you were picked.

Age does matter. You could pick Roger Clemens, but he'd only be around for a year or two. Or you could pick Fransisco Liriano, and have him for the next 15 years. Which is more valuable?

So, if the league folded today, and the Royals had the first pick, who would they take? In baseball, that's an easy question.

1. Albert Pujols

Pujols is far and away the best player on the board, especially when you take age into consideration. Although he has been around for a little while now, he's still only 26 years old - on the front edge of his prime, according to conventional wisdom. (Generally, a player's prime will be from age 26-30, with 27 being the typical "peak" year. I'm not sure if this is actually true, but it's what everyone thinks.) Pujols is easily the best hitter in baseball, and he (along with David Ortiz) is the player you'd want batting for you in the bottom of the ninth. Pujols has seven walk-off homers in his career (tied with Ortiz; the active leader is Bonds with 10), and he's only in his sixth year in the big leagues! His career up to this point, according to baseballreference.com, is most similar to that of Joe DiMaggio, a guy you've probably heard of. And he seems to get better and better - he's a very good first baseman, despite the fact that he's arguably the slowest runner in baseball.

2. David Wright

I think Wright has to be the #2 pick, taking into account his age (23), his marketability, and his production. Wright is a top MVP candidate already, and he's definitely one of the best defensive third baseman in the game today. He's currently on pace for 36 HRs and 136 RBI, and young players typically build their power even more as they get older. Wright would clearly be the second pick.

3. Alex Rodriguez

I know, most people aren't going to like having A-Rod this high, but I think he deserves it. Remember, contracts don't matter - his $25 million per year will be ripped up and replaced with a more sensible one. He has been in the big leagues for seemingly forever, but he's actually only 30 years old - you can get a good 8-10 more years out of this guy. And you can't argue with the production: He's on pace for 35 HRs and 100 RBI while batting in a depleted Yankee lineup, and those numbers would be considered a disappointment! Everyone wants to talk about how terrible he is in the clutch, but that's ridiculous - he's hitting .302 with runners on, .314 with runners in scoring position, and - remember this - .556 with the bases loaded (with a 1.222 slugging percentage)! Compare those numbers with his .284 overall average this year, and you'll be as befuddled as I am at why Yankee fans continue to boo him.

4. Jose Reyes

And you wonder why the Mets are doing so well this year. Reyes at four might seem like a bit of a stretch, but I think it's warranted - Reyes is only 23 as well, and he has outperformed everyone's expectations this year. Reyes is leading the league (easily) with 39 SBs, and has a .300 batting average as well. His batting eye is still a bit of a concern, but Reyes is improving that - he's on pace for 58 walks this year, as compared to only 27 last year. The most surprising thing this year has been Reyes' power - his slugging percentage this year is almost 100 points higher than last year (.481 vs .387). We'll have to see if Reyes can keep this up - he's suffering with a minor pinkie injury right now, but he should be back in the lineup before too long - but right now he's one of the top players in baseball.

5. Miguel Cabrera

It's a fairly large surprise that three of my top five picks are third basemen, but that shows the depth of the position this year (and in the future). A-Rod, Wright, and Cabrera have a chance to be the new "Big Three", much like A-Rod, Nomar, and Jeter used to be as shortstops. Cabrera also happens to be only 23 years old, but he has something that nobody else above him does - a World Series ring. Cabrera also is versitile; he's played both corner outfield positions earlier in his career and I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved to first base sometime down the road (when he's in his mid-30s). Cabrera has had a .320 batting average and a .550 slugging percentage for each of the last two years, and this year he's improved his batting eye as well - he's on pace for almost 100 walks. He should also drive in more than 100 runs for the third year in a row despite playing in a very young Marlins lineup.

6. Johan Santana

Santana is the first pitcher to go. Pitching is, by its nature, harder to predict than pitching, so good pitchers would not be drafted as high as good hitters. But Santana has maintained his greatness since his breakout '04 season, and he's only 27. Santana should finish with 15+ wins, a sub-3 ERA, and a sub-1 WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched; a pitcher with a 3.00 ERA will usually have a WHIP slightly above 1) for the third straight year. Good pitchers come and go, but Santana should be at the top of your rotation for the next decade.

7. Joe Mauer

Santana's batterymate gets picked right behind him, for good reason. Mauer is only 23, he's hitting .373 this year, and he has decent speed. And oh yeah - he's a catcher! Mauer could easily go a bit higher than this, maybe in the top five, but catchers' skills tend to decline more rapidly as they age, and they come down with more injuries than position players. But finding a catcher who can give you decent offensive production is not easy, and catchers who can give you MVP-caliber numbers come along once in a blue moon. Any GM who saw Mauer on the board with the seventh pick would jump at the chance to take him.

8. David Ortiz

He's already 30 years old, he doesn't play the field, he's hitting .280 right now, and he was once released by the offense-lacking Minnesota Twins. But Ortiz would definitely be picked at eight, if not sooner. Ortiz can give you incredible production at the plate - 32 HRs and a .617 SLG already - and nobody wants to pitch to him with the game on the line. Team him up with another good, Manny-esque hitter, and you've got a great offense already. Ortiz is an RBI machine - he's on pace for 165 RBI as well.

9. Ryan Howard

Howard is a very talented young player who (as the Derby showed) can hit the ball a long ways. Howard is actually 26 years old, although he has only been in the league for a short time (he won Rookie of the Year last year). He's on pace to hit 55 homers in just his second full season, and he has an even .600 slugging percentage. He doesn't walk as much as someone with his power usually does, but that's partly from pitchers not pitching around him (due to his lack of a track record). Howard doesn't quite have the ceiling of an Albert Pujols, but he could definitely become a great player someday.

10. Carlos Beltran

The Mets' third selection is enjoying a breakout year as he rounds out the top ten. Beltran is 29 years old and hitting only .276, but that is fairly misleading. He is on pace for almost 100 walks and 45 HRs, despite missing some time early in the season due to an injury. His power numbers have really jumped this year - his .597 SLG would be his career high by 50 points. Beltran has been running a little less now that he is in New York, but he still has the potential to steal at any time (which you already know if you saw the All-Star game).

Also recieving consideration:

Jason Bay, Vernon Wells - The two 27-year-old outfielders are enjoying very good seasons in their respective small-market cities. Neither has quite the talent to make this list, although Wells might vault into the top ten with another stellar season.

Travis Hafner - Hafner is arguably the best overall hitter in the AL right now, despite not making the all-star team. He's a little older than most people on this list (29), but he's leading the majors in OPS and is building quite a name for himself. Like Ortiz, Hafner can't play the field, and he doesn't quite have the track record that some of these other players have. If he keeps hitting like this, though, he'll find himself in the top ten very soon.

Roy Halladay - Halladay would definitely be picked within the next three or four picks, due to his talent and track record. He just doesn't quite have the potential of Santana, which kept him off the list. But Halladay's consistancy would be hard to pass up in the top fifteen.

- Frankie Liriano and Felix Hernandez would probably be the top two young pitchers taken, though Jered Weaver has been great this year and there are plenty of other good young pitchers, such as Jon Paplebon and Justin Verlander. But I wouldn't take any of these pitchers over proven guys like Halladay, Santana, or the aforementioned hitters. Sure, these guys have great upside, and they could be pitching for the next 15 years. But taking a pitcher who doesn't have three or four years already under his belt is extremely risky. Three years ago, if you had done this, Mark Prior would probably have been in the top ten, if not the top three or five. And where is he now? It doesn't take much to throw a young hurler off track. I'd hold off on picking these guys until probably the second half of the first round.

Who am I?

2006-07-15T17:32:00.000-04:00

My name is Kevin Whitaker. I am currently a student at Niskayuna HS, class of 2009. I am a sports fanatic, though the only one I play seriously anymore is baseball. I also have an internship with the sports department at WNYT (the local NBC station), which allows me to see lots of local sports for free. Other than that, I don't really have any special qualifications to write this blog except a lot of free time.

One of my other interests is music; I play jazz piano and bass guitar. You can view my profile, though I'm not sure it has any more info than what I've told you here.

You can contact me at betweenthelines@nycap.rr.com.

The Best Job in Sports

2006-07-14T15:09:00.000-04:00

There is one man right now who is probably the most powerful person in the sports business. This man has basically total control of his sport, and nothing gets done without him approving it. I'll give you three guesses to who this person is (hint: it's not George Steinbrenner).

Okay, time's up. The most powerful person in sports is: David Stern.

It might not be evident on the surface, but David Stern is the NBA. Think about it. What changes have occured in the NBA over the last couple of years? The referees have let offense-minded players (and especially those who drive to the hoop) take over the game over the last year or so. In about the same timeframe, the most marketable players in the league changed from being big guys (Duncan, Shaq, KG) and are instead young, small guys who drive to the hoop (LeBron, Wade, Kobe). Coincidence?

Let's look at some of the other most important changes of the past couple years. Remember the dress code being implemented? Stern wanted a dress code. The players' union was furious, and they would not have a dress code. In the end, Stern got his dress code.

David Stern also wanted an age minimum implemented, which would force the best high schoolers to spend a year in college before going pro. The players' union didn't want it - many of them came straight from high school, and they didn't want the incoming young kids to get shafted. What happened? Stern got his age minimum*.

Remember the Artest melee in Detroit, when he got suspended for the year and just about everyone else on the Pacers served some sort of suspension? When they felt the suspensions were unfair and wanted to appeal them, who did they have to appeal to? David Stern. Guess what happened?

To borrow an analogy from ESPNRadio's Erik Kuselias, Stern is like Fidel Castro, and the NBA is like Cuba - nothing gets done without Stern's consent. It's the opposite of in baseball - while the MLBPA has most of the power and the owners usually get shafted (with the exception of the steroid testing), Stern always gets his way in the NBA, where the players association might as well not exist.

And that leads me into my second point - I would not be surprised one bit if Stern were to implement a rule in the near future that would help teams keep their young superstars more easily. Instead of signing the traditional five-year max contracts with their respective teams, LeBron, Wade, and Chris Bosh all opted to sign "three plus one" contracts - three years plus a player option for a fourth year. Since this leaves open the possibility of LeBron bolting earlier, I would expect Stern to soon give Cleveland all the help he can.

Why? Although I know Stern would love for the game's biggest star (LeBron) to go to a big market like New York, Chicago, or Boston, he's a very smart guy - he knows that if LeBron did bolt for New York, the conspiracy theorists would be all over Stern and people would complain that the league was too much in favor of big-market teams. LeBron is a big enough name to draw people anywhere, and if the Cavs could keep LeBron for the duration of his career, it would seem like a big victory for the little guy, and the parity of the league would go up. If LeBron were to leave Cleveland, it would make it seem like Stern is doing anything he can to make the game more marketable, even if it sacrifices the game's integrity. Stern is too smart for that.

(However, the downside to changing these rules for Stern is found in Chris Bosh. Bosh is a great player as well, but he doesn't have the big name that LeBron does, and while he would be a superstar in New York or Chicago, he's not going to get nearly enough attention up in Toronto. I don't know what Stern's going to do about that. Wade's already in a big market, and he's not going to leave Miami for a while, no matter what Stern does.)

By the way, most people think LeBron signed the deal so he could leave Cleveland after the 2010 season, because he thinks the team won't get much better. I don't think he was thinking about the competitiveness of the Cavs - in today's NBA, a team with one superstar always has a chance to go deep into the playoffs. In my opinion, LeBron's choice was purely a financial one - he can get more money if he waits for a couple years, because the new collective barganing agreement will raise the max contract value from the current $80 million up to a projected $150 million. I think that's the only reason LeBron chose that deal - Wade signed the same contract, and he's certainly in no hurry to leave Miami.

*Made you look.